HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds

[seaswirl]

ROLLTIDE Wrote:So if we get 20+ storms I can retire ?

NO!!!!

[ROLLTIDE]

10AM

Quote:summary of 1000 am CDT...1500 UTC...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...23.1n 100.3w
about 165 mi...265 km WSW of La Pesca Mexico
about 150 mi...245 km E of zacatecas Mexico
maximum sustained winds...50 mph...85 km/hr
present movement...W or 260 degrees at 13 mph...20 km/hr
minimum central pressure...985 mb...29.09 inches

[ROLLTIDE]

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Quote:BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1001 AM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN ARANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT

* AT 1001 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PALM
HARBOR...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF ROCKPORT...MOVING WEST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL EASTERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY...

[ROLLTIDE]

Jeff Masters

Quote:Hurricane Alex, the strongest June hurricane in 44 years, is Tropical Storm Alex, thanks to passage over the rugged terrain of Mexico. Alex made landfall at 9pm CDT last night, 110 miles south of Brownsville, Texas, as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Alex was the strongest June hurricane since Hurricane Alma of 1966, which had 125 mph winds as it skirted the west coast of Florida. Brownsville long-range radar shows that Alex's heavy rains continue to pound the Texas/Mexico border region, and satellite estimates of rainfall (Figure 1) show that some of Alex's spiral bands dumped rains in excess of five inches today, in addition to the 5+ inches that fell yesterday. The Brownsville airport received 6.46" of rain as of 8am CDT today from Alex. Alex is being blamed for at least thirteen deaths in Central America and Mexico due to flooding, though none of these deaths occurred in the region where the storm made landfall. Alex spawned two tornadoes that hit South Texas, and there were at least four other reports of tornado funnel clouds that did not touch ground. Alex may continue to spawn isolated tornadoes today over South Texas and northern Mexico.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall so far today for Alex.


Figure 2. Snapshot of the Brownsville long-range radar showing Hurricane Alex at landfall at 8pm CDT Wednesday June 30, 2010.


Figure 3. Alex nearing landfall in northeastern Mexico at 12:10 CDT June 30, 2010, as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite. Image credit: NASA.

Storm Surge
Alex's maximum storm surge occurred along a 50-mile stretch of the Mexican coast centered about 75 miles south of Brownsville, Texas. The National Hurricane Center Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model predicted that the maximum water depth at the coast reached about 5 - 6 feet above ground level (Figure 3.) A storm surge of 1 - 2 feet was predicted by SLOSH for the Brownsville, Texas region. A storm surge of about 2 feet was observed in South Texas at the South Padre Island Coast Guard Station and Port Isabel.


Figure 4. Hurricane Alex's Maximum Water Depth (storm tide minus the elevation of the land it is passing over) computed using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. The maximum surge occurred to the right of where Alex's core made landfall, over a sparsely populated marshy area. This "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of five feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is ten feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. For more information on storm surge, consult our detailed storm surge pages.

Alex in historical context
Alex is the first June hurricane since Hurricane Allison of 1995. There have been only eleven hurricanes in May or June since 1945; only four of these were major Category 3 or higher storms.

Alex's bizarre behavior
Alex had several rather remarkable features I've never seen in a hurricane. Firstly, it underwent an eyewall replacement cycle as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Usually, we don't see the inner eyewall collapse and an eyewall replacement cycle occur until a hurricane reaches Category 3 strength. I've seen it happen on occasion to a Category 2 storm, but never a Category 1. Secondly, after Alex's inner 9-mile diameter eyewall collapsed at 10am EDT yesterday morning, an outer spiral band began to become the new eyewall. Winds in this outer spiral band/new eywall increased as the day progressed, as typically happens in an eyewall replacement cycle. However, part way through that process, Alex suddenly reversed course, and was able to build a small inner eyewall with a 12-mile diameter that was completed by landfall. I've never seen a hurricane change its mind in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle and build an inner eyewall so fast. Finally, Alex had an unusually weak winds, considering how low the pressure was. The pressure was more typical of a hurricane one Saffir-Simpson category stronger than what the surface winds suggested.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The latest run of the NOGAPS model predicts the formation of a tropical depression the Western Caribbean on Tuesday. None of the other models is showing tropical development worthy of concern over the coming seven days.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Alex is continuing to generate very rough conditions over the Deepwater Horizon blowout location, with 5 - 9 foot waves and 3 - 4 foot swells. The wind and seas will gradually subside today, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting currents induced by Alex's strong winds will push oil to many protected bays and estuaries that haven't seen oil yet. The latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana show oil will also move westward along the central Louisiana coast towards the Texas border. Winds will decrease to 5 - 15 knots Friday through Tuesday but remain mostly out of the southeast, keeping the pressure on the regions of co

[mom2grls72]

ROLLTIDE Wrote:Jeff Masters

Wow..that is so interesting..This storm was certainly one of the most interesting to watch since I have been obsessed with storms. Seeing history made is something you dont see every day. YEEE..waiting for the next one!!

[ROLLTIDE]

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Quote:BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
243 PM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BROOKS COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 243 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FALFURRIAS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FALFURRIAS.

[grammie]

NOLAres Wrote:according to the CMC it looks like TS Allison again for Houston

It's raining cats and dogs and bunnies and frogs here in Houston. Has been raining all day with no end in sight. ARGH!

[ROLLTIDE]

...

Quote:BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
304 PM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN DUVAL COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 302 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ROSITA...OR
11 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FREER...

[suzyq]

grammie Wrote:It's raining cats and dogs and bunnies and frogs here in Houston. Has been raining all day with no end in sight. ARGH!

looks like it's gonna get worse.

[SaltwaterServr]

ROLLTIDE Wrote:So if we get 20+ storms I can retire ?

If we get that many storms, you'll probably be able to sell the site for a pretty penny and contribute to your retirement.

Does that count?