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Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
07-13-2008, 02:35 PM
Post: #11
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
This thing is really looking good and I wouldn't be shocked if we have a TD by tomorrow morning


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

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07-13-2008, 04:02 PM
Post: #12
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
Nothing of interest in that area across Central America?
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07-13-2008, 05:33 PM
Post: #13
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
18Z GFS
[Image: gfs_ten_150m.gif]

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07-13-2008, 06:26 PM
Post: #14
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
Now we got some action!!!
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07-13-2008, 09:24 PM
Post: #15
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
[Image: avn-l.jpg][Image: rb-l.jpg]

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07-13-2008, 09:26 PM
Post: #16
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
Upgraded to a high risk area now 00ABNT20 KNHC 132352TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL800 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICALSTORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.THE TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OFORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSIONAT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES GENERALLYWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.$$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB[Image: atl_overview.gif]

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07-13-2008, 11:17 PM
Post: #17
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
Right now down here in Florida we have a trough that has settled on top of us and the flow is from the west. This trough is expected to stick around through Wednesday and then retrograde west/northwest.

In its place we are expected to get back a more normal summer time pattern (southeast winds from high pressure in Atlantic).

The official forecast discussion for the Tampa area:

[FONT="Arial"]LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED WITH MODELS KEEPING A WEAKENING TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW OVER FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THEN DRIFTING IT NORTH NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THURSDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE RATHER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR MID-WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AT ALMOST ANYTIME. THEN AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO THE MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. [/FONT]

Granted there is time to watch this, but the pattern so far for Florida has been this pesky trough since May keeping our flow west to east. At times it has broken down only to be replaced later by the same flow. So we'll see what happens.
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07-14-2008, 12:45 AM (This post was last modified: 07-14-2008 12:47 AM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #18
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
TCFA issued

[Image: al942008.08071400.gif]

[Image: 20080714.0445.goes12.x.ir1km_bw.94LINVES....100pc.jpg]

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07-14-2008, 01:42 AM
Post: #19
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
[Image: at200894_model.gif]
[Image: at200894_model_zoom.gif]

Looks like the more reliable models are coming on line, now, and have this thing making a beeline for the islands. This will be one to watch..

Travis
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07-14-2008, 06:54 AM (This post was last modified: 07-14-2008 06:58 AM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #20
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
[Image: 20080714.1015.goes12.x.vis1km_high.94LIN....100pc.jpg]
[Image: 20080714.0838.f17.x.91hw.94LINVEST.25kts...W.67pc.jpg]
[Image: 20080714.0838.f17.x.composite.94LINVEST....W.67pc.jpg]

[Image: storm_94.]

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