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HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds
06-21-2010, 09:43 AM
Post: #21
HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds
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06-21-2010, 09:44 AM
Post: #22
HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds
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06-21-2010, 09:47 AM
Post: #23
HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds
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06-21-2010, 09:55 AM
Post: #24
HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds
Dr. Masters blogpost this morning:

Quote:Updated: 9:50 AM CDT on June 21, 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The only negative would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

[Image: jun21_sat.jpg]

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

[Image: shear_fct_jun21.png]

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.



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06-21-2010, 10:03 AM
Post: #25
HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds
12Z Nam 84 HRS

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06-21-2010, 10:04 AM
Post: #26
HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds
Recon

Quote:000
NOUS42 KNHC 211330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT MON 21 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-021

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 16.ON 77.0W AT 23/1800Z.

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06-21-2010, 10:05 AM
Post: #27
HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds
12Z EURO.... Remember that the Euro didn't do very well last season

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06-21-2010, 10:13 AM
Post: #28
HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds
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06-21-2010, 10:15 AM
Post: #29
HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds
Recon update

Quote:NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 21 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-021

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 16.ON 77.0W AT 23/1800Z.

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06-21-2010, 10:28 AM
Post: #30
HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds
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Thanks to everybody who is digging and hitting stumble upon under this thread Smile

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