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TROPICAL STORM DON Updated Graphics in Post #1
07-22-2011, 08:54 AM
Post: #31
TROPICAL STORM DON Updated Graphics in Post #1
[Image: july.gif]

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07-22-2011, 09:10 AM
Post: #32
TROPICAL STORM DON Updated Graphics in Post #1
Please note that these tidbits do NOT reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be taken as such. While tropical cyclones exist in the Atlantic, the official NHC forecasts will be posted in the lower part of this blog. Please refer to those when making decisions, and heed the advisories and evacuation statements of your local National Weather Service Office.

If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems with the video, and please feel free to ask me any questions regarding what I talk about in these tidbits, or about the weather in general. You can post in either of my blogs or on Youtube. I will do my best to answer. Thanks for stopping by!

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[video=youtube;TLcJrSd1whc]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLcJrSd1whc[/video]

Bret and Cindy are leaving the scene today, and will soon be dissipated/extratropical. Our attention turns to the wave that we have been watching in the central Atlantic, which has now been tagged invest 90L. This wave will be moving a bit farther south than the models had it last week, and will pass very close to the big Caribbean islands, likely curving up towards the Bahamas and Florida early next week by Tuesday. Rains will come with this feature, but the question is whether tropical development may be an issue. The wave has a very broad circulation with it, wrapped up with some dry air, but popcorn convection going off west of the center since last night is indicating a moistening atmosphere ahead of the wave, and with an upper low backing westward ahead of it over the Caribbean, environmental conditions could favor some gradual development as it approaches the big Caribbean islands. As it moves farther north, the bit southern U.S. ridge may shear it a bit, limiting significant development until it is very close to the U.S. coastline. None of the models are appreciably excited about developing 90L, and most of them keep it open as it moves WNW. However, it is suspicious-looking enough to keep a close eye on, especially since it is aimed towards land. Notice that the pattern we were talking about last week is coming to fruition and aiming this feature towards the coast, rather than away from it.

A 2nd punch is coming from the wave behind 90L, which is also exhibiting broad turning SW of the Cape Verde Islands. The steering pattern should bring this wave into the same general area of the Bahamas, Florida, and NW Caribbean 4-6 days after 90L, making this pattern a one-two punch as we head into the first week of August. This 2nd wave may have a similar chance to develop, but again, no model currently develops it. However, with this pattern starting to aim these things at land multiple times in a row, both of these will be worth watching carefully. The pattern is going towards one in August that will favor tropical waves that have to come through the TUTT in the central Atlantic, but then find favorable conditions close to the U.S. coast and northern Caribbean islands. Such a pattern could easily get someone nailed with a potent storm sooner rather than later next month.

We shall see what happens!
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07-22-2011, 09:31 AM
Post: #33
TROPICAL STORM DON Updated Graphics in Post #1
[Image: trackearly3qht.png]

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07-22-2011, 09:38 AM
Post: #34
TROPICAL STORM DON Updated Graphics in Post #1
[Image: WMBds26.png]

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07-22-2011, 09:55 AM
Post: #35
TROPICAL STORM DON Updated Graphics in Post #1
Maybe this is the ONE.


Dianne
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07-22-2011, 10:06 AM
Post: #36
TROPICAL STORM DON Updated Graphics in Post #1
grammie Wrote:Maybe this is the ONE.

I don't see it making the GOM . It is more of an east coast threat if it can survive some pretty hostile conditions

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07-22-2011, 11:12 AM
Post: #37
TROPICAL STORM DON Updated Graphics in Post #1
[Image: AL902011_tracks.png]

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07-22-2011, 11:15 AM
Post: #38
TROPICAL STORM DON Updated Graphics in Post #1
Here's the part that concerns me, wether it's 90L or the next one or the next one....we seem to have a setup in place (as Levi32 pointed out) that would favor a landfalling storm in the southeast to be strengthening at landfall instead of weakening like we have had the last few years. I think the public will be caught off guard by that.

Crazy Dale
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07-22-2011, 11:51 AM
Post: #39
TROPICAL STORM DON Updated Graphics in Post #1
[Image: 110722163354_an.gif][Image: 110722162916_an.gif]

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07-22-2011, 11:52 AM
Post: #40
TROPICAL STORM DON Updated Graphics in Post #1
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest90
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

[Image: 12zatcfearlyinvest3.gif]


Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

[Image: 12zatcfearlyinvest3best.gif]


Early Model Wind Forecasts

[Image: 12zearly3.gif]

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