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HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds
06-21-2010, 07:51 AM
Post: #1
Her-icane Offline
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HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds
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06-21-2010, 07:53 AM
Post: #2
Her-icane Offline
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HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds
Track Alex on radar


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06-21-2010, 08:11 AM
Post: #3
ROLLTIDE Offline
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HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds
Is this not whats left of 92L?



BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201006211308
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2010, DB, O, 2010062112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932010
AL, 93, 2010062018, , BEST, 0, 123N, 632W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010062100, , BEST, 0, 125N, 645W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010062106, , BEST, 0, 128N, 659W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010062112, , BEST, 0, 130N, 672W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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06-21-2010, 08:31 AM
Post: #4
Mooreweather Offline
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HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds
Apologies for the lack of information, but I just checked out Weather Underground, and they have an Invest 93. Perhaps this is indeed a new area of weather to watch...:energetic
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06-21-2010, 08:34 AM
Post: #5
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HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds
ROLLTIDE Wrote:Is this not whats left of 92L?

Hey Roll, thought the same thing myself at first, but this appears to currently be down along Venezuela - as Crown says "It appears that this development will come from the combination of an area of disturbed weather in Venezuela and the tropical wave that is now located in the eastern Caribbean. It also appears that what is left of Invest 92-L will help to set up this possibility by lowering air pressures in the western Caribbean." To my untrained eye, looking at the CIMSS, it appears to be quite east and south of where I believe 92L currently is bringing rain....
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06-21-2010, 08:36 AM
Post: #6
dkmac Offline
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HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds
From WU:

Quote:Tracking Info For Invest 93



Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
12 GMT 06/21/10 13.0N 67.2W 25 1010 Invest

Invest 93
Wind: 30 MPH — Location: 13.0 67.2W — Movement: W
This area of disturbed weather has the potential for tropical development.
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06-21-2010, 08:37 AM
Post: #7
ROLLTIDE Offline
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HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds
93L

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06-21-2010, 08:39 AM
Post: #8
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HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds
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06-21-2010, 08:40 AM
Post: #9
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HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds
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06-21-2010, 08:45 AM
Post: #10
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HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds
.....

Quote: * ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL932010 06/21/10 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 46 56 65 70 76 80 84 88
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 46 56 65 70 76 80 84 88
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 41 49 59 70 80 90 96

SHEAR (KT) 7 7 12 9 5 7 7 5 8 4 2 6 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -4 -6 -3 -4 -2 -2 -4 -4 -3 -5 -4
SHEAR DIR 212 168 172 185 266 183 285 263 301 213 291 229 348
SST © 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6
POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 149 149 149 150 151 152 154 155 159 160
ADJ. POT. INT. 151 150 151 149 148 147 146 145 143 144 145 147 146
200 MB T © -53.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0
TH_E DEV © 7 7 6 6 6 8 8 10 10 12 10 12 10
700-500 MB RH 83 84 85 82 81 80 78 74 72 68 67 64 64
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 67 84 82 85 80 80 67 71 65 69 57 52 26
200 MB DIV 83 78 83 84 80 79 58 44 23 7 -11 -3 3
LAND (KM) 238 207 178 195 201 326 231 192 276 265 212 241 228
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.3 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.4 18.0 18.5
LONG(DEG W) 67.2 68.3 69.4 70.7 71.9 74.3 76.6 78.6 80.3 81.7 83.1 84.3 85.4
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 12 12 11 9 7 7 7 6 5
HEAT CONTENT 67 56 64 76 76 70 82 113 104 83 91 87 84

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 34. 36. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 21. 31. 40. 45. 51. 55. 59. 63.

** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 06/21/10 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 06/21/10 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL932010 INVEST 06/21/2010 00 UTC **
TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model)
CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY
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