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Invest 91, GOM/ West Coast Florida threat.
10-20-2008, 03:23 PM
Post: #11
Invest 91, GOM/ West Coast Florida threat.
winter123 Wrote:disorganized? no way. There's a well defined COC near the nicaragua coast. This is TD 16 all over again (its the same disturbance, it should be named TD16) probably by 11pm.)

Also whats that off the NJ coast? 0_0
The remnants of TD16's circulation dissipated over central america. This is just leftover moisture, with a new circulation.
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10-20-2008, 03:55 PM
Post: #12
Invest 91, GOM/ West Coast Florida threat.
Daniel294 Wrote:The remnants of TD16's circulation dissipated over central america. This is just leftover moisture, with a new circulation.

Nope. And I have proof. You can see it makes landfall earlier than expected due to the land friction (forecasters STILL never take that into account even though there are many documented cases of it). Then the already broad circulation becomes even broader, and the strongest part moves east to over the carribean -
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gen_sat-u.cgi...oop=yes2x2

That then drifts WNW, stalls off belize, and develops in to what we see there today.-
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gen_sat-u.cgi...oop=yes2x2

(and for future reference http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gen_sat-u.cgi...oop=yes2x2 )
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10-20-2008, 04:00 PM
Post: #13
Invest 91, GOM/ West Coast Florida threat.
I see exactly what I said in those images.
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10-20-2008, 06:58 PM
Post: #14
Invest 91, GOM/ West Coast Florida threat.
000
abnt20 knhc 202339
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
800 pm edt mon oct 20 2008

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

An area of low pressure located over the gulf of honduras continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over a large
portion of the northwestern caribbean sea. This system appears to
be drifting westward toward land...and significant development is
not expected. Locally heavy rains are possible over portions of
honduras...guatemala...belize...and the yucatan peninsula during
the next couple of days.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$

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10-21-2008, 03:08 AM
Post: #15
Invest 91, GOM/ West Coast Florida threat.
Nt20 knhc 210543twoat tropical weather outlooknws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl200 am edt tue oct 21 2008for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...an area of low pressure drifting westward over the gulf of hondurascontinues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is not expected due toproximity to land...but locally heavy rains are possible overportions of honduras...guatemala...belize...and the yucatanpeninsula during the next couple of days.elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during thenext 48 hours.$$forecaster berg

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10-21-2008, 06:58 AM
Post: #16
Invest 91, GOM/ West Coast Florida threat.
Tropical Weather Discussion by Rob Lightbown:

Quote:An area of low pressure, labeled Invest 91-L, is drifting westward over the Gulf of Honduras. Satellite imagery shows disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low pressure system. Due to the proximity to land, development is not anticipated over the next day or two. The latest model data has a different scenario painted as compared to yesterday:
The GFS model forecasts that a piece of energy from 91-L will track into the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday and Friday and spawn an area of low pressure over the northeast Gulf of Mexico by late Friday. This low pressure system appears to be non-tropical in nature will track up the US East Coast this weekend bringing heavy rain and strong winds from Florida to Maine this weekend. The Canadian model, NOGAPS model, and UKMET models are all forecasting the same type of scenario late this week into this weekend.
Here is my take on Invest 91-L: I like the overall track as shown by the various models this morning. It seems to me that this system or a piece of this system will track slowly northward over the next couple of days and be drawn into a trough of low pressure pushing eastward late this week into this weekend. This will cause 91-L or a piece of 91-L to be swept up the US East Coast and will actually energize and strengthen the trough of low pressure. This in turn will cause a heavy windswept rain along the entire US East Coast this weekend. At this time, I think we will be looking at a non-tropical or perhaps even a highly sheared hybrid sub-tropical storm that will sweep up the US East Coast this weekend.
So, bottom line is that strong southeast winds and heavy rains are likely from Maine to Florida this weekend. I will be monitoring 91-L and its potential impacts on the US East Coast and I will keep you all updated.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT Wednesday.

"The ultimate judge of your swing is the flight of the ball." - Ben Hogan
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10-21-2008, 01:20 PM
Post: #17
Invest 91, GOM/ West Coast Florida threat.
Twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
200 pm edt tue oct 21 2008

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

A large area of disturbed weather is located over the northwestern
caribbean sea. Pressures have risen in this area and the system
remains disorganized. Significant development appears unlikely.
However...locally heavy rains are possible over portions of
honduras...guatemala...belize...and the yucatan peninsula as the
system drifts westward during the next day or so.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$

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10-21-2008, 07:03 PM
Post: #18
Invest 91, GOM/ West Coast Florida threat.
000
abnt20 knhc 212332
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
800 pm edt tue oct 21 2008

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms remain over the northwestern
caribbean sea and adjacent land areas in association with a weak
surface trough. Significant development appears unlikely due to
proximity of land. However...locally heavy rains are possible over
portions of honduras...guatemala...belize...and the yucatan
peninsula as the system drifts westward during the next day or so.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$

forecaster blake

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10-22-2008, 01:23 AM
Post: #19
Invest 91, GOM/ West Coast Florida threat.
Abnt20 knhc 220544
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
200 am edt wed oct 22 2008

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the
northwestern caribbean sea and adjacent land areas in association
with a weak surface trough. Significant development appears
unlikely due to proximity of land. However...locally heavy rains
are possible over portions of honduras...guatemala...belize...and
the yucatan peninsula as the system drifts westward during the next
day or so.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
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10-22-2008, 06:55 AM
Post: #20
Invest 91, GOM/ West Coast Florida threat.
Abnt20 knhc 220544
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
200 am edt wed oct 22 2008

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the
northwestern caribbean sea and adjacent land areas in association
with a weak surface trough. Significant development appears
unlikely due to proximity of land. However...locally heavy rains
are possible over portions of honduras...guatemala...belize...and
the yucatan peninsula as the system drifts westward during the next
day or so.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$

forecaster blake

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
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