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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
11-03-2009, 07:14 PM
Post: #31
ROLLTIDE Offline
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
7pm

Quote:00
ABNT20 KNHC 032342
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER
PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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11-04-2009, 06:19 AM
Post: #32
dkmac Offline
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
1AM

Quote:TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST WED NOV 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER
PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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11-04-2009, 07:06 AM
Post: #33
ROLLTIDE Offline
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
7AM

Quote:00
ABNT20 KNHC 041154
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND
HONDURAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE

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11-04-2009, 07:06 AM
Post: #34
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
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11-04-2009, 07:07 AM
Post: #35
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
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11-04-2009, 07:21 AM
Post: #36
ROLLTIDE Offline
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
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11-04-2009, 07:21 AM
Post: #37
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
[Image: 20091104.1115.goes12.x.ir1km.97LINVEST.2....100pc.jpg]
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11-04-2009, 07:23 AM
Post: #38
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
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11-04-2009, 07:24 AM
Post: #39
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
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[Image: at200997_model_intensity.gif]
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11-04-2009, 09:06 AM
Post: #40
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
Models

Quote:WHXX01 KWBC 041328
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1328 UTC WED NOV 4 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20091104 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091104 1200 091105 0000 091105 1200 091106 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 81.9W 12.1N 83.1W 12.7N 84.4W 13.3N 85.6W
BAMD 11.5N 81.9W 12.1N 82.9W 12.9N 84.0W 13.8N 85.1W
BAMM 11.5N 81.9W 12.1N 83.0W 12.7N 84.2W 13.2N 85.4W
LBAR 11.5N 81.9W 12.6N 82.9W 14.1N 84.0W 15.5N 85.0W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 38KTS 39KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 31KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091106 1200 091107 1200 091108 1200 091109 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 86.9W 15.1N 89.4W 16.4N 91.3W 17.2N 93.2W
BAMD 15.0N 86.1W 18.3N 87.7W 22.0N 88.7W 27.9N 89.7W
BAMM 13.9N 86.6W 15.5N 88.7W 17.4N 90.3W 19.4N 92.0W
LBAR 16.6N 85.8W 18.6N 85.2W 18.7N 84.1W 18.5N 83.7W
SHIP 39KTS 34KTS 31KTS 27KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 81.9W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 81.0W DIRM12 = 344DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 10.1N LONM24 = 81.1W
WNDCUR = 30KTS 35KTS 38KTS 39KTS
DSHP 30KTS RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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