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Dean Main thread
08-22-2007, 06:39 AM
Post: #1491
Dean Main thread
Now that it is all said and done. TWC finally comes out and states that this high pressure ridge hanging over the Eastern U.S. served as a protector keeping hurricane dean from our coast lines.

All of this UUL was nothing more than false information given to television viewers via TWC to boost ratings. They used the gimmick of "you really don't know where it's going to go" when the Big 4 Supermodels pretty much hit the track dead on. What really upsets me about this is all of the preparations of transporting all of this necessary material to Texas. To everyone else, it was a waste of time and money because the weather channel wants to use scare tactics to boost their ratings. Believe me, they knew this the whole time!!

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08-22-2007, 08:20 AM
Post: #1492
Dean Main thread
Budster Wrote:Now that it is all said and done. TWC finally comes out and states that this high pressure ridge hanging over the Eastern U.S. served as a protector keeping hurricane dean from our coast lines.

All of this UUL was nothing more than false information given to television viewers via TWC to boost ratings. They used the gimmick of "you really don't know where it's going to go" when the Big 4 Supermodels pretty much hit the track dead on. What really upsets me about this is all of the preparations of transporting all of this necessary material to Texas. To everyone else, it was a waste of time and money because the weather channel wants to use scare tactics to boost their ratings. Believe me, they knew this the whole time!!

Hence TWC being my LAST source of weather data. I never turn it on...

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08-22-2007, 09:08 AM
Post: #1493
Dean Main thread
Budster Wrote:Now that it is all said and done. TWC finally comes out and states that this high pressure ridge hanging over the Eastern U.S. served as a protector keeping hurricane dean from our coast lines.

All of this UUL was nothing more than false information given to television viewers via TWC to boost ratings. They used the gimmick of "you really don't know where it's going to go" when the Big 4 Supermodels pretty much hit the track dead on. What really upsets me about this is all of the preparations of transporting all of this necessary material to Texas. To everyone else, it was a waste of time and money because the weather channel wants to use scare tactics to boost their ratings. Believe me, they knew this the whole time!!
Uh, wrong. The ULL definitely COULD have had an influence. You can't pinpoint landfall in one place just because all of the tracks agree, just look at Katrina and New Orleans. And you may want to tell the people here that the ULL was false, given that a lot of people (including myself) thought it could have had more influence than the models initializing a catagery 4 hurricane at 1004mb thought that it would. Hell, even the GFDL took it into Louisiana for awhile and it's a damned good model, and it doesn't have ratings to consider.
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08-22-2007, 09:49 AM (This post was last modified: 08-22-2007 10:08 AM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #1494
Dean Main thread
Dean reaches category two strength...landfall expected within a
few hours...


At 10 am CDT...1500 UTC...the government of Mexico has discontinuedthe Hurricane Warning east of Coatzacoalcos. A Hurricane Warning isnow in effect along the Gulf Coast of Mexico from Coatzacoalcosnorthward to La Cruz. Preparations in the Hurricane Warning areashould have already been completed.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Gulf Coast ofMexico from north of La Cruz to Bahia Algodones.
For storm information specific to your area...including possibleinland watches and warnings...please monitor products issuedby your local weather office.
At 1000 am CDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Dean was locatednear latitude 20.6 north...longitude 96.3 west or about 95 miles...155 km...north of Veracruz Mexico and about 75 miles...125 km...east-southeast of Tuxpan Mexico.
Dean is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue until landfall. On thistrack...Dean is expected to reach the coast of Mexico near Tuxpanearly this afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds have increased and are now near 100mph...160 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is a category twohurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Only a small amount ofadditional strengthening is likely prior to landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...fromthe center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200miles...325 km.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserveunit reconnaissance aircraft was 979 mb...28.91 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels ispossible...along with large and dangerous battering waves...near andto the north of where the center makes landfall.
Dean is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inchesover parts of southern and central Mexico...with maximum amounts ofup to 20 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flashfloods and mudslides. About four inches of rain has fallen inVeracruz during the last six hours.
Repeating the 1000 am CDT position...20.6 N...96.3 W. Movementtoward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100mph. Minimum central pressure...979 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National HurricaneCenter at 100 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 400PM CDT.
$$Forecaster Franklin/Mainellian Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft investigating Deanis finding flight level winds of close to 100 kt...and recentobservations are showing a contraction of the inner core windfield. A dropsonde about 20 nmi north of the center recentlyreported a wl150...I.E. Low-level...mean wind of 100 kt...corresponding to 85 kt at the surface. On this basis...theadvisory intensity is increased to 85 kt...making Dean a categorytwo hurricane. Fortunately...these changes in the core structureare occurring too close to landfall to allow for much furtherintensification.
The initial motion is about the same...285/16. There has been nochange in the track forecast thinking...and Dean is expected tomake landfall within the next few hours near Tuxpan.

Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 22/1500z 20.6n 96.3w 85 kt 12hr VT 23/0000z 21.2n 98.6w 65 kt...inland 24hr VT 23/1200z 21.3n 101.6w 25 kt...inland 36hr VT 24/0000z...dissipated

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08-22-2007, 10:16 AM
Post: #1495
Dean Main thread
That's why once John Hope passed away (I cried for DAYS!!) I quit watching TWC. Nash Roberts was my other hero and now that he's gone too, I rely on my own senses and the guidance received from this fantastic website!! GO HARDCORE WEATHER!

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08-22-2007, 11:46 AM
Post: #1496
Dean Main thread
SiStAtWiStA Wrote:That's why once John Hope passed away (I cried for DAYS!!) I quit watching TWC. Nash Roberts was my other hero and now that he's gone too, I rely on my own senses and the guidance received from this fantastic website!! GO HARDCORE WEATHER!

I also was very saddened and almost literally cried when I tuned in the morning they announced his passing. With that stated, my interest in TWC decreased dramatically at that point, and their Tropical Weather coverage, along with everything else, continued to skew...

I'd have to say that Jeff Masters, who I saw in person back in April, gets a lot of credit from me for being pretty much dead on with Dean. I go to his blog and here for my weather prediction thirsts.

He stated last week that it that most of the models (and eventually reposted to say that all of the models) forecasted Dean to go west into the Yucatan and no further northern than say Brownsville or Body of Christ (Corpus Christi), TX.

I deemed Dean a Mexican Hurricane at that point based upon what I read, and that's exactly what it became...

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08-22-2007, 11:55 AM
Post: #1497
Dean Main thread
Daniel294 Wrote:Uh, wrong. The ULL definitely COULD have had an influence. You can't pinpoint landfall in one place just because all of the tracks agree, just look at Katrina and New Orleans. And you may want to tell the people here that the ULL was false, given that a lot of people (including myself) thought it could have had more influence than the models initializing a catagery 4 hurricane at 1004mb thought that it would. Hell, even the GFDL took it into Louisiana for awhile and it's a damned good model, and it doesn't have ratings to consider.

The ULL for Katrina was much more influential for a number of reasons. The ULL was sitting there adjacent to Katrina like holding a piece of candy away from it. I had the system projected to hit Louisiana at least 24 hours before NOAA projected its models from Pensacola to LA/MS Border because of the influence. The ULL actually pushed it further from NW Florida which is why we did see the WSW movement momentarily.

This was much different because it was much further away from it, not a very strong one and the high ridges were too overwhelming.

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08-22-2007, 01:55 PM
Post: #1498
Dean Main thread
Wow, I'm looking at some archived models I grabbed, and the Navy NOGAPS had Dean pretty well right on the money on the 8/17 8:00AM advisory!

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08-22-2007, 04:19 PM
Post: #1499
Dean Main thread
Dean now a tropical storm inland over Mexico...


at 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...the government of Mexico has discontinuedthe Hurricane Warning and adjusted the Tropical Storm Warning alongthe Gulf Coast of Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effectfrom Palma Sola northward to La Cruz.
For storm information specific to your area...including possibleinland watches and warnings...please monitor products issuedby your local weather office.
At 400 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Dean waslocated inland near latitude 20.5 north...longitude 98.1 west or 40miles...65 km...west of poza rica Mexico.
Dean is moving toward the west near 17 mph...28 km/hr...and thismotion is expected to continue tonight.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher gusts. However...stronger winds...especially ingusts... are likely over elevated terrain. Continued weakening isexpected until Dean dissipates over the mountains of central Mexicotonight or early Thursday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles...445km...mainly to the northeast of the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb...28.79 inches.
Storm surge flooding along the Gulf Coast of Mexico will graduallysubside this evening.
Dean is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inchesover parts of southern and central Mexico...with maximum amounts ofup to 20 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flashfloods and mudslides.
Repeating the 400 PM CDT position...20.5 N...98.1 W. Movementtoward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...70 mph.Minimum central pressure...975 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National HurricaneCenter at 700 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1000PM CDT.
$$Forecaster Franklin/Mainelliaround 1630 UTC...the center of Dean made landfall in Mexico as acategory two hurricane near the town of tecolutla...about 40 milessouth-southeast of Tuxpan Mexico.
Although Dean continues to generate deep convection...the overallcloud pattern has deteriorated. The initial advisory intensity isset at 60 kt. However...stronger winds...especially in gusts...arelikely over elevated terrain. The initial motion is 270/15. Deanis expected to continue to move westward and the surfacecirculation should dissipate late tonight or early Thursday.
The primary threat is rainfall and the possibility of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across portions of southernand central Mexico.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 22/2100z 20.5n 98.1w 60 kt...inland 12hr VT 23/0600z 20.5n 100.5w 30 kt...inland 24hr VT 23/1800z...dissipated
$$forecaster Mainelli/Franklin

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08-22-2007, 04:35 PM
Post: #1500
Dean Main thread
Looks like I may get some rain out of this in a few days...

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