TD Bonnie 4pm last advisory issued

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...

Quote:WHXX01 KWBC 191407
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1407 UTC MON JUL 19 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100719 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100719 1200 100720 0000 100720 1200 100721 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 65.0W 20.2N 68.6W 21.3N 72.5W 22.4N 75.7W
BAMD 19.2N 65.0W 19.8N 66.8W 20.3N 68.6W 20.7N 70.3W
BAMM 19.2N 65.0W 19.9N 67.4W 20.3N 69.8W 20.7N 72.1W
LBAR 19.2N 65.0W 20.1N 67.7W 20.8N 70.7W 21.5N 73.6W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100721 1200 100722 1200 100723 1200 100724 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.0N 78.9W 24.1N 85.4W 25.6N 91.4W 27.7N 96.1W
BAMD 20.8N 71.9W 21.2N 74.9W 21.9N 78.1W 23.0N 81.8W
BAMM 20.6N 74.4W 20.2N 78.8W 20.4N 82.6W 21.2N 85.9W
LBAR 22.1N 76.6W 23.2N 82.8W 24.7N 88.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 42KTS 45KTS 56KTS 66KTS
DSHP 42KTS 45KTS 56KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 65.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 18.5N LONM12 = 61.4W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 17.4N LONM24 = 58.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

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HPC

Quote:TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
637 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. THE MODELS
SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...IN THIS PROCESS GRADUALLY DISPLACING A TUTT
LOW THAT MEANDERS TO THE NORTH. THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY
DEEP...REFLECTING AT MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
FEATURE...IN INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ AND PERTURBATIONS IN THE
LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES...FAVORS/SUSTAINS A WET/MOIST PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...WITH PWS OF 50-70MM DOMINATING
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN ALOFT IS TO CHANGE...THE MOISTURE
IS TO PERSIST UNTIL THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TUTT...IN THE
FORM OF AN INVERTED TROUGH...IS TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATER THIS WEEK. CONVERGENCE TO THE WEST OF THE INBOUND TUTT IS TO
PROVIDE MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINS. MODELS
SEEM TO COINCIDE THAT MOST ACTIVE/INTENSE CONVECTION IS TO
CONTINUE BUILDING THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
INTENSE/ACTIVE PATTERN DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY
TO THURSDAY.

THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MODELS SHOW FAVORABLE MJO CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THE MORE RELIABLE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM
INDICATES THAT BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WE ARE TO TRANSITION
TO A WEAK CONVERGENT/NEUTRAL PATTERN...WHICH IS TO LAST FOR TEN
DAYS...AND TRANSITIONING AGAIN TO A DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT BY THE
FIRST WEEK IN AUGUST.

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12Z model runs

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