Dean Main thread

[Daniel294]

It may be going a bit fast to develop right now.

[Fred Gossage]

It has a completely closed circulation.... and with it just north of the ITCZ....the westerly winds in the ITCZ reinforce the southern side of the circulation....so even with it moving along....it won't open up into a wave...... it just won't develop rapidly....

[ROLLTIDE]

I am worried about this thing intensifying to a pretty strong cane down the road as it will have some 93 octane water feeding it

[Atlantafan]

Perhaps this is something to keep an eye on...

[ROLLTIDE]

Good looking quick scat





Animated loop. It will not be long before this one is upgraded to a TD



http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/list...v=400,pp=0

[Alabamaboy]

Is anyone having trouble connecting to the Navy site?

[RG57]

Alabamaboy Wrote:Is anyone having trouble connecting to the Navy site?

Yes.

[ROLLTIDE]

CMC has something in the GOM then here comes Dean


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...=Animation

[ROLLTIDE]

205 Am Twd

...special Feature...
A Vigorous Tropical Wave Is Located Over The Far Eastern Atlantic
Ocean Along 20w S Of 20n. A 1006 Mb Low Pres Is Near 12n20w Or
About 300 Miles Southeast Of The Southernmost Cape Verde
Islands. Showers And Thunderstorms Have Changed Little In
Organization Tonight. However...conditions Appear Favorable For
Gradual Development Of This System...and A Tropical Depression
Could Form During The Next Day Or Two As It Moves Westward At 15
To 20 Mph. Moderate To Isolated Strong Convection Is Within 50
Nm Of 12n23w.



816
WHXX01 KWBC 120033
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0033 UTC SUN AUG 12 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20070812 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070812 0000 070812 1200 070813 0000 070813 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 20.8W 13.0N 23.8W 14.1N 27.6W 15.2N 32.3W
BAMD 11.8N 20.8W 12.2N 25.0W 12.5N 29.2W 12.8N 33.2W
BAMM 11.8N 20.8W 12.6N 24.5W 13.3N 28.5W 13.9N 32.8W
LBAR 11.8N 20.8W 12.1N 24.2W 12.7N 28.0W 13.1N 32.1W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070814 0000 070815 0000 070816 0000 070817 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 37.2W 17.5N 46.9W 17.6N 56.2W 16.3N 64.6W
BAMD 13.0N 37.2W 13.3N 44.9W 13.6N 52.3W 13.9N 58.3W
BAMM 14.3N 37.2W 14.5N 46.0W 13.9N 54.2W 13.1N 60.0W
LBAR 13.7N 36.5W 13.8N 44.5W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 37KTS 45KTS 51KTS 54KTS
DSHP 37KTS 45KTS 51KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 20.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 18.1W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 15.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[ROLLTIDE]

000
Abnt20 Knhc 120912
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
530 Am Edt Sun Aug 12 2007

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

A Broad Area Of Low Pressure Over The Western Caribbean Sea Is
Producing Disorganized Showers And Thunderstorms Near Jamaica...the
Cayman Islands...and Cuba. Development Of This System...if
Any...is Expected To Be Slow To Occur At It Moves Westward Into The
Yucatan Peninsula At About 10 Mph.

A Vigorous Tropical Wave Is Located Over The Far Eastern Atlantic
Ocean About 300 Miles South-southeast Of The Southernmost Cape Verde
Islands. Conditions Appear Favorable For Gradual Development Of
This System...and A Tropical Depression Could Form During The Next
Day Or Two As It Moves Westward At 15 To 20 Mph.

Elsewhere...tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.

$$
Forecaster Rhome