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Remnant Low ERIKA Analysis/Discussion Thread
08-26-2009, 10:51 AM
Post: #1
Remnant Low ERIKA Analysis/Discussion Thread
We are your one stop shop for info

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08-26-2009, 11:22 AM
Post: #2
Remnant Low ERIKA Analysis/Discussion Thread
The CMC is often times overly aggressive at developing tropical systems....especially when it comes to intensity forecasts. I would monitor it, but take it with a grain of salt at this point. The basin still does appear favorable at this point for further development of waves moving off of the African coast.
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08-26-2009, 12:54 PM
Post: #3
Remnant Low ERIKA Analysis/Discussion Thread
2pm code yellow

Quote:A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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08-26-2009, 08:22 PM
Post: #4
Remnant Low ERIKA Analysis/Discussion Thread
8pm

Quote:A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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08-26-2009, 08:34 PM
Post: #5
Remnant Low ERIKA Analysis/Discussion Thread
Brett Adair Wrote:The CMC is often times overly aggressive at developing tropical systems....especially when it comes to intensity forecasts. I would monitor it, but take it with a grain of salt at this point. The basin still does appear favorable at this point for further development of waves moving off of the African coast.

Surprisingly, the CMC did exceptionally well with Bill. On long-range intensity and track.

Somewhat overplayed Ana on intensity but nailed her on track.

Did they undergo a program overhaul in the offseason?
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08-26-2009, 08:51 PM
Post: #6
Remnant Low ERIKA Analysis/Discussion Thread
LSU TIGERS Wrote:Surprisingly, the CMC did exceptionally well with Bill. On long-range intensity and track.

Somewhat overplayed Ana on intensity but nailed her on track.

Did they undergo a program overhaul in the offseason?

This is true, but Brett is right..typically is it is pretty far fetched.

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08-27-2009, 01:17 AM
Post: #7
Remnant Low ERIKA Analysis/Discussion Thread
CMC has been pretty dead on this season, in terms of development/track, but not so much with intensity.

Travis

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08-27-2009, 05:08 AM
Post: #8
Remnant Low ERIKA Analysis/Discussion Thread
2am

Quote:A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
300 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

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08-27-2009, 08:02 AM
Post: #9
Remnant Low ERIKA Analysis/Discussion Thread
8am

Quote:A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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08-27-2009, 08:04 AM
Post: #10
Remnant Low ERIKA Analysis/Discussion Thread
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200908271249
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2009, DB, O, 2009082712, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942009
AL, 94, 2009082612, , BEST, 0, 114N, 195W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2009082618, , BEST, 0, 111N, 210W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2009082700, , BEST, 0, 109N, 226W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2009082706, , BEST, 0, 107N, 241W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2009082712, , BEST, 0, 105N, 256W, 25, 1009, DB

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