HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds

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100 kts ?

Quote:290
WHXX01 KWBC 211846
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1846 UTC MON JUN 21 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100621 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100621 1800 100622 0600 100622 1800 100623 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 67.8W 14.2N 69.9W 15.1N 72.2W 15.9N 74.3W
BAMD 13.5N 67.8W 14.4N 70.0W 15.4N 72.2W 16.1N 74.2W
BAMM 13.5N 67.8W 14.2N 70.0W 15.1N 72.3W 15.8N 74.5W
LBAR 13.5N 67.8W 14.5N 69.8W 15.7N 72.2W 16.6N 74.5W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100623 1800 100624 1800 100625 1800 100626 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 76.6W 17.8N 80.6W 19.1N 84.0W 20.3N 87.0W
BAMD 16.6N 76.0W 17.3N 79.3W 18.1N 82.2W 18.9N 84.6W
BAMM 16.4N 76.6W 17.3N 80.2W 18.3N 83.3W 19.2N 86.0W
LBAR 17.4N 76.6W 18.3N 80.5W 20.3N 83.7W 22.4N 85.7W
SHIP 61KTS 76KTS 89KTS 100KTS
DSHP 61KTS 76KTS 89KTS 100KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 67.8W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 65.9W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 63.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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[ROLLTIDE]

From Jeff Lindner

Quote:Strong tropical wave over the east-central Caribbean Sea is becoming better organized.

Visible satellite images show numerous developing convective clusters, but as of yet no well defined surface circulation. Moist envelop surrounds this system of interest and strong shear in the Caribbean will be weakening over the next 24-48 hours allowing the development of favorable upper air conditions. NHC has risen the threat of TX development in the next 48 hours into the 30-50%. Conditions only get better aloft and at the surface as the system heads for the western Caribbean Sea by the end of the week.

Intensity guidance is very aggressive with this system, with SHIPS taking it well into a hurricane by days 4 and 5 which is very aggressive for a June tropical system…but it has happened before. Gulf water temperatures are now running in the low to mid 80’s and are more than warm enough to support a tropical cyclone. Models are forecasting the development of an anticyclone aloft over the system as it enters the Gulf, so conditions do look ripe for intensification.

Model guidance remains inconsistent on the potential track with various possibilities playing out. CMC and EURO are strongest and show a weakness in the southern US ridge over the central Gulf states allowing the system to gradually recurve into the eastern Gulf coast. The GFS is still showing no development at all…which is really strange for this model along with the UKMET. The NOGAPS shows a weaker system sliding WNW into the western Gulf of Mexico. Way too early to tell either way with anything.

Recon aircraft is tasked to investigate if needed on Wednesday

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[ROLLTIDE]

Euro is much weaker this run and closer to Texas


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[cfred]

Yikes! Looks like it's getting it's act together already.

[simeon9benjamin]

This just in BP close the dam oil leak a cane is coming soon you know. STFU

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[FrenchQuarterGuy]

This thing is blowing up today!! It's Beautiful... in a sick way. ha
I love how the meteorologist on TWC are saying "no imminent threat". What?!?

Seriously people. With this mess in the Gulf ( I'm in the French Quarter --hence my SN), the media should be all over this NOW. It IS a threat!