TD Bonnie 4pm last advisory issued

[dkmac]

Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC:

Quote:TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA...ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION IN THIS AREA AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[dkmac]

8PM

Quote:TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA...ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

2. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION IN THIS AREA AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[ROLLTIDE]

[FrenchQuarterGuy]

Interesting... I have something to look forward to this week now

[dkmac]

NHC 8PM Discussion:

Quote:TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 21W S OF
20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS
EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A
SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-18N BETWEEN 14W-23W...AND SW OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 24W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 61W S OF
19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE
WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ALSO ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE SEEN IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 54W-67W. GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W S OF 20N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE LIES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS ACROSS CENTRAL THE CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN
70W-80W AFFECTING AREAS S OF WESTERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND
EASTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR
23N82W TO EAST HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. WAVE
LIES EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE
WRN CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC
ROTATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-25N BETWEEN 80W-91W
INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CUBA...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N23W 8N30W 9N40W 7N50W 8N60W.
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN
24W AND 30W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN GENERATING THE CONVECTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW OVER THE
FAR SW BASIN EXTENDING WITHIN 40 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO
FROM 23N96W TO 18N95W...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N W OF 94W. AT THIS POINT...MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN TRANSFERRED ALOFT
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI WITHIN 150 NM OFFSHORE WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS. A BROADER AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE/CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS STARTING TO ENTER THE SE GULF THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WESTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA INCLUDING THE STRAITS...GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N E OF 88W. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WILL CONTINUE UNDER MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE ESE FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES
OF TROPICAL WAVES. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 75W
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS NICARAGUA TO NRN
COLOMBIA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF PUERTO RICO IS
PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BASIN AS THE TROPICAL WAVES PROGRESS WESTWARD BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL WAVES IN THE WRN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WEST ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA STRAITS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...DUE
TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR 25N66W ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE
RIDGING AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N55W AND A 1028 MB HIGH E
OF THE AZORES NEAR 38W22N. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACCOMPANIED
BY DUST COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
IN THIS REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA

[hurricaneguy]

Invest 97L up

[dkmac]

2AM

Quote:TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN OVER THIS AREA...AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A MORE CONCENTRATED JUST NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISTURBANCE COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
HAITI...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

2. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF JAMAICA...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS
OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[ROLLTIDE]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007190904
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2010, DB, O, 2010071906, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972010
AL, 97, 2010071806, , BEST, 0, 167N, 567W, 20, 1016, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071812, , BEST, 0, 174N, 586W, 20, 1016, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071818, , BEST, 0, 181N, 601W, 20, 1015, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071900, , BEST, 0, 187N, 613W, 20, 1015, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071906, , BEST, 0, 191N, 624W, 25, 1014, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[ROLLTIDE]

WHXX01 KWBC 190909
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0909 UTC MON JUL 19 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100719 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100719 0600 100719 1800 100720 0600 100720 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.1N 62.4W 20.3N 65.9W 21.3N 69.3W 22.5N 72.7W
BAMD 19.1N 62.4W 20.1N 64.5W 21.0N 66.2W 21.6N 67.9W
BAMM 19.1N 62.4W 20.1N 65.1W 20.7N 67.6W 21.3N 70.1W
LBAR 19.1N 62.4W 19.9N 64.6W 20.6N 67.1W 21.3N 69.8W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100721 0600 100722 0600 100723 0600 100724 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.4N 75.6W 24.4N 81.6W 25.3N 87.4W 26.5N 92.3W
BAMD 22.1N 69.3W 22.8N 72.1W 23.8N 75.2W 24.5N 79.8W
BAMM 21.5N 72.3W 21.5N 76.8W 21.8N 80.7W 22.9N 84.3W
LBAR 21.9N 72.7W 22.8N 78.8W 24.0N 83.8W 24.6N 85.9W
SHIP 39KTS 46KTS 56KTS 64KTS
DSHP 39KTS 46KTS 41KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.1N LONCUR = 62.4W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 18.1N LONM12 = 60.1W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 16.7N LONM24 = 56.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

This is smaller than original. Click this bar to view the full image. The original is 800x600.

