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Dean Main thread
08-11-2007, 05:44 PM
Post: #21
Dean Main thread
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...112!!step/ Theres another model

[FONT="Arial Black"][COLOR="Black"]Bob

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08-11-2007, 05:46 PM
Post: #22
Dean Main thread
model runs from Mr Grant
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com

[Image: AL902007mlts.gif?807002401]

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08-11-2007, 05:54 PM
Post: #23
Dean Main thread
bobbo4554 Wrote:too early to flip out! Way to early

Never too early to start to think about what you would do. Believe me, I have lived it. What scares me is these models are all showing something forming. How true it is, if the models way out show it moving one way, it usually goes somewhere else. We don't need another Gulf superstorm!
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08-11-2007, 05:59 PM
Post: #24
Dean Main thread
i live in Florida ive lived it as well. No its not too early to prepare but it is too early to start to worry. I live in Tampa trust me if we get smaked it will be bad but just take it one day at a time

[FONT="Arial Black"][COLOR="Black"]Bob

Say it now, there will never be a better time to let somebody know whats in your heart and on your mind. If you love someone dont let the sun go down, Say it now.

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08-11-2007, 07:26 PM
Post: #25
Dean Main thread
Love the models with this post. Keep them coming. /thumbup
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08-11-2007, 08:14 PM
Post: #26
Dean Main thread
tic Objective Aids For

Disturbance Invest (al902007) 20070812 0000 Utc

...00 Hrs... ...12 Hrs... ...24 Hrs. .. ...36 Hrs...
070812 0000 070812 1200 070813 0000 070813 1200

Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon
Bams 11.8n 20.8w 13.0n 23.8w 14.1n 27.6w 15.2n 32.3w
Bamd 11.8n 20.8w 12.2n 25.0w 12.5n 29.2w 12.8n 33.2w
Bamm 11.8n 20.8w 12.6n 24.5w 13.3n 28.5w 13.9n 32.8w
Lbar 11.8n 20.8w 12.1n 24.2w 12.7n 28.0w 13.1n 32.1w
Ship 25kts 25kts 28kts 32kts
Dshp 25kts 25kts 28kts 32kts

...48 Hrs... ...72 Hrs... ...96 Hrs. .. ..120 Hrs...
070814 0000 070815 0000 070816 0000 070817 0000

Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon
Bams 16.0n 37.2w 17.5n 46.9w 17.6n 56.2w 16.3n 64.6w
Bamd 13.0n 37.2w 13.3n 44.9w 13.6n 52.3w 13.9n 58.3w
Bamm 14.3n 37.2w 14.5n 46.0w 13.9n 54.2w 13.1n 60.0w
Lbar 13.7n 36.5w 13.8n 44.5w .0n .0w .0n .0w
Ship 37kts 45kts 51kts 54kts
Dshp 37kts 45kts 51kts 54kts




[Image: 20.jpg]


HWRF model shows a major cane

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.c...=Animation
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08-11-2007, 08:29 PM
Post: #27
Dean Main thread
Here are the latest OFFICIAL model runs as of 12/00Z by the NHC
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08-11-2007, 08:43 PM
Post: #28
Dean Main thread
A nice long tracker is what I think we are in store for. I am concerned that it might ride wnw all the way to the GOM. I hope it recurves...
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08-11-2007, 09:02 PM
Post: #29
Dean Main thread
Note that ALL the 18Z and 00Z models shifted toward a Caribbean track. The only one that didn't was the CLP5 (the climo model). I'm thinking there's actually some merit to this........ This disturbance will develop and soon....but not rapidly for a while. There is some marginally dry air ahead of it....and some weak shear...... the system is organized enough to fight it with no problems...but it will keep a cap on rapid intensification until around 55-60 deg W, I think. Weaker systems tend to travel more westward, as they are steered more by the lower-level easterly trade winds. Add to this that at around the time this system is approaching 50-60 deg W....the Central Atlantic High will be flexing its muscle.....and this will help with westward movement as well.
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08-11-2007, 09:22 PM
Post: #30
Dean Main thread
Abnt20 Knhc 120209
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1030 Pm Edt Sat Aug 11 2007

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

A Broad Area Of Low Pressure Over The Western Caribbean Sea Is
Producing Disorganized Showers And Thunderstorms Near Jamaica...the
Cayman Islands...and Cuba. Development Of This System...if
Any...is Expected To Be Slow To Occur At It Moves Westward Into The
Yucatan Peninsula At About 10 Mph.

A Vigorous Tropical Wave Is Located Over The Far Eastern Atlantic
Ocean About 300 Miles Southeast Of The Southernmost Cape Verde
Islands. Showers And Thunderstorms Have Changed Little In
Organization This Evening. However...conditions Appear Favorable
For Gradual Development Of This System...and A Tropical Depression
Could Form During The Next Day Or Two As It Moves Westward At 15 To
20 Mph.

Elsewhere...tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.

$$
Forecaster Rhome

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