HURRICANE ALEX Makes landfall in MX with 105 mph winds

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Check out the ridge

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Lake Charles NWS

Quote:LONG TERM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EURO. PREFERRED THE GFS WHICH ONLY BRINGS
BENIGN WAVES IN THE EASTERLIES INTO THE AREA. THE EURO TAKES A
MORE REMARKABLE AND FRANKLY SCARY SOLUTION OF DEVELOPING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND THE STRAITS OF YUCATAN AND HURLING IT
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AROUND THE END OF THE MONTH. A BIT
DISQUIETING CONSIDERING OUR OILY CHANLLENGES TO THE EAST AND THIS
IS THE SECOND DAY THAT THIS MODEL HAS PINGED ON THIS. LOOKS LIKE
THE GFS HAS A MORE PLEASANTLY CONSERVATIVE TREND ON THE EARLY
TROPICAL SEASON. AT ANY RATE...EXTREME SOLUTIONS IN THE MODEL
WORLD ARE OUTLIERS AND ARE USUALLY WRONG.

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[dkmac]

Blogpost by StormW at WU:

Quote:Good day!

Whoever did something to Mother Natures Cornflakes...please apologize immediately!!

An area of disturbed weather in the eastern Caribbean has been designated INVEST 93L this morning. I began analyzing this feature last night, and recent satellite loop imagery indicates the area of thunderstorms is becoming more concentrated.



This disturbance is currently moving north of due west at around 10-15 mph. I expect this motion or a WNW motion to continue for the next 12-18 hours, with a turn more toward the NW after. Bear in mind, the steering forecast depicted by model guidance should not be considered accurate at the moment, and I will not commit at this time to a long or medium range track forecast, until we actually have development of a solid LLC, and the models have a chance to work with it. However, based on the current steering layers forecast maps, what I have just mentioned is the most accurate scenario at the moment. Again, I've seen steering change in as little as 72 hours. I will say however, that initial model guidance appears to have a good overall initial "track", but may be a little left on the current solution.



Based on the current wind shear analysis map from CIMSS, the upper level pattern has changed dramatically over the past 48 hours, with conditions now more conducive for tropical development.



The current run of the GFS forecast shear map indicates an upper level anticyclone to develop over almost the entire Caribbean Sea, with very light upper level winds, for the next 5 days. Given the possible track of this system, 93L should be able to take full advantage of the otuflow that will be provided with this upper level anticyclone, and should be in an area of high TCHP in a few days. IF NOTHING CHANGES, given the forecast setup, I will not rule out the possibility of the seasons first Major Hurricane. Even if this doesn't pan out, Global Models have been consistent with developing a hurricane, and the current SHIPS intensity model implies at least Category 2 strength.





Buoy 42059 does not indicate falling surface pressures at this time, however, should 93L continue to become better organized, and upper level conditions improve as forecast, this could change.

This will remain to be seen, however, I see NOTHING at the moment that would preclude further steady development of this system. Given the parameters mentioned, the good possibility exists of a Tropical Depression within the next 48 hours.

Given the signals this season, the following is given as a precaution:

For USCG MLCLANT/LANTAREA: I recommend notifying D7;D8 OPS to monitor this situation closely during the next 72 hours. I further recommend, given the initial uncertainty of a good forecast track, that any floating units west of this system, consider evasive action. Although the Navy has not requested the following, I strongly recommend any floating units within 300nm of this system, provide a 3 hourly wx synopsis.

Residents along the Gulf Coast from Texas to South Florida should monitor the progress of 93L for any significant changes during the next 72 hours.

Elsewhere, an area of disturbed weather near 55W will be monitored for any significant changes during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through Tuesday.

"Storm"

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93L

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...r=AL932010

[Squirrelmonkey]

here we go..........