[dkmac]

From Rob Lightbown:

Quote:Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Monday, July 19, 2010 655 am EDT/555 am CDT

Discussion
There is quite a bit to discuss this morning, so let’s get right into it!!:

Invest 97-L – Located Near The Northern Leeward Islands:
Item number 1 on my plate this morning is a tropical wave that has just been designated Invest 97-L. This tropical wave was located over the northern Leeward Islands this morning and is currently tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 15 mph. This particular system has made it through the other side of the Saharan Air Layer, however, wind shear values over it right now are running at 20+ knots and this is unfavorable for development in the near term. This system is currently forecast to approach south Florida later this week where there may be some room for development as shear values may drop off then.

The convection that is currently being seen right now can be attributed to a trough of low pressure located to the west of Invest 97-L. As I already mentioned, shear over this system will prevent any type of development from today through probably Wednesday. Looking at the model guidance, the NAM model, as always, forecasts this system to really ramp up as it gets into the Bahamas on Thursday. The GFS model only shows a tropical wave reflection and never develops this system into a tropical cyclone. The European model also forecasts no development from this feature, as does the Canadian model.

In my opinion, I expect no development over at least the next 2 to 3 days due to unfavorable shear. Once 97-L is on the other side of the trough of low pressure, development may become more likely, which at that time it will be located near the central and southeast Bahamas. At this point, I give Invest 97-L a very low chance of development from today through Wednesday and a moderate chance of development from Wednesday night and beyond.

This system, however, will produce heavy and widespread showers and thunderstorms across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and the Turks and Caicos Islands over the next 2 to 3 days. These showers and thunderstorms will likely contain heavy rainfall, gusty winds and rough seas.

Western And Central Caribbean Disturbance:
I am also keeping a close eye on a tropical wave that is located over the central and western Caribbean. This particular tropical wave is producing showers and thunderstorms across much of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Recent satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity has increased a little overnight south of Jamaica and this area will have to be monitored closely today for signs of a surface circulation. It should be noted that the area of slightly increased convection is near an area of very low shear. So, one would assume development would be likely in this area right?? Not so quick!

An analysis of 850 millibar vorticity indicates that vorticity is not very concentrated in the area of convection, which indicates that there is no real organized area of low level circulation in this area. So, even though there is a slight increase in convection south of Jamaica, the lack of vorticity at the low levels indicates that development will be very slow to occur. At this point, I think development into a tropical depression or tropical storm is still at least two days away and probably will wait until it is in the Bay of Campeche later Wednesday and Thursday.

I think once we get past Wednesday, development chances will increase. The reason for this thinking is that if one looks at the upper level analysis of the western Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, you will see a bulging upper level high pressure system that is located over Florida, western Cuba, and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Over the next few days, I expect the upper level low pressure system over the southwestern Atlantic to dig southward and in turn a outflow pattern will develop over the western Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico causing more favorable conditions for slow development. Both the GFS and European models are forecasting favorable environmental conditions over this system within the next two days, however, they both do not develop it into a tropical cyclone. It should be noted that in many cases, slow development is often not caught by the global models.

So, it is my opinion that there is a very low chance of development from today through Wednesday and a moderate chance of development from Wednesday night and beyond. I think there is a pretty good chance of this system becoming something more substantial later this week once it is in the Bay of Campeche.

African Tropical Waves:
I am also keeping a close eye on the robust tropical waves that are tracking off of the coast of Africa. The latest tropical wave clearly shows a cyclonic circulation, however, convection seems to be waning likely due to dry, stable air in the vicinity. It should be noted that this tropical wave is fairly well organized and has a shot at becoming a tropical depression later down the road as environmental conditions appear fairly conductive to development this week. I give this tropical wave a low chance of development from today through Wednesday and a low to moderate chance of development from Thursday and beyond.

In conclusion, it appears that this week will likely be very active in terms of areas of interest to watch across the entire Atlantic Basin. The Madden Julian Oscillation is currently in a favorable phase across the Atlantic Basin. This upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will eventually activate the African wave train and I do think that we will have Bonnie before the end of the month.