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EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
08-07-2010, 06:07 AM
Post: #11
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
KMOB NWS

Quote:Long term...(tuesday through friday)...expecting a drying trend in
the forecast area with dangerous heat indices possibly returning to
the region early next week. The European model (ecmwf) has dropped the tropical wave
we saw from the last run and the GFS is picking one up forming off
the old front by midweek and that does show it in the northeast Gulf.
Therefore we are staying with the MOS probability of precipitation. 77/blowing dust

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08-07-2010, 06:12 AM
Post: #12
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
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08-07-2010, 01:28 PM
Post: #13
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
12z UKMET

At 120hrs
[Image: 12zukmet500mbHGHTNA120.gif]

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08-07-2010, 01:40 PM
Post: #14
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
[Image: nam_pcp_084s.gif]





[Image: gfs_ten_096m.gif]

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08-08-2010, 06:53 AM (This post was last modified: 08-08-2010 06:53 AM by dkmac.)
Post: #15
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
From N.O. NWS this morning:

Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
248 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2010

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND MONDAY...A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN MISSOURI SOUTH THROUGH LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM 3 TO
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PROMPTING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AND
HEAT ADVISORY. SEASONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. 00Z LIX SOUNDING IS MEASURED PWAT AT 2.24 INCHES...LI
AT -9.4.1...6613 J/KG CAPE...AN UPTICK IN INSTABILITY FROM YESTERDAY
AND MORE THAN AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

MODELING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AN INVERTED TROUGH ALOFT WITH A BROAD
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON LATER
TODAY OR TOMORROW THAT MOVES WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON TUESDAY THEN TRACKS NORTHWEST TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. SHOULD THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP AS CURRENT MODELING SUGGESTS...IT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR SIGNS OF FURTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. BENNETT

.LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK/DEPTH OF UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM WHICH IS
DEEPER AND FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THEY ARE ALSO
SHOWING A BETTER SFC REFLECTION WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO
THE ERN GULF WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING BY TUE MORNING. FOLLOWED
CLOSER TO THE 00Z GFS FOR THE TUE THROUGH FRI TIMEFRAME WHICH
CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE 00Z ECMWF RUN...WITH THE LOW APPROACHING
THE SRN LA COAST THU MORNING. BASED ON THIS TRACK...RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST BEGINNING WED WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...LEFT CHC POPS IN
THE FCST DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE LOW ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE
NUMBERS INCREASE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM`S DEVELOPMENT
BECOMES A LITTLE CLEARER.
LIKEWISE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON TUE/WED
EXPECTED TO MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER/SHOWER ACTIVITY. 87

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08-08-2010, 07:02 AM
Post: #16
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
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08-08-2010, 07:07 AM
Post: #17
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
KMOB

Quote:ONDAY NIGHT WOULD BE A HARBINGER OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER. A
DECREASE OF WATER VAPOR AVERAGES FROM 1000-500 MB IS EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE OVER THE AREA AS CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS OVER THE OLD FRONT IN
THE NE GMEX AND THE RESULTANT LOW MOVES WEST. WE NOTE THAT THESE
TYPES OF LOWS CAN SOMETIMES ACHIEVE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE SOUTHWARD DRIFTING FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A
DEEP LAYER OF AVAILABLE WATER VAPOR, RH BEING BETWEEN 60 AND 70
PERCENT, OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF DURING THE MORNINGS, WITH SUNLIGHT
PROVIDING THE INSTABILITY OVER LAND TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF, RELATIVELY DRY AIR FROM
THE PIEDMONT REGION WILL BE DRAWN OVER THE AREA AS IT ROTATES AROUND
THE AREA OF CYCLOGENESIS ON TUESDAY. 77/BD

&&

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08-08-2010, 07:21 AM
Post: #18
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
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08-08-2010, 07:38 AM
Post: #19
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
Quote:"...AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON LATER
TODAY OR TOMORROW THAT MOVES WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON TUESDAY THEN TRACKS NORTHWEST TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA..."

You could take this right out of the Katrina playbook.....could be scary.

Crazy Dale
The nine scariest words in the english language: "I'm from the government and I'm here to help." -Ronald Reagan
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08-08-2010, 07:41 AM
Post: #20
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
From Rob Lightbown:

Quote:Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Sunday, August 8, 2010 820 am EDT/720 am CDT

Discussion

Potential Northern Gulf of Mexico Development This Week:
Pretty much all of the model guidance are coming on board that a trough of low pressure now stretched across the northern part of Florida will lead to the development of an area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico as early as late Monday or Monday night. This low pressure system has the potential to transform into a tropical storm as it tracks west-northwestward and northwestward during Tuesday and Wednesday and potentially making landfall on the northwestern Gulf coast on Thursday.

An analysis of all of the model guidance shows that they all pretty much agree that the surface and mid-level low pressure systems will be located near 27 North Latitude, 85.5 West Longitude on Tuesday evening. One thing to watch for over the next couple of afternoons is that some robust and widespread thunderstorm activity is likely across the Florida peninsula. The reason that this is of interest is that this will release a lot of heat into the atmosphere and likely be a catalyst for the development of low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

So, here are my thoughts: For today into much of Monday, I am not expecting any development from this area of concern as it tracks first south and then west across the Florida Peninsula reaching the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening or Monday night. I think the chances seem fairly good that this system could potentially become a tropical storm sometime between Tuesday and Thursday morning given the very warm sea surface temperatures and the fact that wind shear values will be 10 knots or less. This system, whether it is a tropical storm or not, is forecast to track inland either into the Louisiana coast or the upper Texas coast on Thursday afternoon.

Obviously, this is something that will be watched for over the next few days and I will keep you all updated.

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