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Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
07-13-2008, 02:15 AM (This post was last modified: 07-23-2008 07:08 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #1
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
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07-13-2008, 02:18 AM
Post: #2
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
The GFS has been consistent of forming this disturbed area into Cristobal and re-curving the storm away from the US. The GFS did a wonderful job with Bertha so I would say for right now the US may be safe but there is a lot of time to wait and see. I am going to Orlando this Fri, so I will really be keeping an eye on this one. lol
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07-13-2008, 02:46 AM
Post: #3
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
Oh boy... here we go..
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07-13-2008, 03:23 AM
Post: #4
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
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07-13-2008, 07:05 AM
Post: #5
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
I've been watching this area over the past couple of days and I like the chances of this one. Plenty of convection embedded into the ITCZ with the SHIPS model forecasting low shear in the impeding environment. The models have been showing development in this are with consistency from run to run, however the location is now further south then what the GFS has been depicting.


TWO 8:00AM:
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


Edit: 48 hour potential tropical formation chart now shows a medium chance of development for this area (i.e. 20-50%)
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07-13-2008, 07:33 AM (This post was last modified: 07-13-2008 08:10 AM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #6
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
meh, i saw the post about the models predictinng a storm, but at the moment, it looks like a @$@$ sandwich. Plenty of time to watch.
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07-13-2008, 08:28 AM (This post was last modified: 07-13-2008 11:35 AM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #7
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
Abnt20 Knhc 131145
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
800 Am Edt Sun Jul 13 2008

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

The National Hurricane Center Is Issuing Advisories On
Recently-downgraded Tropical Storm Bertha...located About 220 Miles
Southeast Of Bermuda.

an Area Of Disturbed Weather Has Formed Over The Tropical Atlantic
About 1600 Miles East Of The Southern Windward Islands. Conditions
Appear Favorable For Additional Development Of This System During
The Next Couple Of Days.


Shower Activity Has Increased This Morning In Association With A
Weak Frontal Low Pressure Area Centered About 130 Miles Southeast
Of Charleston South Carolina. Slow Development Of This System Is
Possible During The Next Day Or Two As Moves Slowly To The
Northeast.

Elsewhere...tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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07-13-2008, 01:07 PM
Post: #8
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
From the 2 PM Discussion.

......SPECIAL FEATURE.....

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15
KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS A LARGE WELL DEFINED ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC
TURNING...FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW CENTER. SHIP TBWUK18 REPORTED 27
KT S WINDS SE OF THE LOW CENTER AT 12Z...UNFORTUNATELY BOTH
ASCAT AND QSCAT MISSED THE REGION. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240
NM W AND 60 NM E SEMICIRCLES. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS LOCATED
WITHIN THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 36W-44W.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

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07-13-2008, 01:56 PM
Post: #9
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
GFDL is showing a cat 2 hurricane just north of the islands. Although I think it will be more to the south heading into the eastern caribbean.:gun1:
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07-13-2008, 02:33 PM
Post: #10
Tropical Storm Dolly main thread
72
Whxx01 Kwbc 131849
Chghur
Tropical Cyclone Guidance Message
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1849 Utc Sun Jul 13 2008

Disclaimer...numerical Models Are Subject To Large Errors.
Please Refer To Nhc Official Forecasts For Tropical Cyclone
And Subtropical Cyclone Information.

Atlantic Objective Aids For

Disturbance Invest (al942008) 20080713 1800 Utc

...00 Hrs... ...12 Hrs... ...24 Hrs. .. ...36 Hrs...
080713 1800 080714 0600 080714 1800 080715 0600

Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon
Bams 9.3n 38.2w 9.7n 39.5w 10.1n 41.4w 10.3n 43.7w
Bamd 9.3n 38.2w 9.7n 40.2w 10.2n 42.3w 10.5n 44.7w
Bamm 9.3n 38.2w 9.9n 40.0w 10.4n 41.9w 10.5n 44.2w
Lbar 9.3n 38.2w 9.7n 40.0w 10.2n 42.3w 10.4n 44.8w
Ship 25kts 34kts 41kts 49kts
Dshp 25kts 34kts 41kts 49kts

...48 Hrs... ...72 Hrs... ...96 Hrs. .. ..120 Hrs...
080715 1800 080716 1800 080717 1800 080718 1800

Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon
Bams 10.4n 46.4w 10.5n 52.6w 9.9n 59.0w 9.6n 64.4w
Bamd 10.8n 47.4w 11.0n 53.1w 10.9n 59.3w 11.7n 65.8w
Bamm 10.6n 46.9w 10.4n 52.7w 9.7n 58.4w 9.6n 64.3w
Lbar 10.8n 47.6w 11.4n 53.5w 12.0n 59.8w 10.6n 65.1w
Ship 57kts 74kts 80kts 80kts
Dshp 57kts 74kts 80kts 42kts

...initial Conditions...
Latcur = 9.3n Loncur = 38.2w Dircur = 285deg Spdcur = 8kt
Latm12 = 8.8n Lonm12 = 36.6w Dirm12 = 280deg Spdm12 = 6kt
Latm24 = 8.6n Lonm24 = 35.6w
Wndcur = 25kt Rmaxwd = 45nm Wndm12 = 20kt
Cenprs = 1008mb Outprs = 1011mb Outrad = 180nm Sdepth = D
Rd34ne = 0nm Rd34se = 0nm Rd34sw = 0nm Rd34nw = 0nm

$$

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