TD Fay main thread

[Rick...Rick]

It forms a perfect little eye in the 20:45 UTC NOAA satellite pictures, Visible or Water Vapor. It spreads out in the next frame, but it's trying.

At a distance, those angry spiral tendrils are forming fast. Got a spirally look to it.

At flhurricane.com they have a statement about how the North Atlantic Oscillation is acting up. Getting past the childish showing off, seems the air between the North Atlantic and South sloshes back and forth like in a bathtub on a train. It has a regular general sloshing, once every couple seconds or so on an irregular basis. And there is, of course, smaller waves of all shapes and forms in additional to that primary movement of the water (air).

Anyway, looks like they apply hack mathematics to the data of how the water is sloshing, and seems something unusual is happening. Seems a lot of the little and big waves are in synch, and are headed for the other side of the tub at the same time, causing a record flow of water, where the water may slosh out of the tub.

And sloshing out of the Tub is very good for hurricanes. Slams them into the US or something. Well, they have the data and history so you have to take their word for it.

Says that all means we're about to have several hurricanes at a time, like a shooting gallery.

There goes the insurance.

[richardginn]

looks good so far.

[ROLLTIDE]

richardginn Wrote:looks good so far.

I disagree

[Rick...Rick]

Ain't broken into no North Atlantic Oscillation mad dog frency, but looks kinda spirally to me. Most of those angry tendrils are in the last hour.

[ROLLTIDE]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 102344
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH

[HoumaLA_WXguy]

Well.. I know 115.00 per barrel oil couldn't last.

[Batt2fd]

Good looking wind field...

[ROLLTIDE]

Tropical Weather Discussion
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
805 Pm Edt Sun Aug 10 2008

...special Features...
A Broad Area Of Low Pressure Is Associated With An Atlantic
Ocean Tropical Wave That Is Along 42w/44w South Of 18n.
The Low Center Is Near 11n. Isolated Moderate Showers To
Locally Strong Thunderstorms Are From 8n To 16n Between 38w
And 47w. Associated Shower And Thunderstorm Activity Has Been
Increasing Slowly During The Last 24 Hours...and Conditions
Appear Somewhat Favorable For Gradual Development Of This System
During The Next Couple Of Days As It Moves Westward 15 To 20 Mph.

[jpeltier]

The models are pretty tight. Is this unusual for such an early forecast? Thanks!!!

[mmru4real]

So far all the models are developing this one and most have it near the Bahamas between 120 and 144 hours. This one definitely bears watching!