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TD EMILY UPDATED GRAPHICS POST #1
07-29-2011, 01:24 AM
Post: #11
TD EMILY UPDATED GRAPHICS POST #1
Here are the latest OFFICIAL model runs as of 29/00Z by the NHC

[Image: aal912011.jpg]

Retired from ASA now for some real flying
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07-29-2011, 02:07 AM
Post: #12
TD EMILY UPDATED GRAPHICS POST #1
Models have this thing on steroids!

[Image: ScreenHunter_65Jul290252.jpg]
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07-29-2011, 05:33 AM
Post: #13
TD EMILY UPDATED GRAPHICS POST #1
NHC model text:

PHP Code:
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI JUL 29 2011
 
DISCLAIMER
...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL91201120110729 0600 UTC
 
        
...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        
110729  0600   110729  1800   110730  0600   110730  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     8.5N  41.0W    9.2N  42.7W   10.2N  44.9W   11.6N  47.8W
BAMD     8.5N  41.0W    9.1N  43.2W   10.0N  45.6W   11.2N  48.1W
BAMM     8.5N  41.0W    9.1N  42.9W   10.0N  44.8W   11.1N  47.1W
LBAR     8.5N  41.0W    9.2N  43.5W   10.3N  46.3W   11.7N  49.1W
SHIP        25KTS          34KTS          44KTS          55KTS
DSHP        25KTS          34KTS          44KTS          55KTS
 
        
...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        
110731  0600   110801  0600   110802  0600   110803  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.9N  50.9W   14.6N  57.3W   16.0N  63.3W   17.1N  68.6W
BAMD    12.3N  50.9W   13.9N  56.2W   14.9N  60.8W   16.8N  64.2W
BAMM    12.1N  49.8W   13.3N  55.2W   14.1N  60.4W   16.1N  64.7W
LBAR    13.1N  52.0W   15.1N  57.1W   16.4N  61.2W   16.9N  66.0W
SHIP        67KTS          88KTS         101KTS         107KTS
DSHP        67KTS          88KTS         101KTS         107KTS
 
         
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   8.5N LONCUR =  41.0W DIRCUR 275DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 
=   8.2N LONM12 =  38.0W DIRM12 276DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 
=   7.9N LONM24 =  35.0W
WNDCUR 
=   25KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS 
1008MB OUTPRS 1012MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE 
=    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
WHXX01 KWBC 290615 

"The ultimate judge of your swing is the flight of the ball." - Ben Hogan
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07-29-2011, 05:38 AM
Post: #14
TD EMILY UPDATED GRAPHICS POST #1
[Image: wv-l.jpg]

"The ultimate judge of your swing is the flight of the ball." - Ben Hogan
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07-29-2011, 06:04 AM
Post: #15
TD EMILY UPDATED GRAPHICS POST #1
It looks like it will keep scooting to the west for the next few days. It also looks like there isn't much to stop it from developing.
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07-29-2011, 07:06 AM
Post: #16
TD EMILY UPDATED GRAPHICS POST #1
[Image: storm_91.gif]

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07-29-2011, 07:07 AM
Post: #17
TD EMILY UPDATED GRAPHICS POST #1
...
Quote:[h=2]Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup[/h]
[/HR] [Image: atl1.gif] Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

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07-29-2011, 07:10 AM
Post: #18
TD EMILY UPDATED GRAPHICS POST #1
[Image: gfs_ten_156l.gif]

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07-29-2011, 07:11 AM
Post: #19
TD EMILY UPDATED GRAPHICS POST #1
[Image: invest91l.2011072906_nest3.png]

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07-29-2011, 07:11 AM
Post: #20
TD EMILY UPDATED GRAPHICS POST #1
[Image: invest91l.2011072906_wind.png]

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