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09-01-2008, 01:23 PM
Post: #31
Hurricane Ike main thread
Is that the one that ECMWF has going into the gulf at the end of their run?

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...21%21step/

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09-01-2008, 01:50 PM
Post: #32
Hurricane Ike main thread
someweather Wrote:Is that the one that ECMWF has going into the gulf at the end of their run?

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...21%21step/

Looks like. It has Hanna going up the east coast of the US. Right behind her is Ike going into the GOM and then curving toward the Panhandle of Florida.
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09-01-2008, 01:55 PM
Post: #33
Hurricane Ike main thread
If gustav was K then TD9 is, oh /censor

[Image: 144313W_sm.gif]

Hopefully it will be more weak as well.
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09-01-2008, 03:45 PM
Post: #34
Hurricane Ike main thread
500 pm ast mon sep 01 2008

...ike...the ninth tropical storm of the season...forms over the
tropical atlantic...

At 500 pm ast...2100z...the center of the newly formed tropical
storm ike was located near latitude 17.7 north...longitude 40.6
west or about 1400 miles...2250 km...east of the leeward islands.

Ike is moving toward the west near 16 mph...26 km/hr...and this
general motion between the west and west-northwest is expected to
continue during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph...85 km/hr...
With higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast and ike
could become a hurricane in day or two.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.

Repeating the 500 pm ast position...17.7 n...40.6 w. Movement
toward...west near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
1100 pm ast.

$$
forecaster avila
[Image: 204013W_sm.gif]
500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED...CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING MORE DISTINCT
AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. ON THIS
BASIS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM IKE WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH
AND THE LOW SHEAR...IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE RATE OF STRENGTHENING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE BUT MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFDL AND SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER THAN THE HWRF. THE LATTER MAKES IKE AN INTENSE HURRICANE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE STORM
IS ALREADY LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
BUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST OR EVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST . THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 17.7N 40.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.0N 42.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 18.5N 45.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.5N 48.5W 70 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 51.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 58.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 22.0N 64.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 22.0N 69.5W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

PA Weather Watcher:omgwtf

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09-01-2008, 03:49 PM
Post: #35
Hurricane Ike main thread
[Image: dvor-nh09L.GIF]

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09-01-2008, 04:00 PM
Post: #36
Hurricane Ike main thread
&$&(#@@+*$#@*

Let's hope it recurves long before it gets to the GOM.
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09-01-2008, 04:07 PM
Post: #37
Hurricane Ike main thread
Ike looks pretty healthy

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09-01-2008, 04:09 PM
Post: #38
Hurricane Ike main thread
mmru4real Wrote:[Image: dvor-nh09L.GIF]

[SIZE="4"]Are you kidding me?[/SIZE] Is this his picture? He already looks ready to fight!
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09-01-2008, 04:12 PM
Post: #39
Hurricane Ike main thread
/speechm55I don't think I can hunker down thru another hurricane anytime soon. My husband is so bored he's in the kitchen singing "Old Man River" and any other goofy song he can think of. Getting on my nerves and aggrivating me big time! Help!
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09-01-2008, 04:23 PM
Post: #40
Hurricane Ike main thread
Hurricane Season 2005 Part II

[SIZE="4"][FONT="Verdana"]JAM[/FONT][/SIZE]
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