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EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
08-08-2010, 11:58 AM
Post: #41
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
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08-08-2010, 12:18 PM
Post: #42
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
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08-08-2010, 12:18 PM
Post: #43
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
[Image: sa3_mmsp_am_48.png]

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08-08-2010, 12:19 PM
Post: #44
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
HPC

Quote:FEATURE CROSSING FLORIDA AND THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO...

PREFERENCE: SLOWER THAN THE NAM BY TUE NIGHT-WED... 16Z TPC/HPC
COORDINATION POSN OF 28N 86W AT 12Z WED

EACH MODEL HAS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT IDEAS WITH MID LVL DETAILS. THE
GFS IS ON THE NRN FRINGE OF GUIDANCE WITH ITS PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND WEAKER THAN MOST OTHER SOLNS WITH
THE REMAINING MID LVL REFLECTION CROSSING THE GULF... SO ITS SFC
REFLECTION IS MORE DIFFUSE THAN THE AVERAGE OF OTHER SOLNS. THE
12Z UKMET THRU F72 EARLY WED STRAYS TO THE E/NE OF THE PRIMARY
CLUSTER OF SOLNS BY LATE TUE-WED. MEANWHILE THE NAM IS ON THE ERN
SIDE OF THE SPREAD AS OF LATE MON BUT GRADUALLY TRENDS FASTER SO
THAT IT IS IN THE WRN HALF OF THE SPREAD BY WED. PER 16Z TPC/HPC
MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION... PREFER A TRACK THAT YIELDS A SFC POSN
OF 28N 86W FOR F72/12Z WED. BASED ON A DAY 4 POSN OF 29N 89W THE
INTERPOLATED POSN FOR F84 LATE WED WOULD BE 28.5N 87.5W. THE NAM
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO STG ALOFT AND DOES BECOME TOO FAST LATER IN
THE FCST BUT OTHERWISE IT PROVIDES A BETTER DEFINED FEATURE CLOSER
TO CONSENSUS.

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08-08-2010, 12:38 PM
Post: #45
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
2pm

Quote:tlantic Graphical TWO Area 2 closeup

[Image: atl2.gif] Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO 2. A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

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08-08-2010, 12:52 PM
Post: #46
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
[Image: allfcsts_loop_wbg.gif]

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08-08-2010, 01:09 PM
Post: #47
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
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08-08-2010, 01:13 PM
Post: #48
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
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08-08-2010, 01:31 PM
Post: #49
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
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08-08-2010, 01:39 PM
Post: #50
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
ECMWF

[Image: 12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP048.gif]

72 hrs

[Image: 12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP072.gif]

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