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RICHARD 19L
10-16-2010, 04:58 AM
Post: #21
RICHARD 19L
2AM

Quote:TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA IS
LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA AND ANDROS ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO
SOUTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N13W 09N16W 04N30W 06N39W 05N47W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 07N16W TO
13N17W TO 18N15W THAT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N-14N BETWEEN 11W-22W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 05N39W TO 13N35W. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS POOLING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GENERATING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
03N-10N BETWEEN 30W-44W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 24W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
21N70W PRODUCING MAINLY SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ADVECTION OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA NORTHWARD TO OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS
ENHANCED BY THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE NW GULF CENTERED NEAR
28N93W. MAINLY N-NE SURFACE WINDS UP TO 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS
THE BASIN THIS EVENING. THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
TRANSLATES E-NE LOCATING OVER THE W ATLC BY TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
21N70W COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. VERY DRY EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 13N E OF 77W ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY...MAINLY W OF 77W...MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ADVECTING FROM ONGOING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
NW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF
A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL PANAMA NEAR 09N79W TO
15N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN 72W-81W
AND S OF 15N BETWEEN 81W-85W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND EASTERN NICARAGUA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY WINDS BELOW 20 KT
AS CAPTURED ON AN EARLIER 16/0144 UTC ASCAT PASS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N63W EXTENDING SW
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N78W. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF
PAULA...A 1011 MB LOW...IS CENTERED AT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT
IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA CENTERED NEAR 23N79W. WHILE NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OR
REMNANT LOW...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT AND FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 76W-79W. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AND AN ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. SE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED N
OF HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS E TO 23N57W
THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N54W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N53W. A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 30W-42W IS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT MEANDERS ALONG 32N32W 26N40W 25N50W 24N56W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 25N WITHIN 240 NM
EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH W OF 40W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND
A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N28W COVERS THE FAR E ATLC AND
SUPPORTS OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS N OF 17N SE OF A LINE FROM
32N25W TO 17N43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

"The ultimate judge of your swing is the flight of the ball." - Ben Hogan
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10-16-2010, 07:02 AM
Post: #22
RICHARD 19L
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10-16-2010, 07:03 AM
Post: #23
RICHARD 19L
JM

Quote: September 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated September 2010 the fourth warmest September on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - September, as the warmest such period on record. September 2010 global ocean temperatures were the ninth warmest on record, and land temperatures were also the ninth warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record, according to both Remote Sensing Systems data and University of Alabama Huntsville data. The year-to-date period January-September is the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data, behind 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from September 2010.

[Image: sep2010.gif]
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Fourteenth warmest September on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 14th warmest September in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to September, was the 24th warmest such period on record. Ten states had a top-ten warmest September on record--Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. No states recorded a top-ten coldest September.

U.S. precipitation near average
For the contiguous U.S., September 2010 ranked near average. However, there were large regional variations in precipitation. Wyoming had its driest September in the 116-year record, and three other states had top-ten driest Septembers--Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida. Minnesota had its wettest September on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest September--North Dakota, South Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin, and Missouri.

La Niña intensifies to the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.8°C below average during the first two weeks of October, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.53°C below average (as of October 10.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of October, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual.

September 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in September 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2008, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice volume in September was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. The reported volume of 1,000 cubic miles (4,000 cubic kilometers) was 70 percent below the 1979 - 2009 September average of 3,200 cubic miles (13,400 cubic kilometers). Sea ice volume accounts for sea ice extent as well as the thickness of ice beneath the ocean's surface. The Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation for most of September, but are now frozen shut again. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free. The 2010 Arctic melt season allowed for two sailing expeditions--one Russian and one Norwegian--to successfully navigate both the Northeast Passage and the Northwest Passage in a single season, the first time this feat has occurred in modern history.

New Caribbean disturbance
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama, but the latest 2am EDT (6Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression in the region 3 - 5 days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts that the storm will move northwest towards the Cayman Islands, while the GFS model takes the storm west-northwest over Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras can expect a period of very heavy rains from the disturbance Saturday night through Tuesday.

