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Tropical Depression #10
09-15-2007, 07:30 PM
Post: #21
Tropical Depression #10
Snippets from Florida forecast discussion.
000
FXUS62 KKEY 151950
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
350 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY -- THIS TIME FRAME WILL MOST LIKELY BE MORE
DISTURBED THAN AVERAGE. WE HAVE THEREFORE NUDGED UP CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FROM DEPICTIONS OF A
MID AND UPPER CYCLONE CUTTING OFF OVER THE EASTERN GULF BASIN TO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DRIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN.
OBVIOUSLY...UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS REMAINS HIGH...AND THE
ULTIMATE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEPEND ON THE NATURE AND EXTENT OF
MIDLATITUDE-TROPICAL INTERACTION AT THIS LONGITUDE.
&&
000
FXUS62 KMLB 151909
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
308 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007


ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...GFS AND OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP A SFC LOW MON-TUE AND LIFT IT NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO BY END OF THE WEEK. THE 12Z GFS CURLS THE LOW NE ACROSS N FL
PENINSULA DUE TO LOWERING HEIGHTS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. BUT
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FCST. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF BRING A DISCRETE CLOSED UPPER
LOW WEST ACROSS FL AND TAKES THE SFC LOW NW INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. REGARDLESS...APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK

000
FXUS62 KJAX 151849
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS/ECM APPEAR TO BE THE
MOST REASONABLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE EXTENDED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH COOL AND
STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING. BY WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL
ACT TO DEEPEN AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THIS
LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WARM
AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INFLUENCE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WILL ACT TO BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE
TO MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 151832
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
232 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007
BY MONDAY AND EXTENDING INTO AT LEAST MID WEEK IF NOT BEYOND...LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND DRIFTING
SOUTHWEST THEREAFTER WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EAST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. LATER NEXT WEEK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DEVELOPING
LOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND DRIFTING NORTH INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. STILL A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE MUCH CAN BE SAID ABOUT THIS
SCENARIO OR WHETHER THE LOW WILL EVEN FORM.


000
FXUS62 KTAE 151810
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
210 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007
.LONG TERM UPDATE...INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS IN THE 12Z GFS BY LATE
THIS COMING WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
HINTED...FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS NOW...A SYSTEM...PERHAPS
TROPICAL IN NATURE...MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WOULD MOVE
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY
PREDICTIONS ABOUT WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN AS THE SYSTEM HASN`T EVEN FORMED
YET. MOREOVER...WE ARE LOOKING AT A 7 TO 9 DAY MODEL
FORECAST...WHICH IS FULL OF UNCERTAINTY. NEVERTHELESS...IT BEARS
WATCHING AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.


000
FXUS62 KTBW 151750
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
150 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. IT BEGINS WITH A SURFACE HIGH RIDGING DOWN THE
EASTERN U.S. COAST AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH/REMNANT BOUNDARY ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST. ALOFT A RIDGE SITS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. FROM THERE IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY STARTS...WITH THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS BEING THAT THE UPPER HIGH STRETCHES
NORTHEAST AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTS OFF AND MOVES SOUTHWEST UNDER
THE HIGH WITH THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATES. WHAT VARIES GREATLY BETWEEN
THE MODELS AND FROM EACH MODEL RUN IS THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
LOW PRESSURE FEATURES. THE DGEX KEEPS EVERYTHING EAST OF THE STATE
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF
MOVES THE UPPER LOW SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA AND INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF BEFORE DEVELOPING THE SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WEST OF
THE STATE. FINALLY...THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER LOW A BIT MORE BROAD
OVER THE STATE WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH OVER/JUST WEST OF
THE STATE. SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD WINDS REMAINING
GENERALLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...HAVE GONE WITH A SOLUTION
THAT KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WHICH WOULD LIFT
THE MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE STATE. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS AND
CLOUD COVER BY 10 PERCENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT THIS STILL
KEEPS WORDING AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND PARTLY CLOUDY. HAVE
ALSO ADJUSTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO KEEPING
MOSTLY MID-UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS INSTEAD OF AROUND 90. THIS MAY ALL
NEED TO BE REVERSED HOWEVER IF MODELS START TO SHOW CONSISTENCY IN
KEEPING THE FEATURES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND START MAKING BIGGER CHANGES IF NECESSARY ONCE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

&&
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09-16-2007, 09:41 AM
Post: #22
Tropical Depression #10
Mobile NWS

