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Dean Main thread
08-21-2007, 07:24 PM
Post: #1481
Dean Main thread
It's probably just from the north side not being fed by the water. It ain't the eye, it's just a shortage of water vapor. The eye is probably that unclear part below it.
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08-21-2007, 07:31 PM
Post: #1482
Dean Main thread
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html
from this water vapor loop you can clearly see this is the eye that si moving slightly nw

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08-21-2007, 08:15 PM
Post: #1483
Dean Main thread
mmru4real Wrote:http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html
from this water vapor loop you can clearly see this is the eye that si moving slightly nw

how do you move slightly NW ? so basically you are moing wnw then ?


I don't even see that yet, the eye is so out of whack hard to tell exactly what it is doing.
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08-21-2007, 09:06 PM
Post: #1484
Dean Main thread
000
Urnt15 Knhc 220200
Af306 1604a Dean Hdob 22 20070822
015030 1822n 09337w 6966 03110 0016 +079 +079 278043 043 100 016 03
015100 1822n 09335w 6966 03109 0008 +084 +084 279041 042 041 007 03
015130 1823n 09333w 6966 03108 0003 +086 +086 277041 041 999 999 03
015200 1823n 09330w 6963 03110 0004 +084 +084 275042 042 999 999 03
015230 1823n 09328w 6964 03106 9994 +092 +092 270039 040 999 999 03
015300 1823n 09326w 6966 03105 9986 +096 +096 271038 039 999 999 03
015330 1823n 09324w 6962 03109 9985 +097 +097 271040 041 999 999 03
015400 1823n 09321w 6966 03104 9993 +092 +092 270043 044 999 999 03
015430 1823n 09319w 6965 03105 9983 +099 +099 270044 045 999 999 03
015500 1823n 09317w 6964 03105 9994 +090 +090 266048 050 999 999 03
015530 1823n 09315w 6969 03098 9997 +088 +088 262049 051 999 999 03
015600 1823n 09312w 6967 03100 0002 +083 +083 260051 051 999 999 03
015630 1823n 09310w 6966 03102 9998 +085 +085 259051 052 071 000 03
015700 1823n 09308w 6963 03106 0005 +080 +080 258053 054 073 002 03
015730 1823n 09305w 6967 03100 0007 +078 +078 256054 054 085 002 03
015800 1823n 09303w 6964 03102 0001 +083 +083 253052 053 999 999 03
015830 1823n 09301w 6963 03102 9994 +085 +085 252049 050 999 999 03
015900 1823n 09258w 6966 03098 9991 +087 +087 253048 049 999 999 03
015930 1823n 09256w 6963 03100 0002 +079 +079 249048 048 999 999 03
020000 1823n 09254w 6966 03098 9995 +085 +085 247047 047 999 999 03
$$

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08-21-2007, 09:37 PM
Post: #1485
Dean Main thread
Hello. I was looking at a model from Weather Underground and it shows Dean moving across Mexico and into the Pacific. Possibly gaining strength as a Cat. 2 again. I was wondering what are the chances the southwest, more California than anything, but what are the chances of this area getting a tropical depression or possibly even a tropical storm? If this is premature, than sorry.
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08-21-2007, 09:43 PM
Post: #1486
Dean Main thread
Air Force reconnaissance plane finds Dean with 80 mph winds...


at 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...the government of Mexico has discontinuedthe Hurricane Warning from Progreso southward to Campeche. AHurricane Warning remains in effect along the Gulf Coast of Mexicofrom south of Campeche westward to Tampico. Preparations in thewestern portion of the Hurricane Warning area should be rushed tocompletion.
At 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...the government of Mexico has extended theTropical Storm Warning northward to Bahia Algodones. A TropicalStorm Warning is now in effect from north of Tampico to BahiaAlgodones.
For storm information specific to your area...including possibleinland watches and warnings...please monitor products issuedby your local weather office.
At 1000 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Dean was locatednear latitude 19.9 north...longitude 93.0 west or about 215 miles...345 km...east-northeast of Veracruz Mexico and about 295 miles...475km...east-southeast of Tuxpan Mexico.
Dean is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue until landfall alongthe coast of central coast on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with highergusts. Dean is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpsonscale. Some intensification is possible before landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km...fromthe center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140miles...220 km. A Mexican Navy automatic station located at cayoarcas recently reported winds gusts to 72 mph...116 km/hr.
Minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force hurricane hunterplane was 979 mb...28.91 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels ispossible...along with large and dangerous battering waves...alongthe coast of Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area.
Dean is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inchesover parts of southern and central Mexico...with maximum amounts ofup to 20 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flashfloods and mudslides. Storm total rainfall of 1 to 2 inches ispossible over portions of south Texas.
Repeating the 1000 PM CDT position...19.9 N...93.0 W. Movementtoward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...80mph. Minimum central pressure...979 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National HurricaneCenter at 100 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 400am CDT.
$$Forecaster Avila

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08-21-2007, 10:27 PM
Post: #1487
Dean Main thread
Vortex Message...

