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HURRICANE IRENE UPDATED GRAPHICS POST#1
08-18-2011, 08:43 AM
Post: #31
HURRICANE IRENE UPDATED GRAPHICS POST#1
[Image: mainrfps.png]

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08-18-2011, 08:45 AM
Post: #32
HURRICANE IRENE UPDATED GRAPHICS POST#1
97L

Quote:BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108181330
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2011, DB, O, 2011081812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972011
AL, 97, 2011081812, , BEST, 0, 135N, 379W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

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08-18-2011, 08:50 AM
Post: #33
HURRICANE IRENE UPDATED GRAPHICS POST#1
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08-18-2011, 08:55 AM
Post: #34
HURRICANE IRENE UPDATED GRAPHICS POST#1
I just looked at the 6Z GFS, UKMET, EMCWF, CMC, GGEM and they all are in fairly good agreement about a track toward Florida and the East Coast.

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08-18-2011, 08:57 AM
Post: #35
HURRICANE IRENE UPDATED GRAPHICS POST#1
[Image: image.ashx?country=afwa&type=loop&sat=ir]

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08-18-2011, 08:59 AM
Post: #36
HURRICANE IRENE UPDATED GRAPHICS POST#1
I am on the road today so the updates will be very few today . Models will be posted when I make my next gas stop in about 1 hour

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08-18-2011, 09:21 AM
Post: #37
HURRICANE IRENE UPDATED GRAPHICS POST#1
ROLLTIDE Wrote:I am on the road today so the updates will be very few today . Models will be posted when I make my next gas stop in about 1 hour

Drive safe and be careful ;-)

[FONT="Arial Black"]Jackie[/FONT]
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08-18-2011, 09:34 AM
Post: #38
HURRICANE IRENE UPDATED GRAPHICS POST#1
[Image: anim.gif]

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08-18-2011, 10:23 AM
Post: #39
HURRICANE IRENE UPDATED GRAPHICS POST#1
JM:

Quote:By Dr. Jeff Masters

<sCRIPT type=text/javascript> (function($){ $("div#socialWeather > a[id^='social']").each(function(index) { $(this).hover(function () { $(this).parent().css('background-position','0px -' +(26*(index+1))+ 'px'); }, function () { $(this).parent().css('background-position','0px 0px'); }); }); $("#socialTwitter").click(function() { locationurl="http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wunderground.com%2Fblog%2FJeffMasters%2Farticle.html"; var miniurl = $.ajax({ url: "/miniurl/api.php?url="+locationurl, async: false }).responseText; if(miniurl && miniurl.length>0) pageurl="http://twitter.com/share?url=" + encodeURIComponent(miniurl) + "&via=wunderground&related=wunderground&text=Caribbean+disturbance+93L+to+drench+Honduras%3B+97L+disturbance+worth+watch​ing"; else pageurl="http://twitter.com/share?url=" + locationurl + "&via=wunderground&related=wunderground&text=Caribbean+disturbance+93L+to+drench+Honduras%3B+97L+disturbance+worth+watch​ing"; window.open(pageurl,"twitterwindow","menubar=1,resizable=0,width=550,height=370"); return false; }); })(jQuery); </sCRIPT>Published: 10:07 AM CDT on August 18, 2011
[Image: aug18_sat.jpg]
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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08-18-2011, 10:28 AM
Post: #40
HURRICANE IRENE UPDATED GRAPHICS POST#1
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