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HURRICANE IGOR
09-08-2010, 12:43 AM
Post: #11
HURRICANE IGOR
Another fish?

[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
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09-08-2010, 05:09 AM
Post: #12
HURRICANE IGOR
2AM - now 50%

Quote:Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup

[Image: atl1.gif] Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED NEAR ANAREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPEVERDE ISLANDS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS SYSTEM AREEXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ADDITIONALDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

"The ultimate judge of your swing is the flight of the ball." - Ben Hogan
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09-08-2010, 05:14 AM
Post: #13
HURRICANE IGOR
Rob Lightbown:

Quote:Tropical Weather Discussion

Issued: Wednesday, September 8, 2010 535 am EDT/435 am CDT
Would you like these tropical weather discussions, including unscheduled updates on any tropical storms or hurricanes that are out there, e-mailed to you? If so, just send an e-mail to: [[email protected]"]crs.com[/EMAIL] and you will be added to our mailing list.
For A Plethora Of Tropical Weather Information Including Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: [url="httom/?page_id=29[/COLOR][/url].
Ex-Tropical Depression Gaston:

There really isn’t much to talk about with the remnants of Gaston, which is located about 150 miles south of Hispaniola this morning. Development is no longer expected from this system and this will be the last discussion issued on Gaston unless regeneration occurs, which is not expected.
Tropical Disturbance In Eastern Atlantic Likely To Develop (Invest 91-L):

An organizing area of disturbed weather has been labeled Invest 91-L by the National Hurricane Center. This system is located very close to the southernmost Cape Verde Islands this morning and I think its fairly likely that this system will be our next named storm (Igor) by this weekend. Right now, environmental conditions are unfavorable for development, however, conditions are expected to become favorable by about Friday or Saturday and remain favorable right into next week.
The global model guidance unanimously forecast this system to become a very large and powerful hurricane by next week as it tracks westward between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa. It should be noted that this system is still at least 7 to 8 days from threatening any land areas and we have plenty of time to keep an eye on it. The latest European model run forecasts this system to be a potential threat to the northernmost Leeward Islands by late next week. It is way too premature to tell whether this system will threaten or impact the Lesser Antilles or further down the road the US coastline. It is highly possible that Igor to be will curve out into the open Atlantic, but that depends on how strong a trough of low pressure will be tracking off of the US East Coast early next week. The European model is the weakest with this trough while the GFS model is the strongest.
So, there is plenty of time to monitor this system and I will keep you all updated on the latest.
Northwest Caribbean Development Next Week??:

Two of the global models, the European and NOGAPS models, forecast that the combination of a tropical wave now approaching the Windward Islands and moisture and instability advecting northward from South America will lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean around Wednesday of next week and the European model, in particular forecasts it to cross the Yucatan Peninsula late next week and be located just off of the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula around next Saturday. None of the other global models show this type of scenario.
To be honest, I am pretty skeptical regarding the model forecasts from especially the NOGAPS and to a certain extent the European model. I would like to see at least another couple of days worth of model consistency and also to see if other model guidance jumps on board regarding this potential. With that said, this scenario will be monitored very closely and interests in the western Caribbean should also monitor things closely for the next several days, in case this comes to fruition.

"The ultimate judge of your swing is the flight of the ball." - Ben Hogan
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09-08-2010, 06:19 AM
Post: #14
HURRICANE IGOR
[Image: clarki11latest.png]
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09-08-2010, 06:45 AM
Post: #15
HURRICANE IGOR
[Image: 01b4f9e2.gif]

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09-08-2010, 06:46 AM
Post: #16
HURRICANE IGOR
[Image: storm_91.gif]

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09-08-2010, 06:47 AM
Post: #17
HURRICANE IGOR
70%

Quote:HOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE NEAR A
WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER
THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

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09-08-2010, 07:16 AM
Post: #18
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[Image: WMBas32.png]

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09-08-2010, 10:02 AM
Post: #19
HURRICANE IGOR
The 11:00 update has advanced 91L to TS Igor. WOW that's quick!

Location: 13.7°N 23.5°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
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09-08-2010, 10:02 AM
Post: #20
HURRICANE IGOR
Wow. Invest to TS. Hello Igor
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