Wilma main thread

[Dustin]

Summary and overview
Wilma made it to TS status this morning! With a deep bloom of convection and a look at the visible stellitle loop I would have to agree. She has gotten better defined than she look only 12 hrs ago which is justified for a weak TS. Wilma ties us for the most active season ever with 1933, One more storm and we will break the record! Wilma already has made history nomatter what it does!

Intesiacation factor

I see from the visble and water vapor stellite loop that Wilma looks good but she does look squezzed off. this is because as metioned in the 5am discussion and as you can see on the visible satellite there is some very dry air to the NW of Wilma. the good news for wilma is the upperlevel winds and warm SST's will encourage steady growth and development! My intestity forecast is this.

intial 40mph

12 hr 50 mph

24 hr 70 mph


36 hr 80mph

48hr 90 mph hitting the yuctan


56hr 110mph


72hr 120mph

96hr 125mph


Track guiadance

The big player in wilma's track is the large subtropical high over florida. All the model concensus besides a few Canadian models agree with the NWS with a much farther west track than was forecasted yesterday. the NWS forecast a shortwave coming in 2-3 days to SLOWLY erode the high but I think it may be to late by that time. she would have to make a very fast turn to do that. So my track forecast is for him to hit the Yuactan's northern coast and move across the yucatan into the gulf of Mexico. after that is a little hard to say but my new forecast will be out Wednesday.
Conclusion

My conclusion is I don't think wilma will be a major player because of the Subtropical high and midlevel dry air. It is possible but not that likely that she will hit the Gulf Coast. She will be a strong storm though so mud slides and bad weather in the Yucatan will prevail.

Always listen to offical sources.