Tropical Storm Dolly main thread

[brett3116]

downgraded to a TS again.

[ROLLTIDE]

Wtnt34 Knhc 240235
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Dolly Advisory Number 15
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042008
1000 Pm Cdt Wed Jul 23 2008

...dolly Weakens To A Tropical Storm But Heavy Rains Continue...
At 10 Pm Cdt...0300 Utc...all Hurricane Warnings Along The Coasts Of
Texas And Mexico Have Been Discontinued.

At 10 Pm Cdt...a Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect From
Brownsville To Port Aransas Texas. Coastal Tropical Storm Warnings
Elsewhere Are Discontinued.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 1000 Pm Cdt...0300z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Dolly Was
Located Near Latitude 26.5 North...longitude 98.1 West Or About 55
Miles... 90 Km...northwest Of Brownsville Texas.

Dolly Is Moving Toward The West Near 7 Mph...11 Km/hr. A Turn Back
To The West-northwest Is Expected Tomorrow With A Slight Increase
In Forward Speed Until The System Dissipates On Friday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 70 Mph...110 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Dolly Is Expected To Continue Weakening As It Moves Further
Inland...and Dolly Could Become A Tropical Depression By Late
Tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 115 Miles...185 Km
From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 981 Mb...28.97 Inches.

Dolly Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 8 To 12
Inches...with Isolated Amounts Of 20 Inches...over Portions Of
South Texas And Northeastern Mexico Over The Next Few Days...causing
Widespread Flooding In These Areas.

Coastal Storm Surge Flooding Will Subside Tonight.

[Windwatcher]

TexChef Wrote:Just talked to my 78 yr old grandparents who live in Weslaco, between Harligen and McAllen, they said its worse than Beula. They have been without power for some time, and have no generator. They are going to try and get one in the morn, if they cant I will be making a trip down there soon to pack them up and move them north. It doesnt look like its getting better anytime soon, and without power they will not make it long. I send my prayers to all down there I think its much worse than they ever expected. I know the NHC was right on with the track, but NO one down there expected this strength. There are alot of people in alot of trouble down there right now, please send your prayers tonite.

They're in our prayers, TexChef. We never are really prepared for how awesomely powerful these things are, no matter how much we're warned. Take care of the folks---the heat will probably be unbearable tomorrow.

[geauxtigers]

TexChef,I have elderly Grandparents, also, you need be there to get them for when the sun comes up, or earlier, way before it gets hot, best wishes!

[pebbles536]

TexChef, get them out before the heat kicks in. Your an awesome grandchild for taking care of them. You will be in my prayers. Best wishes!

[salth2o]

Rolltide...thanks for all the updates (I know you do this for all the storms), but for us Texans here, this thread was helpful!

[Alabamaboy]

Here are the latest positions as of 11:00PM CST by the NHC

[ROLLTIDE]

Wtnt34 Knhc 241139
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Dolly Intermediate Advisory Number 16a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042008
700 Am Cdt Thu Jul 24 2008

...dolly Producing Heavy Rains Over Deep South Texas...

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect Along The Texas Coast
From Brownsville To Port Aransas. This Warning Will Likely Be
Discontinued Later This Morning.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 700 Am Cdt...1200z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Dolly Was
Located Inland Texas Near Latitude 27.2 North...longitude 98.9 West
Or About 50 Miles...80 Km...east-southeast Of Laredo.

Dolly Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 7 Mph...11 Km/hr. A
Continued Motion Toward The West-northwest Is Expected During The
Next Day Or So...with A Slight Increase In Forward Speed Until The
System Dissipates On Friday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 50 Mph...80 Km/hr...
With Higher Gusts. Dolly Is Expected To Weaken As It Moves Farther
Inland...and It Is Expected To Become A Tropical Depression Later
Today.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 85 Miles...140 Km
From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 995 Mb...29.38 Inches.

Dolly Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 8 To 12
Inches...with Isolated Amounts Of 20 Inches...over Portions Of
South Texas And Northeastern Mexico. These Rains Are Very Likely To
Cause Widespread Flooding.

Repeating The 700 Am Cdt Position...27.2 N...98.9 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 7 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...50
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...995 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
1000 Am Cdt.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Wtnt44 Knhc 240846
Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 16
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042008
500 Am Edt Thu Jul 24 2008

The Center Of Dolly Is Slowly Wobbling Along...well Inland Over Deep
South Texas...at About 295/6. The Eye Is Almost Gone From Radar
Imagery...but The Surrounding Rain Shield Is Still Quite
Solid...especially In The Southeastern Semicircle Where It Extends
All The Way Down Across The Rio Grande And Eastward Back To The
Coast. In Addition...a Few Potent Outer Rain Bands Persist
Near And Just Off The Coast. Wsr-88d Velocities Adjusted For
Altitude Suggest Surface Winds As Strong As About 50 Kt Along The
Coastline Due East Of The Center...so The Initial Intensity Is Set
To 50 Kt...and The Coastal Tropical Storm Warning Remains In
Effect. As Dolly Proceeds Inland Today...winds Will Diminish Along
The Coast...and The Coastal Tropical Storm Warning Will Likely Be
Discontinued Later This Morning.
The Current West-northwestward Heading Should Continue For The Next
Day Or Two...with Perhaps A Little Increase In Forward Speed...as
Dolly Is Steered By A Mid-level Ridge To Its North. This Motion
Will Take The Cyclone Farther Inland And Over Increasingly Rugged
Terrain...so Dolly Is Forecast To Weaken To A Depression Within 24
Hours...and The Circulation Is Not Expected To Last For More Than
36-48 Hours. Despite The Forecast Weakening...dolly Will Continue
To Dump Very Heavy Rains For Many More Hours...so A Significant
Potential For Inland Flooding Continues.


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 24/0900z 26.9n 98.6w 50 Kt
12hr Vt 24/1800z 27.3n 99.8w 35 Kt...inland
24hr Vt 25/0600z 27.9n 101.9w 25 Kt...inland
36hr Vt 25/1800z 28.4n 104.1w 20 Kt...remnant Low
48hr Vt 26/0600z...dissipated

$$
Forecaster Knabb

Wwww

[ROLLTIDE]

Quote:URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
700 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 700 AM UNTIL 600
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH OF PALACIOS TEXAS
TO 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAREDO TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION
OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES [url="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0741.html"]TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 741[/url]. WATCH NUMBER 741 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
700 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY-SHEARED LOW-LVL
ENVIRONMENT IN NRN QUADRANT OF T.D. DOLLY WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
UPDRAFTS/STORMS WITH LOW-LVL ROTATION/POSSIBLE TORNADOES. SFC
HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG ARC OF CONFLUENCE EXTENDING N/NE
FROM CIRCULATION CENTER MAY FOSTER EXPANSION OF EXISTING
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IN OUTER FRINGE OF CIRCULATION LATER TODAY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 15035.

[ROLLTIDE]

Please check in Texas members if you were in the path of Dolly and let me know how you faired and what you are seeing this morning as you wake up