[Image: oct16_megi.jpg]
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Megi at 3:30am EDT 10/16/10. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Typhoon Megi
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Megi has attained Category 3 strength, and is predicted to intensify into a 150 mph supertyphoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday morning. If this forecast verifies, Megi would be the strongest tropical cyclone to strike land globally in 2010. The globe has had an unusually low number of landfalling major hurricanes this year. Only one Category 4 or stronger storm has hit land--Tropical Cyclone Tomas, which hit Fiji on March 15 as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Tomas killed 3 people and did $45 million in damage to Fiji, and was the strongest storm to hit Fiji since Cyclone Bebe in 1972. The only other major tropical cyclones in 2010 to make landfall were Tropical Cyclone Oli, which passed through French Polynesia on February 5 as a Category 3 storm; Tropical Cyclone Rene, which hit Tonga in the South Pacific as a Category 3 storm on February 15; Typhoon Fanapi, which hit Taiwan on September 19 as a Category 3 storm; and Hurricane Karl, which hit Mexico near Veracruz on September 17 as a Category 3 hurricane.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday or Monday morning.

Jeff Masters
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10-16-2010, 07:14 AM
Post: #24
RICHARD 19L
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10-16-2010, 07:15 AM
Post: #25
RICHARD 19L
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10-16-2010, 08:22 AM
Post: #26
RICHARD 19L
looking good so far.
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10-16-2010, 08:23 AM
Post: #27
RICHARD 19L
richardginn Wrote:looking good so far.

It's a shame that the next storm will have a wussy name Smile

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10-16-2010, 01:51 PM
Post: #28
RICHARD 19L
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10-16-2010, 02:59 PM
Post: #29
RICHARD 19L
ROLLTIDE Wrote:It's a shame that the next storm will have a wussy name Smile

My thoughts exactly...so how about some Lightbown:

Quote:Tropical Disturbance In The Southwest Caribbean:

A weak trough of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean this morning is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity. The latest global model guidance, including the GFS, NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET and even the NC Hurricane WRF model all forecast that tropical cyclone development will occur in this area as we get into Monday and especially Tuesday.

What is concerning is that the model guidance are showing a consensus that the upper level conditions will be fairly favorable leading to a significant hurricane in the southwest Caribbean by Thursday or Friday. The latest model guidance also have flipped towards a scenario that keeps Richard south of 15 or so North Latitude and coming ashore over central America by next week and dying out.

Some really interesting stats were posted on the weather forum Hardcoreweather.com GaWx:
For the period 1851-2009, I counted 64 Tropical Cyclones that were first declared in the Caribbean west of 75 West Longitude and that were in the Caribbean west of 75 West Longitude at some point betweem October 11 and October 31.

For those 64, here is the breakdown:
- 27 (42%) later hit the U.S. (17 of these 27 hit South Florida or 27% of the 64; 6 of these 27 hit North Carolina or 9% of the 64; 3 of these 27 hit both South Florida and North Carolina or 5% of the 64)
- 21 (33%) ended up missing the U.S. to the east or south
- 13 (20%) ended up dying over or immediately adjacent to either Mexico or Central America
- 3 (5%) died over either the Gulf of Mexico or Cuba

The various GFS model runs have shown the first three scenarios, all of which are reasonable possibilities based on these stats. However, a plurality hit the U.S and that scenario has occurred about twice as often as dying over/near Mexico or Central America.

So, the latest ideas by the various models of a track that takes it over Central America in about a week from now is a reasonable possibility given the climate stats stated above. However, I am not buying into any scenario posed by any of the model guidance until we get a well defined center formed in the southwest Caribbean. I strongly suspect that we will continue to see the model guidance flip and flop around with different scenarios over the weekend. To be frank and honest, I’m having a hard time believing the model scenarios that are laid out this morning. First, these same models forecast that Paula would track over Central America and die out when in reality it tracked northward into the Yucatan Channel. Second, climatology suggests that there is only a 20 percent chance of the Central America track happening and it would seem more likely that this system, which would be named Richard, would be pulled northward by any troughs of low pressures that are around.

So, what is most important right now is that I think we will see tropical cyclone occur in the southwest Caribbean on Monday or Tuesday and once this happens, then we should see the models come around to a more realistic and consistent forecast. So, this is something to keep a close eye on over the weekend into next week and I will be monitoring this potential closely and will keep you all updated.
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10-16-2010, 03:00 PM
Post: #30
RICHARD 19L
TWO

Quote:000
ABNT20 KNHC 161735
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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