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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
11-03-2009, 11:19 AM
Post: #21
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
[Image: 97L.gif]

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11-03-2009, 12:44 PM
Post: #22
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
[Image: storm_97.gif]

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11-03-2009, 12:45 PM
Post: #23
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
GFDL makes this thing a Cane


Quote:WHXX04 KWBC 031723
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 12Z NOV 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.1 81.5 285./ 2.9
6 10.4 81.5 348./ 2.4
12 10.3 81.4 131./ 1.0
18 10.4 81.4 59./ .6
24 10.2 81.1 109./ 3.0
30 10.4 81.1 356./ 1.4
36 10.4 81.1 90./ .2
42 10.8 80.9 23./ 4.1
48 11.3 81.0 350./ 5.5
54 12.0 80.4 42./ 9.0
60 12.3 80.9 301./ 5.4
66 12.7 80.9 1./ 4.3
72 12.9 81.1 320./ 3.2
78 13.8 80.8 17./ 8.8
84 14.4 80.7 12./ 6.2
90 15.1 80.5 13./ 7.4
96 16.0 80.8 340./ 8.9
102 16.6 80.8 8./ 6.2
108 17.3 80.8 354./ 7.2
114 18.0 80.9 356./ 7.6
120 19.1 80.7 11./10.3
126 19.6 80.8 353./ 5.7

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical/guidance/

Animation of first GFDL run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

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11-03-2009, 12:48 PM
Post: #24
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
GFDL

Quote:HOUR: .0 LONG: -81.46 LAT: 10.15 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.60 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.22
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -81.51 LAT: 10.39 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.55 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.90
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -81.43 LAT: 10.32 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.84 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.28
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -81.38 LAT: 10.35 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.45 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 28.73
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -81.09 LAT: 10.25 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.71 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.19
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -81.10 LAT: 10.39 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.79 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.05
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -81.09 LAT: 10.39 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.35 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 30.05
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -80.93 LAT: 10.77 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.46 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 31.36
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -81.03 LAT: 11.31 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.45 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.55
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -80.42 LAT: 11.99 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.37 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.74
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -80.89 LAT: 12.27 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.74 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.02
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -80.88 LAT: 12.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.54 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.96
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -81.09 LAT: 12.95 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.46 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.19
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -80.83 LAT: 13.79 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.95 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.24
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -80.70 LAT: 14.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.07 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.16
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -80.54 LAT: 15.12 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.14 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.12
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -80.84 LAT: 15.96 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.98 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.59
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -80.75 LAT: 16.57 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.89 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.52
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -80.82 LAT: 17.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.22 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 52.26
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -80.87 LAT: 18.05 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.04 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.48
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -80.68 LAT: 19.07 MIN PRESS (hPa): 986.39 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 69.68
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -80.75 LAT: 19.64 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.92 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 66.83

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11-03-2009, 12:49 PM
Post: #25
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
Code red very soon

[Image: 2009AL97_1KMSRVIS_200911031645.GIF]

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11-03-2009, 12:58 PM
Post: #26
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
Code Orange but that will change at 7pm

Quote:ABNT20 KNHC 031751
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH LIMITED IN EXTENT...HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF
COSTA RICA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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11-03-2009, 01:30 PM
Post: #27
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
wow!!!

little guy is trying at least

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"Don't believe them, don't fear them, don't ask anything of them." ~Alexander Solzhenitsyn

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11-03-2009, 02:33 PM
Post: #28
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
From StormW at WU:

Quote:Posted by: StormW, 10:50 AM CST on November 03, 2009

Elsewhere, the area of disturbed weather I've been watching during the past 24 hours, has been designated as Tropical Disturbance INVEST 97L.

At 8:00 a.m., the center of this disturbance was estimated by satellite to be near 10.0N;81.5W which is just about east of Costa Rica. The disturbance has been quasi-stationary during the past 24 hours, but may recently have picked up a slight WNW drift, albeit slow. Given the weak steering currents at the moment, it would not be unusual for this system to make some looping motions, remaing almost stationary.

Based on the current layer steering mean, and forecast steering layers maps from 00Z, steering is going to be a little tricky, however with a consensus blend of the steering layers forecast, and possibility of a Tropical Depression, a quasi-stationary motion to NW drift appears to be the order right now. Should this system stay weak, the lower level steering would dominate, and most likely carry this into Nicaragua. IF this organizes and becomes depression or better yet a Tropical Storm, the mid layer mean would take over and induce a more northerly component, and based on the steering layers forecast, could keep this offshore and move it eventually toward the Yucatan Channel. However, little motion is expected over the next 2-3 days, and the steering pattern thereafter can change.

Current MJO information indicates upward motion in octant 1 of the MJO RMM1 and RMM2 chart. Octants 1 & 2 usually indicate a time of incresed chances of development in the Atlantic and Caribbean Basins.

The current wind shear map from CIMSS indicates an established upper level anti-cyclone very close to the "center" of 97L, which is providing a good outflow pattern. Though shear values are around 30-40 kts north of the system, bear in mind it's associated with the upper level anticyclone, and not straight shear, per se.

The shear forecast calls for shear to relax somewhat, providing a more conducive environment just to the north of 97L, and recent water vapor loop imagery would confrim this, as an upper level low to the NW of 97L is moving out to the NW, which should allow for better ventilation in the area of 97L, albeit not fully optimal, maybe enough to keep outflow alive long enough for some slow development.

Satellite loop imagery (visible and RGB) indicate the disturbance continues to become slowly better organized, and is displaying improved banding features, and hot towers near the center...indicative of an organizing system.

Should this trend continue, 97L could become a Tropical Depression within the next 24-36 hours.

"The ultimate judge of your swing is the flight of the ball." - Ben Hogan
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11-03-2009, 05:00 PM
Post: #29
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
So does this thing have a chance to develop into anything? Our local mets mentioned it "affecting our weather" by Monday here in Houston/Galveston. I thought there was mention of this in another one of the Invest threads, but maybe it was talking about the stuff in the SW Carribean. It looks like it's getting whipped pretty bad by shear (what's new) right now, but is there anything saying this will develop. I know it's late, but what the hay, it's been a weird year.
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11-03-2009, 05:14 PM
Post: #30
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
I was actually talking about the blow up in the Bay of Campeche/ southern GOM not this stuff down south. That was why I started a new thread, but either way works for me.
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