Tropical Depression #10

[AaronB]

I think that's a fair assessment by Accuweather. Both areas are certainly ripe. Unfortunately, storms forming in either of those areas could spell big trouble for the GOM. I personally think the area east of FL has the most potential. To quote Fat Bastard, "It's like a fire down there!"

[srainhoutx]

Snipets From HOU/GAL, LCH and New Orleans AFD's this morning...



FXUS64 KHGX 150840
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL MODELS SHOW SOME FORM OF
TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE GULF LATE IN THE WEEK GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL THAT TIME OF YEAR... 47


FXUS64 KLCH 150856
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
356 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007

.DISCUSSION... MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE END AS ALL OF
THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING/MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS FOR
THE OUT PERIODS OF THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY
INVOLVED CHOSE TO NOT BE SO AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS/WX/WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ITS FEATURE

FXUS64 KLIX 150911
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
411 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007


.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LOW GETS CUT OFF FROM THE EAST COAST TROUGH AND MOVES
WEST THROUGH THE GULF NEXT WEEK. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A SFC
LOW WITH A HINT OF HAVING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WILL FORM
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. UPPER LOWS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DIRECTLY BENEATH THEM UNLESS THEY SIT OVER A
MARINE AREA LONG ENOUGH AND GREATLY MODIFY. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE AREA UPSTREAM FROM THE UPPER LOW...IN THIS CASE TO THE
EAST OF THE UPPER LOW...CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE HOSPITABLE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT.

[dhs62]

where did you go to get that info

[srainhoutx]

For Houston/Galveston

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/forecasts.htm

Lake Charles

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDLCH

New Orleans

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/cgi-bin/getp...n=0&max=11

and Corpus Christi as well(Read Long Term)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?...&version=0

Hope those links help

[dhs62]

thanks

[srainhoutx]

And just to add to the plot DFW chimes in (snipet Long Term)

FXUS64 KFWD 151121 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007/



A FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A TUTT LOW OVER FLORIDA ON TUESDAY THAT MOVES WEST THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO DURING THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THIS
SYSTEM GRADUALLY ACQUIRES TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS BY FRIDAY
AS THEY FORECAST AN ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND WARMING
UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES. MODELS FORECAST THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE
SYSTEM BECOMES A NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT APPEARS THAT THE CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TR.92

[AaronB]

What's that I see in the E. Caribbean along 23N 69W? There has been persistent activity there for about 24 hours now. Should we be concerned about that?

[hurricaneguy]

Hello!

[Alex]

From Jeff Masters Blog:

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models all suggest a tropical depression may form in the Western Caribbean on Wednesday and move northwards into the Gulf of Mexico or over Florida.

[pullenr]

Interesting Model Run.