WE BRING THE POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ON THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION. WE CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS...THE 12Z ECMWF HINTED AT A TROPICAL SYSTEM COMING UP OUT OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME...BUT THE LATEST RUN WAS
WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE LOW ORIGINATING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND KEEPS ANY LOW LEVEL FEATURES FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER THE
WESTERN GULFMEX THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE LATEST GFS IS ESSENTIALLY
THE SAME ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE PLAYERS (THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST)...EXCEPT WEAKER WITH ANY LOW LEVEL FEATURES FORMING UP
UNDER THE GULF UPPER LOW. SO...WE CAN TAKE SOME COMFORT IN THE FACT
THE CONSENSUS AMONGST THE VARIOUS EXTENDED RANGE MODELS IS TO BUILD
THE UPPER RIDGE BACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF NEXT WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER COLD CORE LOW OVER THE GULF SLIDES WESTWARD TOWARDS
TEXAS. STAY TUNED. /05

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09-16-2007, 12:32 PM
Post: #23
Tropical Depression #10
Is it Nov. 30th yet lol
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09-16-2007, 04:59 PM
Post: #24
Tropical Depression #10
Abnt20 Knhc 162118
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
530 Pm Edt Sun Sep 16 2007

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

The National Hurricane Center Is Issuing Advisories On Tropical
Depression Ingrid...centered About 210 Miles East Of The Leeward
Islands.

Disorganized Cloudiness And A Few Thunderstorms Over The Central
Caribbean Sea Are Associated With A Tropical Wave And An
Upper-level Trough. Upper-level Winds Are Currently Unfavorable
For Development Of This System...but They Could Become A Little
More Favorable For Slow Development In A Couple Of Days As The
System Moves Westward At 10 To 15 Mph.

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09-16-2007, 09:32 PM
Post: #25
Tropical Depression #10
I am thinking....regardless of whether it develops into something tropical...it will bring unwaned rians to texas!!
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09-16-2007, 09:44 PM
Post: #26
Tropical Depression #10
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1030 Pm Edt Sun Sep 16 2007

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

The National Hurricane Center Is Issuing Advisories On Tropical
Depression Ingrid...centered About 160 Miles East Of The Leeward
Islands.

Shower Activity Has Decreased This Evening Over The Central
Caribbean Sea In Association With A Tropical Wave And An Upper-level
Trough. Upper-level Winds Are Currently Unfavorable For
Development Of This System...but They Could Become A Little More
Favorable For Slow Development Over The Western Caribbean In A
Couple Of Days As The System Moves Westward At 10 To 15 Mph.

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09-16-2007, 11:27 PM
Post: #27
Tropical Depression #10
looks like this isn't going to happen as there is nothing there now.
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09-17-2007, 07:46 AM
Post: #28
Tropical Depression #10
is this a start?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atls...BW_sm3.gif


NHC showing a low moving toward texas coast

Big Grinj:

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09-17-2007, 09:11 AM
Post: #29
Tropical Depression #10
000
Abnt20 Knhc 170845
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
530 Am Edt Mon Sep 17 2007

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

The National Hurricane Center Has Issued Its Last Advisory On
Dissipating Tropical Depression Ingrid...centered About 120 Miles
East-northeast Of Antigua In The Lesser Antilles.

Cloudiness And A Few Showers Extend Across The Central Caribbean Sea
Northward To Hispaniola...in Association With A Weak Surface Trough
And An Upper-level Low. Upper-level Winds Are Currently Not
Favorable For Development...but Some Development Is Possible In A
Couple Of Days As The Surface Trough Moves Into The Northwestern
Caribbean Or Eastern Gulf Of Mexico.

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09-17-2007, 10:29 AM
Post: #30
Tropical Depression #10
Abnt20 Knhc 171505
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1130 Am Edt Mon Sep 17 2007

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

The Remnants Of Tropical Depression Ingrid Are Located Just East Of
The Northernmost Leeward Islands. Redevelopment Of This System Is
Not Expected During The Next Couple Of Days As It Moves Slowly
Westward To West-northwestward.

Cloudiness And Showers Over The Central Caribbean Sea Have
Diminished. Upper-level Winds Are Not Favorable For Development In
This Area Over The Next Couple Of Days.

A Tropical Wave Is Located About 950 Miles East Of The Lesser
Antilles. The Wave Is Associated With A Large But Disorganized
Area Of Showers And Thunderstorms....and Any Development Of This
System Is Expected To Be Slow To Occur It Continues Westward At 10
To 15 Mph.

Elsewhere...tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.

$$

Forecaster Pasch

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