VDM...

000
URNT12 KNHC 220310
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 22/02:50:10Z
B. 19 deg 49 min N
092 deg 57 min W
C. 700 mb 2906 m
D. 57 kt
E. 139 deg 52 nm
F. 237 deg 067 kt
G. 139 deg 055 nm
H. 979 mb
I. 10 C/ 3043 m
J. 13 C/ 3055 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF306 1604A DEAN OB 12
MAX FL WIND 84 KT NE QUAD 00:57:30 Z
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08-21-2007, 11:07 PM
Post: #1488
Dean Main thread
Dean is now one of the most intense Atlantic hurricanes on record and is third most intense in terms of landfall, only 1935 Labor Day Hurricane and Gilbert in 1988.
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08-22-2007, 12:57 AM
Post: #1489
Dean Main thread
000
Wtnt34 Knhc 220545
Tcpat4
Bulletin
Hurricane Dean Intermediate Advisory Number 36a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042007
100 Am Cdt Wed Aug 22 2007

...broad Center Of Dean Moving Through The Bay Of Campeche...

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect Along The Gulf Coast Of Mexico
From South Of Campeche Westward To Tampico. Preparations In The
Western Portion Of The Hurricane Warning Area Should Be Rushed To
Completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning Is Now In Effect From North Of Tampico To
Bahia Algodones.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 100 Am Cdt...0600z...the Center Of Hurricane Dean Was Located
Near Latitude 20.1 North...longitude 94.0 West Or About 155 Miles...
250 Km...east-northeast Of Veracruz Mexico And About 230 Miles...370
Km...east-southeast Of Tuxpan Mexico.

Dean Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 19 Mph...31 Km/hr...
And This General Motion Is Expected To Continue Until Landfall Along
The Coast Of Eastern Mexico Later Today.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 80 Mph...130 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Dean Is A Category One Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson
Scale. Some Intensification Is Possible Before Landfall.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 35 Miles...55 Km...from
The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140
Miles...220 Km. Noaa Buoy 42055 Recently Reported 1-minute Average
Winds Of 50 Mph...81 Km/hr...with A Gust To 60 Mph...97 Km/hr.

The Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter Plane Was 980 Mb...28.94 Inches.

Storm Surge Flooding Of 6 To 8 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels Is
Possible...along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...along
The Coast Of Mexico Within The Hurricane Warning Area.

Dean Is Expected To Produce Storm Total Rainfall Of 5 To 10 Inches
Over Parts Of Southern And Central Mexico...with Maximum Amounts Of
Up To 20 Inches. These Rains Could Cause Life-threatening Flash
Floods And Mudslides. Storm Total Rainfall Of 1 To 2 Inches Is
Possible Over Portions Of South Texas.

Repeating The 100 Am Cdt Position...20.1 N...94.0 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 19 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...80
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...980 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National
Hurricane Center At 400 Am Cdt.

$$
Forecaster Beven/brown
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08-22-2007, 04:03 AM
Post: #1490
Dean Main thread
Dean slowly re-organizing over the Bay of Campeche...expected to
make landfall later today...


At 4 am CDT...0900 UTC...the government of Mexico has extended theHurricane Warning northward along the Gulf Coast of Mexico to LaCruz. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect along the Gulf Coast ofMexico from south of Campeche westward to La Cruz. Preparations inthe western portion of the Hurricane Warning area should be rushedto completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Gulf Coast ofMexico from north of La Cruz to Bahia Algodones.
For storm information specific to your area...including possibleinland watches and warnings...please monitor products issuedby your local weather office.
At 400 am CDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Dean was locatednear latitude 20.3 north...longitude 94.8 west or about 120 miles...190 km...northeast of Veracruz Mexico and about 175 miles...280 km...East-southeast of Tuxpan Mexico.
Dean is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph...32 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24hours. This motion should bring the center of Dean across the GulfCoast of Mexico later today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with highergusts. Dean is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpsonscale. Some strengthening is possible before landfall...followed byweakening after landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...fromthe center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200miles...325 km. NOAA buoy 42055 recently reported a 1-minuteaverage wind of 57 mph...91 km/hr...and a gust of 65 mph...104km/hr.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb...28.91 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels ispossible...along with large and dangerous battering waves...alongthe coast of Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area.
Dean is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inchesover parts of southern and central Mexico...with maximum amounts ofup to 20 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flashfloods and mudslides.
Repeating the 400 am CDT position...20.3 N...94.8 W. Movementtoward...west-northwest near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...80mph. Minimum central pressure...979 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National HurricaneCenter at 700 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1000am CDT.
$$

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