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08-11-2008, 12:54 AM
Post: #31
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000
Abnt20 Knhc 110548
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
200 Am Edt Mon Aug 11 2008

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

A Broad Area Of Low Pressure Associated With A Tropical Wave Is
Located Over The Central Atlantic Ocean About 900 Miles East Of
The Windward Islands. Although Associated Shower And Thunderstorm
Activity Remains Disorganized...environmental Conditions Appear
Favorable For Gradual Development...and This System Has The
Potential To Become A Tropical Depression During The Next Couple Of
Days As It Moves Westward At 15 To 20 Mph.

A Large Area Of Disorganized Showers And Thunderstorms Is Located
Over The Eastern Atlantic A Couple Hundred Miles Southwest Of The
Cape Verde Islands. Slow Development Of This System Is Possible
During The Next Couple Of Days As It Moves Westward At About 15
Mph.

Elsewhere.. Tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.

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08-11-2008, 06:23 AM
Post: #32
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[Image: at200892_sat.jpg]

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08-11-2008, 06:57 AM
Post: #33
TD Fay main thread
000
Abnt20 Knhc 111140
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
800 Am Edt Mon Aug 11 2008

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

A Broad Area Of Low Pressure Associated With A Tropical Wave Is
Located Over The Central Atlantic Ocean About 850 Miles East Of
The Windward Islands. Although Associated Shower And Thunderstorm
Activity Is Currently Limited...environmental Conditions Appear
Favorable For Gradual Development...and This System Has The
Potential To Become A Tropical Depression During The Next Couple Of
Days As It Moves Westward At 15 To 20 Mph.

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08-11-2008, 07:22 AM
Post: #34
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Uh-oh. Looks like an embryo to me. Next weekend will be busy.
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08-11-2008, 08:24 AM
Post: #35
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11/1145 Utc 11.4n 47.5w Too Weak 92l
11/0545 Utc 10.9n 46.6w T1.0/1.5 92l
10/2345 Utc 11.1n 46.2w T1.0/1.5 92l
10/1745 Utc 11.4n 43.6w T1.5/1.5 92l

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08-11-2008, 08:24 AM
Post: #36
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Jeff Master's still thinks 92L will develop slowly.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200808

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08-11-2008, 08:40 AM
Post: #37
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That was yesterday's blog. I think he might change his prediction at this point. I just don't know if 92 can handle the dry air and shear that it's experiencing. Kind of a one/two punch. Although, if it can keep itself together for another 12 hours it gets into much more favorable conditions.
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08-11-2008, 12:44 PM
Post: #38
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 111732
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 825 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/

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08-11-2008, 03:05 PM
Post: #39
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Dry air looking like it wants to give in to 92L. moisture is expanding we might be seeing some restructuring taking place. any thoughts?
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08-11-2008, 03:19 PM
Post: #40
TD Fay main thread
atlantic Objective Aids For

Disturbance Invest (al922008) 20080811 1800 Utc

...00 Hrs... ...12 Hrs... ...24 Hrs. .. ...36 Hrs...
080811 1800 080812 0600 080812 1800 080813 0600

Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon
Bams 12.2n 48.4w 13.1n 50.2w 14.3n 52.2w 15.4n 54.3w
Bamd 12.2n 48.4w 13.3n 50.3w 14.7n 52.3w 16.1n 54.3w
Bamm 12.2n 48.4w 13.0n 50.2w 14.0n 52.2w 15.0n 54.2w
Lbar 12.2n 48.4w 13.1n 50.4w 14.4n 52.6w 15.8n 54.9w
Ship 25kts 29kts 35kts 43kts
Dshp 25kts 29kts 35kts 43kts

...48 Hrs... ...72 Hrs... ...96 Hrs. .. ..120 Hrs...
080813 1800 080814 1800 080815 1800 080816 1800

Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon
Bams 16.7n 56.5w 18.8n 61.1w 20.7n 66.1w 22.1n 69.9w
Bamd 17.3n 56.2w 18.6n 60.5w 19.0n 65.0w 18.6n 69.1w
Bamm 16.0n 56.1w 17.2n 60.1w 18.2n 64.4w 18.7n 68.4w
Lbar 17.0n 57.5w 18.4n 62.6w 19.0n 67.9w 19.7n 71.4w
Ship 50kts 64kts 69kts 70kts
Dshp 50kts 64kts 69kts 67kts

...initial Conditions...
Latcur = 12.2n Loncur = 48.4w Dircur = 295deg Spdcur = 10kt
Latm12 = 11.4n Lonm12 = 46.7w Dirm12 = 293deg Spdm12 = 10kt
Latm24 = 10.7n Lonm24 = 44.5w
Wndcur = 25kt Rmaxwd = 60nm Wndm12 = 25kt
Cenprs = 1008mb Outprs = 1011mb Outrad = 180nm Sdepth = M
Rd34ne = 0nm Rd34se = 0nm Rd34sw = 0nm Rd34nw = 0nm


[Image: at200892_model.gif]

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