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Dean Main thread
08-12-2007, 03:38 PM
Post: #51
Dean Main thread
Here are the latest OFFICIAL model runs as of 12/18Z by the NHC
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08-12-2007, 04:24 PM
Post: #52
Dean Main thread
000
Abnt20 Knhc 122121
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
530 Pm Edt Sun Aug 12 2007

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

A Large Area Of Disorganized Shower And Thunderstorm Activity
Extends From The Northwestern Caribbean Sea Into The Southwestern
Atlantic Near The Northern Bahamas. This Activity Is Associated
With A Tropical Wave Interacting With An Upper-level Low.
Development Of This System...if Any...is Expected To Be Slow To
Occur At It Moves West-northwestward Into The Gulf Of Mexico At
About 10 Mph.

A Low Pressure Area...associated With A Tropical Wave...is Located
Over The Far Eastern Atlantic Ocean About 175 Miles Southwest Of
The Southernmost Cape Verde Islands. Strong Upper-level Easterly
Winds Have Kept The System From Becoming Better Organized This
Afternoon. However...only A Small Increase In Organization Would
Result In The Formation Of A Tropical Depression As The Low Moves
Westward At About 20 Mph.

Elsewhere...tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.

$$
Forecaster Brown/franklin

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08-12-2007, 04:35 PM
Post: #53
Dean Main thread
From Jeff Masters

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/J...amp=200708


What the computer models say
Watching the computer model runs for 90L is not for the faint of heart. All the major models except the NOGAPS develop the system into a tropical storm or hurricane that tracks westward over the Atlantic, reaching the lesser Antilles Islands as early as Thursday night, August 16. There are four possible scenarios to consider:

1) A strong trough of low pressure is forecast to move off the East Coast of the U.S. at that time, and this trough may deflect 90L northwards so that it misses the Lesser Antilles Islands, and then recurves harmlessly out to sea.

2) In keeping with the steering pattern we've observed since late July, the trough is expected to rapidly move onward, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in. If the trough is not strong enough to recurve 90L out to sea, the storm will be forced to the west once more and eventually hit the East Coast of the U.S. This is the solution of last night's ECMWF model.

3) 90L will be far enough south and next weekend's trough will be weak enough that 90L will plow through the Caribbean, and not be deflected north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The storm would eventually track into the Gulf of Mexico. This is the solution preferred by this morning's GFS model.

4) 90L will never develop, or will never become more than a weak tropical storm, due to unfavorable wind shear, dry air, or other factors. This is the solution of the NOGAPS model.

Of the four scenarios, I believe #2 or #3 are most likely to occur--90L will develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that will affect the Caribbean and/or U.S. East Coast. Residents throughout the Caribbean and U.S. should anticipate the possibility that 90L may become a hurricane--and possibly a major hurricane--that will not recurve. If you plan on being in the Lesser Antilles Islands Thursday August 16 - Sunday August 19, keep in mind there is a heightened risk of a tropical storm or hurricane during that period. Be prepared to adjust your travel plans.

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08-12-2007, 05:28 PM
Post: #54
Dean Main thread
[Image: gfs_ten_144l.gif]

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08-12-2007, 06:04 PM
Post: #55
Dean Main thread
new quickscat out

[Image: qscat_barbs_atl_22.png]

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08-12-2007, 07:11 PM
Post: #56
Dean Main thread
The quicksat looks good and the storm is really firing does anybody expect an upgrade at 11pm or do u think the NHC will wait it out for a while?
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08-12-2007, 07:19 PM
Post: #57
Dean Main thread
Tropical Weather Discussion
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
805 Pm Edt Sun Aug 12 2007

...special Feature...

A 1008 Mb Low...associated With A Vigorous Tropical Wave Along
25w S Of 18n...is Located Over The Cape Verde Islands Near
12.5n25w. Satellite Imagery Shows The Low-level Circulation
Partially Exposed To The Ne Of A Convective Mass. This System
Has Improved In Organization Over The Past 24 Hours And A
Tropical Depression Could Form Later Tonight Or Tomorrow As The
Low Moves Westward At 15-20 Kt. Presently...scattered Moderate
To Isolated Strong Convection Is From 6n-14n Between 27w-30w.

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08-12-2007, 07:50 PM
Post: #58
Dean Main thread
the first T numbers are out!

12/2345 UTC 12.6N 26.6W T1.0/1.5 90L

James E. Proctor
www.theweatherwatch.x10hosting.com
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08-12-2007, 08:23 PM
Post: #59
Dean Main thread
It is amazing that these computer models have formed a system that far out. I wonder what will happen of it all. Not only that, in the last three days, it had a system forming and hitting everywhere from the upper east coast of the US to Mexico. Now, if that ain't unpredictable, I don't know what is. So, I guess the moral of the story is, if this thing does form, we need to all watch and pay attention to this ones path.
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08-12-2007, 08:29 PM
Post: #60
Dean Main thread
Whxx01 Kwbc 130048
Chghur
Tropical Cyclone Guidance Message
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
0048 Utc Mon Aug 13 2007

Disclaimer...numerical Models Are Subject To Large Errors.
Please Refer To Nhc Official Forecasts For Tropical Cyclone
And Subtropical Cyclone Information.

Atlantic Objective Aids For

Disturbance Invest (al902007) 20070813 0000 Utc

...00 Hrs... ...12 Hrs... ...24 Hrs. .. ...36 Hrs...
070813 0000 070813 1200 070814 0000 070814 1200

Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon
Bams 12.7n 27.1w 13.7n 30.5w 14.8n 34.6w 15.8n 39.2w
Bamd 12.7n 27.1w 13.1n 31.0w 13.6n 35.0w 14.1n 39.1w
Bamm 12.7n 27.1w 13.4n 31.2w 14.1n 35.6w 14.6n 40.2w
Lbar 12.7n 27.1w 12.9n 30.8w 13.3n 35.0w 13.7n 39.5w
Ship 25kts 27kts 32kts 37kts
Dshp 25kts 27kts 32kts 37kts

...48 Hrs... ...72 Hrs... ...96 Hrs. .. ..120 Hrs...
070815 0000 070816 0000 070817 0000 070818 0000

Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon
Bams 16.9n 44.1w 18.6n 54.6w 19.2n 64.7w 18.2n 73.6w
Bamd 14.6n 43.2w 15.8n 51.6w 16.9n 59.4w 17.7n 67.1w
Bamm 14.9n 45.1w 14.7n 55.1w 13.5n 63.6w 12.9n 68.8w
Lbar 14.0n 44.1w 13.5n 52.4w .0n .0w .0n .0w
Ship 43kts 56kts 69kts 71kts
Dshp 43kts 56kts 69kts 71kts

...initial Conditions...
Latcur = 12.7n Loncur = 27.1w Dircur = 275deg Spdcur = 16kt
Latm12 = 12.3n Lonm12 = 24.3w Dirm12 = 274deg Spdm12 = 16kt
Latm24 = 12.0n Lonm24 = 20.8w
Wndcur = 25kt Rmaxwd = 45nm Wndm12 = 25kt
Cenprs = 1006mb Outprs = 1010mb Outrad = 180nm Sdepth = M
Rd34ne = 0nm Rd34se = 0nm Rd34sw = 0nm Rd34nw = 0nm

$$

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