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09-01-2008, 08:54 AM
Post: #21
Hurricane Ike main thread
[Image: storm_09.gif]

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09-01-2008, 08:55 AM
Post: #22
Hurricane Ike main thread
09L.NINE , NO NAME IKE
[Image: 20080901.1315.goes12.x.vis1km_high.09LNI....100pc.jpg]

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09-01-2008, 09:57 AM
Post: #23
Hurricane Ike main thread
1100 AM AST MON SEP 01 2008

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS HALF WAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE
39.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1470 MILES...2365 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...17.6 N...39.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Image: 144313W_sm.gif]
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED PLENTLY OF CONVECTION..NUMEROUS
CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS AND A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AT THIS TIME BUT I WOULD
RATHER WAIT TO SEE IF THE DEEP CONVECTION HOLDS FOR WHILE TO CALL IT
A TROPICAL STORM...PROBABLY IN THE NEXT ADVISORY. INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 30 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH AND THE
LOW SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL.

SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS JUST FORMED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A
LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS.
THE
DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
BUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREFATER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 17.6N 39.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 18.0N 41.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 19.0N 44.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 20.0N 47.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.5N 50.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 22.0N 56.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 23.0N 62.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 23.5N 68.5W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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09-01-2008, 10:47 AM
Post: #24
Hurricane Ike main thread
I need a drink. lol Welcome to September!
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09-01-2008, 11:27 AM
Post: #25
Hurricane Ike main thread
nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo! Go awayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!
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09-01-2008, 11:29 AM
Post: #26
Hurricane Ike main thread
Windwatcher Wrote:nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo! Go awayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!

/yeathat

Hurricane season /sweet1/sweet1
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09-01-2008, 11:33 AM
Post: #27
Hurricane Ike main thread
I don't like these model runs!
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09-01-2008, 11:35 AM
Post: #28
Hurricane Ike main thread
SirCane Wrote:I don't like these model runs!

Neither do I SIR!

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09-01-2008, 12:09 PM
Post: #29
Hurricane Ike main thread
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09-01-2008, 01:01 PM
Post: #30
Hurricane Ike main thread
I have a bad feeling about this one. /help
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