HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds

[FrenchQuarterGuy]

This one is very promising... just looking at the visible loop right now (Noon Monday), it is blowing up and a little rotation is kicking up. It could become a monster.

It will be a monster regardless due to the BP mess.

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

2pm

Quote:000
ABNT20 KNHC 211748
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

#5
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION...THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WAVE
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...PUERTO
RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

[MiamiHurricane80]

ROLLTIDE Wrote:

It seems like Invest 93L has grown in size in the last 6 hours. Not liking the potential outcomes with this one.

[ROLLTIDE]

models

Quote:TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1310 UTC MON JUN 21 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100621 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100621 1200 100622 0000 100622 1200 100623 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 67.2W 13.7N 69.3W 14.4N 71.6W 15.2N 73.9W
BAMD 13.0N 67.2W 13.8N 69.3W 14.5N 71.5W 15.3N 73.7W
BAMM 13.0N 67.2W 13.6N 69.4W 14.3N 71.9W 15.1N 74.3W
LBAR 13.0N 67.2W 14.0N 69.6W 15.2N 72.2W 16.2N 74.7W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100623 1200 100624 1200 100625 1200 100626 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 76.1W 16.8N 80.1W 17.8N 83.3W 19.1N 85.7W
BAMD 15.9N 75.7W 16.7N 78.9W 17.6N 81.7W 18.6N 84.1W
BAMM 15.7N 76.6W 16.6N 80.3W 17.4N 83.1W 18.5N 85.4W
LBAR 16.9N 77.1W 18.0N 81.1W 19.7N 84.0W 22.2N 85.5W
SHIP 56KTS 70KTS 80KTS 88KTS
DSHP 56KTS 70KTS 80KTS 88KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 67.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 64.5W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 60.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[ticka1]

READY SET ACTION.....when 93L gets a LLC - GAME ON!

[ROLLTIDE]