Post Reply 
T.D. LEE
08-29-2011, 08:29 PM
Post: #31
T.D. LEE
/...
Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
633 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2011




LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE FORECAST HAS BECOME
POTENTIALLY MORE INTERESTING IN THE LONG TERM...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOMETHING TROPICAL DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF DURING THE
WEEKEND.

THE STUBBORN MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS FOR THE MOST PART
DOMINATED THE SUMMER ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BACK
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. INITIAL AND LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER
POOL OVER MOISTURE CURRENTLY NEAR THE YUCATAN ARRIVES INTO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS GULF WATERS AND COASTAL BEND WEDNESDAY AND IS IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. INHERITED SCATTERED
POPS ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH PRECIP IN THE FORECAST WENT
CLOSER TO THE MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS AS OPPOSED TO THE BIAS
CORRECTED...WHICH WE HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO ALL SUMMER.

BEYOND FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...AND
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON IF...WHEN...AND WHERE A POSSIBLE CLOSED TROPICAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS. THE 12Z GFS...ECMWF...GEM HAVE ALL COME IN WITH
SOME TYPE OF CLOSED SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. WHATEVER SYSTEM MIGHT DEVELOP...IT LOOKS TO
INITIALLY GET CAUGHT IN WEEK STEERING CURRENTS AND MAY NOT MOVE
MUCH. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST AND THE CLOSED SYSTEM DRIFTING SOUTHWEST JUST OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE GEM TAKES THE SYSTEM IN SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE AND THE NAM IN ACROSS LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME IT IS WAY
TO EARLY TO SAY WHAT...IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DEVELOP AND WHERE. BUT
OBVIOUSLY IF SOMETHING DOES IT COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS TO THE
FORECAST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEEDLESS
TO SAY THOSE WITH WITH LABOR DAY WEEKEND PLANS ON THE TEXAS COAST
NEED TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP A SHARP EYE ON THE WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME HAVE HEDGED THE POPS (SCATTERED ACROSS THE EAST) AND TEMPS
(CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE) UNTIL THE FORECAST BECOMES CLEARER.

[FONT="Arial Black"]Jackie[/FONT]
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-29-2011, 08:57 PM
Post: #32
T.D. LEE
I feel like a freaking kid on Christmas Eve, I can't wait to see what tomorrow's forecast brings! A nice tropical storm would be just what the doctor ordered for us.
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-29-2011, 09:29 PM
Post: #33
T.D. LEE
halecjaclyn Wrote:Well that just figures, lol. We haven't had any real rain, and the first weekend we have plans (Kid Rock at an outdoor theatre) here it comes. Oh well.

Saw Kid Rock at Jazzfest a few months ago..............pretty good.........I'm your rock n roll jesus!!!
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-29-2011, 09:29 PM
Post: #34
T.D. LEE
Keeping a close eye on the Gulf of Mexico Satellite loops. Watching for any spin ups. A little line of convection right off the western Yucatan.... Too soon to tell but there will no sneaking up on us!!!
Smile
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-29-2011, 11:01 PM
Post: #35
T.D. LEE
Local met (KHOU) mentioning possibility of tropical weather towards the weekend, seems not to be overly concerned - just excited about the possibility of rain.
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-29-2011, 11:30 PM
Post: #36
T.D. LEE
Local channel KTRK says increased chance of rain for the weekend. No mention of tropics.

[FONT="Comic Sans MS"]just another day in paradise.....:[/FONT]:shades_smile:
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-30-2011, 01:35 AM
Post: #37
T.D. LEE
....

Only people with oversized egos believe that mankind has caused global warming.

Scientific Consensus is an Oxymoron
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-30-2011, 02:25 AM
Post: #38
T.D. LEE
GFS is now showing Sept 3rd a Trop Storm hitting LA
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-30-2011, 05:22 AM
Post: #39
T.D. LEE
N.O. NWS long range forecast this morning;

Quote:MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR BUT QUITE DIFFERENT AT THE SAME TIME
FOR LATE THIS WEEK FROM 24 HRS AGO.
SIMILAR IN THE FACT THAT A WET
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP
FOR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST GRADUALLY
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
.
THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT
MODELS NOW SHOW AN UPPER
AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN GULF THE END OF THIS WEEK
AND
MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE LA GULF
COAST
.
GFS BRINGS THIS TROPICAL WAVE FURTHER NORTH BEFORE TAKING IS
BACK SOUTHWEST
AS
THE SYSTEM IS NOT PICKED UP BY NORTHERLY STREAM
TROUGH
. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW
.
THIS SETUP CAN POTENTIALLY BRING A SHARP GRADIENT OF VERY HIGH
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO AT LEAST COASTAL PARISHES
AND
INLAND
DEPENDENT ON THE LOW
/S LOCATION. B/
C THIS IS THE FIRST RUN MODELS
HAVE SHOWN THIS SCENARIO
...
HAVE HELD OFF ON JUMPING ON THE RAIN
DELUGE BAND WAGON
. BUT DID BUMP POPS UP SLIGHTLY
. IF
ANYTHING...SHOULD GET SOME RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND
RELIEF FROM NEAR
RECORD TEMPS OF LATE
.


"The ultimate judge of your swing is the flight of the ball." - Ben Hogan
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-30-2011, 05:26 AM
Post: #40
T.D. LEE
Rob Lightbown:

Quote:Rob Lightbown on August 30, 2011, 6:12 am

Potential Development In The Gulf Of Mexico Late This Week Into This Weekend:
I am closely monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Caribbean that is forecast to track into the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours and potentially develop into a tropical storm this weekend in the western Gulf of Mexico. All of the global model guidance are now on board with this type of scenario with the GFS model forecasting a track that slowly moves along the central and western coast of Louisiana late this weekend and then along the Texas coast as we get into Monday and Tuesday. The European model, on the other hand, forecasts that this system will track onshore into south Texas next Tuesday as a upper end tropical storm or a hurricane. The NAM model, for what its worth, forecasts that this disturbance will track into the Gulf of Mexico during the day Wednesday and develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm by Thursday. The NAM model also forecasts that this system may develop quickly as it nears the Texas coast by this weekend.
Given the fact that we have a tropical disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean that will track into the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday and also that environmental conditions are expected to be quite favorable in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend; I think the chances of tropical development is fairly high. The NAM model may be a little fast with the development and I foresee a scenario that this develops into a tropical storm as it nears the Texas coast on Sunday and Monday and takes advantage of the geography of the coast to create an increase in spin. Where on the Texas coast could this potential tropical storm make landfall? I am leaning towards the central and lower Texas coast given the overall synoptic setup of high pressure to the north.
What is potentially awesome news is that the Louisiana and Texas coasts may receive some much needed rainfall this coming weekend into next week. I will be monitoring this tropical disturbance over the coming days and will keep you all updated.
Western Caribbean Satellite Image:
[Image: avn-l.jpg]
[Image: vis-l.jpg]
[Image: wv-l.jpg]

"The ultimate judge of your swing is the flight of the ball." - Ben Hogan
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 


Forum Jump:


User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)