T.D. LEE

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[chasjay]

Interesting site. Water temps in specific areas.

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/wgof.html

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NHC

Quote:CARIBBEAN SEA... HIGH MOISTURE VALUES EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY COVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 72W-85W. THIS HIGH MOISTURE IS HELPING SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WITH THE 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS THE NW BASIN MOVING THE MOISTURE ALOFT TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 72W IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOW TOP SHOWERS MOVING ALONG WITH THE ELY TRADEWIND SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KT. EXPECT THE DRIER AIR ALOFT TO FILTER WWD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PUSHING THE HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE WEST BASIN AND S-SE GULF OF MEXICO.

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slackuweather

Quote:Will Texas be the Next Target for a Hurricane?
Alex Sosnowski
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Aug 29, 2011; 12:11 PM ET
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There is a possibility that more than just tropical moisture flows into Texas starting later this week.

An upcoming area of disturbed weather in the western Gulf of Mexico bears watching from Louisiana to Texas and northeastern Mexico.

The tropics may yet lend a hand in the Texas drought situation as it appears a system rolling through the western Caribbean now may later gel in the western Gulf of Mexico.

That system is rather disorganized at this time, but there is room for development late in the week.

The seriousness of the drought and heat in Texas goes without saying, and most of Texas would be willing to take a hit from a tropical storm or minimal hurricane to bring a change.

We are not going to say either is definitely coming to Texas at this point, but there will be a disturbance milling around in the western Gulf of Mexico during the second half of this week.

If that system is able to avoid land long enough, shifting weather patterns up north and to the west could allow it to organize, strengthen and eventually drift toward Texas real estate.

Interests in the Gulf of Mexico and the central and western Gulf coast should continue to monitor the situation.

According to Long Range Expert Paul Pastelok, "At the very least it does appear that there will be some rain getting into eastern Texas starting later this week, especially south and east of Dallas."

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[weller1]

can anyone tell me the accuracy of the nam model? http://weather.unisys.com/nam/nam.php?pl...&inv=0&t=l thanks

[chasjay]

weller1 Wrote:can anyone tell me the accuracy of the nam model? http://weather.unisys.com/nam/nam.php?pl...&inv=0&t=l thanks

check with me in a week or so.........

.sorry about that SA remark, but I couldn't resist......

I don't know the historical accuracy of any of the models

[Daniel294]

weller1 Wrote:can anyone tell me the accuracy of the nam model? http://weather.unisys.com/nam/nam.php?pl...&inv=0&t=l thanks

NAM is not a great tropical model.

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Nam is very poor with Tropical Systems