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Dean Main thread
08-21-2007, 06:22 PM
Post: #1471
Dean Main thread
This thing is definitely moving nw now, the eye was at 18 n, and now it is at 20 N

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08-21-2007, 06:31 PM
Post: #1472
Dean Main thread
Already reforming an eye, or so it appears.
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08-21-2007, 06:35 PM (This post was last modified: 08-21-2007 07:09 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #1473
Dean Main thread
srainhoutx Wrote:Yep. Noticing that NW motion myself. Let the wobble watch begin again. With that said, still want to see the next few hours of SAT presentaion and RECON Data @ 00z.

Way to soon to tell as the eye is identifying itself again with pockets of air being mixed in. Give it 2 - 3 more hours if the motion continues then yes, I would say it is moving NW.


Too early to call.

Quote:
Originally Posted by srainhoutx
I'll give NHC/TPC credit. They have done a great job forecasting Dean. One of the best I have ever seen. Technology has sure has come a long way in my lifetime.


Even a squirel can get a nut sometimes


They did do a good job, the models did a good job as well with the except of the few persistant ones that wanted to curve it north.
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08-21-2007, 06:39 PM
Post: #1474
Dean Main thread
mom2grls72 Wrote:I agree..all of us got really lucky with this one. My husband and I were just talking this morning about how bad it would have been if it would have hit Galveston or south..Houston would have gotten the dirty side and at a Cat 5, I have no idea the amount of damage.

I would say, "Bye Bye Galveston . . ."


[Image: 300px-Galveston_-_1900_wreckage.jpg]
The Galveston Hurricane of 1900 made landfall
on the city of Galveston, Texas, - a low, flat
island, little more than a giant sandbar along
the Gulf Coast - on September 8, 1900. It had
estimated winds of 135 miles per hour at landfall.

http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/events/1900hurr.htm
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08-21-2007, 06:45 PM
Post: #1475
Dean Main thread
Thats not very funny Chesire, By the way I don't see it A) going that far north, B)moving way to fast to ramp up

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08-21-2007, 06:48 PM
Post: #1476
Dean Main thread
Wtnt34 Knhc 212339
Tcpat4
Bulletin
Hurricane Dean Intermediate Advisory Number 35a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042007
700 Pm Cdt Tue Aug 21 2007

...dean Over The Bay Of Campeche...air Force Plane Approaching...

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect Along The Gulf Coast Of Mexico
From South Of Progreso Westward To Tampico. The Hurricane Warning
For Portions Of Northern Yucatan Will Be Gradually Discontinued
Later Tonight. Preparations In The Western Portion Of The Hurricane
Warning Area Should Be Rushed To Completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect From North Of Tampico To
La Pesca.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

at 700 Pm Cdt...0000z...the Center Of Hurricane Dean Was Located
Near Latitude 19.7 North...longitude 92.2 West Or About 110 Miles...
175 Km...west Of Campeche Mexico And About 345 Miles...555
Km...east Of Tuxpan Mexico
.

Dean Is Moving Between The West And West-northwest Near 20 Mph...32
Km/hr...and This General Motion Is Expected During The Next 24
Hours. On The Forecast Track...dean Is Expected To Be Very Near
The Coast Of Central Mexico During The Day Wednesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Remain Near 80 Mph...130 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Dean Is A Category One Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson
Scale. An Air Force Plane Is Currently Approaching Dean. Some
Re-strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 35 Miles...55 Km...from
The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140
Miles...220 Km.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 970 Mb...28.64 Inches.

Storm Surge Flooding Of 6 To 8 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels Is
Possible...along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...along
The Coast Of Mexico Within The Hurricane Warning Area.

Dean Is Expected To Produce Storm Total Rainfall Of 5 To 10 Inches
Over Parts Of Southern And Central Mexico...and Guatemala...with
Maximum Amounts Of Up To 20 Inches. These Rains Could Cause
Life-threatening Flash Floods And Mudslides. Storm Total Rainfall
Of 1 To 2 Inches Is Possible Over Portions Of South Texas.

Repeating The 700 Pm Cdt Position...19.7 N...92.2 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 20 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...80
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...970 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
1000 Pm Cdt.

$$
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08-21-2007, 06:55 PM
Post: #1477
Dean Main thread
so far the UK met was the only model forecasting a slight nw turn

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08-21-2007, 07:05 PM
Post: #1478
Dean Main thread
mmru4real Wrote:so far the UK met was the only model forecasting a slight nw turn

you cant call that a turn yet.



That eye looks like it is the size of rhode island.
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08-21-2007, 07:12 PM
Post: #1479
Dean Main thread
They've underestimated a lot of hurricanes lately, when a few years ago, they always overestimated them.

Katrina became a 4 when they were still saying it would stay a 3, same with 5.

Considering the responsible thing is to overestimate them, and they are responsible people, it's a real misjudgement. There's something new in the models, that isn't modeled right that tends to make the hurricanes stronger than expected. My guess is the water warmer than ever before.
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08-21-2007, 07:17 PM
Post: #1480
Dean Main thread
Cat5x I SAID SLIGHT NW turn, not gigantic or medium but Slight

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