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Tropical Weather Discussion
07-25-2010, 05:31 AM
Post: #1
Tropical Weather Discussion
From Rob Lightbown:

Quote:Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Saturday, July 24, 2010 12 pm EDT/11 am CDT

Discussion
Tropical Storm Bonnie:
Surprisingly, advisories are still being issued on Bonnie as of 11 am Eastern/10 am Central Time this morning. I don’t quite agree with this and think that advisories could have been discontinued last night on this system. I don’t often disagree with the National Hurricane Center, but this is one time I do disagree. Bonnie is basically a swirl of low clouds with a few thunderstorms to the northwest and surface pressures are as high as 1014 millibars and rising!! So, yes I do think advisories could’ve been discontinued. The swirl of clouds will track inland around midnight tonight and will quickly dissipate on Sunday.

I want to emphasize that this will basically be a non-event, except for some heavy rainfall along the southeast Louisiana and Mississippi coasts with up to 1 to 2 inches of rain expected this afternoon and tonight.

That’s about all I have on Bonnie. Now, let’s see what else may be coming in the next few weeks and also the rest of the hurricane season.

Elsewhere in the Tropical Atlantic:
I am monitoring an area of disturbed weather that is located in the vicinity of Jamaica. Environmental conditions aren’t exactly favorable for development; however, it will be watched for possible trouble once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico in a few days. I give this system a very low chance of developing, but it will be monitored anyways.

Things in the eastern Atlantic will need to be monitored very closely as it may quickly become busy out there as early as later next week into the following week. The GFS Parallel model (which will become operational on July 27th and has done pretty well in the forecasting of tropical cyclone formation, so I’m looking forward to it becoming operational) and also the latest European model are insistent and persistent in forming one to perhaps two tropical cyclones in the eastern Atlantic as early as next weekend and then the GFS Parallel model forecasts that one of these systems will affect the Lesser Antilles around August 5th and then affect the southeastern Bahamas around August 8th or 9th. This type of scenario, even though it is more than two weeks away, is quite plausible and tropical waves in the eastern Atlantic need to be monitored closely now.

One other area that should be watched late next week into next weekend will be in an area between Bermuda and just off of the east coast of Florida as a frontal system moving offshore becomes stationary and sits in this area. This type of scenario, a stationary front underneath a high pressure system sometimes spawns tropical cyclones and this is something to watch for after about Friday of next week through all of next weekend. Right now, I give a low chance of this actually happening, but it will be watched for anyways.

Some Additional Thoughts and Info:
First thing, I am extremely happy that the upper level low pressure system was to the west of Bonnie all along and imparted the type of shear that essentially killed the storm. If conditions had been favorable, south Florida would’ve likely had a major hurricane yesterday and the northern Gulf Coast would’ve been preparing for a major hurricane as well. So, the upper level low was a HUGE blessing!!

Bonnie also gave us here at Crown Weather Services a really good test run on our systems and procedures. We ran into some technical issues on Thursday morning and this looks to be now resolved permanently; let me explain: We had some major server overload issues with Alex that we thought could be resolved by increasing the bandwidth during storms. We found out on Thursday that even with the increased bandwidth we were still being overloaded and this brought the site down on Thursday morning. At one point on Thursday morning, we were clocking between 80 and 100 page views per minute!!

So, us here at Crown Weather Services and the awesome folks at Old City Web Services came to the conclusion it was time that Crown Weather Services be put on its own server. So, now we are on our own server and we have the option of ramping up the bandwidth when things get busy. So, we are hoping and praying that this FINALLY solves the issue of the site going down during landfalling storms. Even though this is going to be very expensive for Meg and I, our goal is and always has been to provide you both accurate and timely weather information and to be your one stop weather information source when you need it without it going down.

My Thoughts On The Rest Of The Hurricane Season:
Since we are headed into late July and eventually August, I wanted to give you my thoughts on the rest of the hurricane season. As of today, we have had three tropical depressions, two of which became tropical storm and one, Alex, became a hurricane. There are two years now that are fairly analogous to this hurricane season, 1998 and to a lesser extent 2004:

The first and my main pick is 1998. In 1998, we transitioned from an El Nino to a La Nina, which is very similar to this season. One thing to point out is that in 1998, the first named storm did not occur until July 27th with the second named storm occurring on August 19th. From the period of August 19th and October 10th, there were 11 named storms, 8 of those becoming hurricanes and 2 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes. Also, the 1998 hurricane season ran late with a named storm in late November and early December. In all, the 1998 hurricane season produced 14 named storms, 10 of those becoming hurricanes and 3 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes.

Now, my other pick and it less analogous is 2004. The 2004 hurricane season did not kick off until July 31st with the first named storm. Then between July 31st and October 11th, there were 14 named storms, 9 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 6 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes. The 2004 hurricane season, much like 1998, ran late with a named storm in late November and early December. In all, the 2004 hurricane season produced 15 named storms, 9 of those becoming hurricanes and 6 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes.

What can one take away from this?? Basically, the hurricane season hasn’t even begun to get going!! I have both heard and read on the net that this season is a bust; there’s been a lot of hand wringing and “season cancel” remarks. I’m here to tell you to spend this weekend going over your hurricane prep kit and if you need supplies and can afford it, go to your local supermarket, your local Target, Wal-Mart or Lowe’s and purchase what you need.

If this season is anything close to 1998 or 2004, things should basically turn on overnight. So, my feeling is that we will have a barrage of named storms probably starting somewhere between July 30th and August 15th and then continuing until about October 15th. During this timeframe, I expect 13 named storms, 9 of those becoming hurricanes and 4 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes. In addition, I strongly believe that this season will run late (Through November and possibly into early December) with 2 additional named storms with 1 of those storms becoming a hurricane.

In all, I expect the 2010 hurricane season to end with 17 named storms, 11 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 4 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes.

As for threat areas the rest of this season: I still think eastern North Carolina, south Florida and the northwestern Bahamas, the entire northern and western Gulf coast (from Texas to the Florida Panhandle), the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands and the entire northwestern Caribbean, including the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba and the Cayman Islands. Now, this does not mean that other areas of the coast are not at risk this season; it just means that I think these particular areas are at higher risk this year.

So, I think I’ve babbled on enough for this morning. I hope everyone has a nice weekend and I look forward to writing again on Monday morning.

"The ultimate judge of your swing is the flight of the ball." - Ben Hogan
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