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Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
07-14-2008, 11:01 AM
Post: #31
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
SevereWxEnthusiast Wrote:I know I murdered the terminology on this, but can someone post a pic of, or a link to see a pic of where the current warm water loops and eddys are in the Gulf? IF 94L takes that course will we have to deal with an intensity explosion:eek: like in '04 (Ivan) and in '05 (Katrina)?:confused:

The current map doesn't show the eddy in the Gulf that intensified Katrina and Rita in 2005 but as you can see, water temps are more than warm enough to sustain intensification.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/?index_region=at

[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC] What do urine samples and Canadian beer have in common? The taste.
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07-14-2008, 11:07 AM
Post: #32
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
I don't think this is the one you are looking for but here goes
[Image: atl_anal.gif]

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07-14-2008, 11:09 AM
Post: #33
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
Doesn't look like shear will be a problem for this system in the next few days.

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie....gpshrcolor

[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC] What do urine samples and Canadian beer have in common? The taste.
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07-14-2008, 11:17 AM
Post: #34
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[Image: track_early2.png]

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07-14-2008, 11:39 AM
Post: #35
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
Here are the latest OFFICIAL model runs as of 14/12Z by the NHC

Retired from ASA now for some real flying
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07-14-2008, 11:44 AM
Post: #36
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
Are we trusting any one of these tracks more than another? Or just shoot a line down the middle like the BAMD?

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07-14-2008, 12:59 PM
Post: #37
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
chgqlm
Attention...national Hurricane Center

Ncep Coupled Gfdl Hurricane Model Forecast Made For

Tropical Depression Invest 94l

Initial Time 12z Jul 14

Disclaimer ... This Information Is Provided As Guidance. It
Requires Interpretation By Hurricane Specialists And Should
Not Be Considered As A Final Product. Please See The Tpc/nhc
Official Forecast.


Forecast Storm Position

Hour Latitude Longitude Heading/speed(kt)

0 11.1 42.0 300./14.0
6 11.4 42.7 291./ 6.8

Storm Dissipated At 6 Hrs At The Above Psn.

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07-14-2008, 01:34 PM (This post was last modified: 07-14-2008 01:36 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #38
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
2pm

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS INCREASED A LITTLE SINCE
THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT
ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 MPH.

[Image: latest.gif]

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07-14-2008, 01:36 PM
Post: #39
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
00
Agxx40 Knhc 141721
Mimats

Marine Weather Discussion
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
300 Pm Edt Mon Jul 14 2008

Marine Weather Discussion For Gulf Of Mexico...caribbean Sea And
Southwest North Atlc S Of 31n W Of 55w.

A Tropical Wave S Of 17n Along 42w And An Associated 1008 Mb Low
Pressure Center Along The Wave Near 12n Is Moving W At 10 To 15
Kt. This System Should Continue To Track Along The Southern
Edge Of An Upper Trough Through Wed. By Thu...expect A Weak
Upper Low To Pinch Off From This Trough And Continue To Track
With The System Through The Islands Fri And Sat. The Upper
Level Diffluence Ahead Of This Upper Troughing/low Should Help
Support Convection With The Tropical Wave Through Wed. Please
See The Twoat For Further Details On This System.

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07-14-2008, 01:55 PM
Post: #40
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
T-numbers= 2.0/2.0

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