Post Reply 
Tropical Depression #10
09-17-2007, 12:04 PM
Post: #31
Tropical Depression #10
The area east of Florida could be a hot spot for tropical development early next week.
Beginning Sunday, rain clouds will start to gather over that part of the ocean.
The other important player will be a big high pressure system to the north.
Sometimes, a high in that position will hand off some reverse spin to the tropics, much like the meshing of gears.
When that happens, a tropical storm can form. We'll watch for any sign of this early next week. In the near term, it's just something to keep in the back of your mind.


I don't know about this, but from where I'm sitting in NEFL, it's looking like tropical storm weather NOW!!! NE winds at 20MPH gusting to 30 and I'm wondering if I'm going to be able to get home this afternoon after 4+ inches since midnight and still coming.
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-17-2007, 12:42 PM
Post: #32
Tropical Depression #10
[QOUTE]I don't know about this, but from where I'm sitting in NEFL, it's looking like tropical storm weather NOW!!! NE winds at 20MPH gusting to 30 and I'm wondering if I'm going to be able to get home this afternoon after 4+ inches since midnight and still coming.[/quote]

There is a mid level low over North Central Florida today, the thunderstorm activity off the east coast is associated with both the low and frontal boundary stalled across the state, plus the warm waters of the Atlantic.

I guess some models are hinting at developing this, but right not it is not tropical in nature, plus you have a trough digging into the east/southeast of the united States. So if something develops it will be cold core for now.
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-17-2007, 02:15 PM
Post: #33
Tropical Depression #10
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
418 am CDT Monday Sep 17 2007


Short term [today and tonight]...the latest surface analysis shows
a surface wedge extending from the Carolinas into northern Alabama
and Mississippi. This pattern supports somewhat cooler than
guidance temperatures tonight as clear skies otherwise contribute to
radiational cooling. Dry conditions continue over the region as
deep layer ridging remains over the southeast states. Daytime
temperatures will be near seasonable levels. /29



Long term [tuesday through sunday]...surface high pressure over the
middle Atlantic noses southwest into the southern states early in the
period. A narrow middle level ridge and dry air aloft makes for mostly
sunny daytime conditions with temperatures in the middle to upper 80s
for daily highs Tuesday and Wednesday. Late in the week...the global
model members of the GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/Navy NOGAPS and Canadian Gem
bring a surface low feature...originating anywhere from off the
Florida southeast coast to the Florida Straits westward across the
Gulf. The Canadian is the most robust of the five...taking a tropical
system westward across the middle Gulf Thursday through
Saturday...approaching the Lower Texas coast. The GFS/UKMET and
European model (ecmwf) are further north and weaker...bringing a low pressure system
up into the Louisiana coast into the weekend. Although forecasters
see a great deal of spread...it appears that an upper ridge building
into the southeast US...should keep Gulf system on a west to west
northwest heading...south of the area. As this occurs though...wet
weather spreads in from the southeast. Due to the
uncertainties...will stay close to the latest probabilities of
precipitation as offered from the 9/17 00 UTC mex MOS output

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-17-2007, 04:46 PM
Post: #34
Tropical Depression #10
Abnt20 Knhc 172125
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
530 Pm Edt Mon Sep 17 2007

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

A Westward-moving Tropical Wave Located Over The Bahamas Is
Producing Scattered Shower Activity. In Addition...showers And
Thunderstorms Near The Northeastern Coast Of Florida Are Associated
With The Tail End Of A Frontal Boundary. While Conditions Are
Currently Unfavorable For Development Of Either Of These
Systems...slow Development Is Possible Over Florida Or The Eastern
Gulf Of Mexico In A Couple Of Days As These Systems Interact.

The Remnants Of Tropical Depression Ingrid Are Located Just East Of
The Northernmost Leeward Islands. Redevelopment Of This System Is
Not Expected During The Next Couple Of Days As It Moves Slowly
West-northwestward.

A Tropical Wave Located About 900 Miles East Of The Lesser
Antilles Is Producing A Large But Disorganized Area Of Showers And
Thunderstorms. Any Development Of This System Is Expected To Be
Slow To Occur It Continues Westward At 10 To 15 Mph.

Elsewhere...tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.

$$

Forecaster Knabb/rhome

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-17-2007, 05:07 PM
Post: #35
Tropical Depression #10
sawgrass Wrote:Is it Nov. 30th yet lol

I wish...

Yet, Senior Meteorologist B. Anderson reports:

[SIZE="2"]End of the Week Trouble in the Gulf?[/SIZE]
[SIZE="1"]Updated: Monday, September 17, 2007 5:47 PM
[/SIZE]
Southeasterly steering winds in the upper atmosphere may end up spreading tropical moisture back northward into the Gulf of Mexico by the end of a week as a storm in the upper levels of the atmosphere shifts westward through the Gulf.

Atmospheric conditions could also become more favorable for tropical development this weekend and into next week in the Gulf.

. [Image: iws6_430.jpg]
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-17-2007, 07:16 PM
Post: #36
Tropical Depression #10
1 local NOLA met gave 3 different scenarios. seems no one is sure yet.
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-17-2007, 08:40 PM
Post: #37
Tropical Depression #10
I am here on the Ms Gulf Coast and humidity and dew points are back up.
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-17-2007, 09:25 PM
Post: #38
Tropical Depression #10
I noticed a huge change this afternoon from yesterday here in St Tammany Parish, LA. Yesterday was gorgeous, dry, cool morning. Almost felt like a fall day. This evening muggy, no breeze, hot. Love bugs are unmerciful!
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-17-2007, 09:55 PM
Post: #39
Tropical Depression #10
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1030 Pm Edt Mon Sep 17 2007

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

A Large Area Of Disorganized Cloudiness And Thunderstorms Extends
From The East Coast Of Florida Eastward A Few Hundred Miles Over
The Western Atlantic And Bahamas. This Activity Is Associated With
A Tropical Wave And An Upper-level Trough. Conditions Are
Currently Unfavorable For Development In This Area...but Slow
Development Is Possible In A Couple Of Days As The System Moves
Westward Over Florida And Into The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico. Locally
Heavy Rainfall Is Possible Over Portions Of The Florida Peninsula
And The Bahamas During The Next Day Or Two.

The Remnants Of Tropical Depression Ingrid Are Located Just East Of
The Northernmost Leeward Islands. Redevelopment Is Not Expected
During The Next Couple Of Days As This System Moves Slowly
Northwestward.

Shower Activity Is Limited In Association With A Tropical Wave
Located About 850 Miles East Of The Lesser Antilles. Any
Development Of This System Is Expected To Be Slow To Occur As It
Continues Westward At 10 To 15 Mph.

Elsewhere...tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-17-2007, 10:25 PM
Post: #40
Tropical Depression #10
It's still cool tonight in New Orleans, but whatever happens, let it pass us by.
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 


Forum Jump:


User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)