Remnant Low ERIKA Analysis/Discussion Thread

[Bryan]

It's important to remember when systems are developing and computer models are run on the system, some of those computer models may over or under estimate the development of the system. When this is the case, a stronger/deeper system will be influenced more by mid atmospheric weaknesses in the sub-tropical ridge, while weaker/shallower system may not. Perfect example is with the 18Z model runs. The BAMS (shallow model) is keeping the system moving west, while other models are starting to recurve some to the north...possibly because these models are over intensifying the system (making is stronger/deeper), therefore mid latitude troughs will have more influence.

As already mentioned, once it starts generating and deepening, we'll see how the models pick up on it. At this point, too early to tell, so don't live and die by the models.

My 2 cents.
Cheers,
Bryan

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

8pm

Quote:AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[no looking back]

Roll how long will it take to upgrade 94L. It's looking pretty impressive right now, I would say at least a depression.

[SevereWxEnthusiast]

no looking back Wrote:Roll how long will it take to upgrade 94L. It's looking pretty impressive right now, I would say at least a depression.

Well it looks to me that the last few frames of the visible (infra red) sat view shows the whole system jerking into a spin. Kinda strange the way it's doing it, but I say TD by the 5am update or earlier. /smurf Goodnight. /smurf

[ROLLTIDE]

Code Red at 8am and a TD before the end of the day

[HoumaLA_WXguy]

GFDL calls for a strong Cat 3 storm, approaching the 100 hour mark..

[ROLLTIDE]

2AM

Quote:AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

[Daniel294]

[ROLLTIDE]