TROPICAL STORM NATE

[witchwriter]

damn it's gonna be an active few weeks to come.....

[pullenr]

Nate in the Gulf?

[GRD6323]

Maybe the nam wasn`t that far off after all, just got confused having Lee loop back to the southern gulf.

[weller1]

help hardcore,! you all use your juju for some rain for texas please!! as of dec till now we have lost 3.5 million acres to wildfires and more every day!!! thank you! as of today fires..http://ticc.tamu.edu/Response/FireActivity/default.aspx

[ROLLTIDE]

GRD6323 Wrote:Maybe the nam wasn`t that far off after all, just got confused having Lee loop back to the southern gulf.

That's not Lee it's a surface low forming off the cold front

[jackkip]

ok, this is not good. I am suppose to leave next week for Vegas. It will be hard to concentrate on slot machines if something is churning in the Gulf/carybaby

[cfred]

1st of all, pretty sure no level of concentration will help you with the slots! 2nd, unfortunately, those of us in Texas don't have to worry much. Go to Vegas and rock it out!

[sircane]

Looks like it's going to be interesting a week or so from now!

[jackkip]

cfred Wrote:1st of all, pretty sure no level of concentration will help you with the slots! !

You sound like my husband! ;-)

I just really wish it would rain. The fire danger is so high right now. Seem like all the news stories tonight on the local news were brush fire after brush fire. One idiot was hauling a barbecue pit behind his truck. It was still hot and apparently had embers . He caught the grass on fire along the road. This evening at sunset the sky was mostly pinks
and reds. Very eerie. Still smell smoke in the air and I am 150 miles away from Austin.....

[dkmac]

Crown:

Quote:[h=2]Major Hurricane Katia Tracking To The Northwest Will Bring Dangerous Rip Currents To The US East Coast; Tropical Development Is Possible In The Gulf Of Mexico Later This Week; Invest 95L In The Eastern Atlantic May Become Our Next Named Storm In The Next Few Days[/h]Rob Lightbown on September 6, 2011, 7:10 am

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Tropical Development In The Gulf Of Mexico Possible This Week:
I am closely monitoring an area of thunderstorms now embedded deep in the Bay of Campeche. Most of the model guidance continues to forecast that this disturbed weather will develop sometime between Thursday and Saturday. The European model and the GFS model have switched forecasts since yesterday with the European model forecasting a track that takes this system into the Florida Panhandle by Sunday and the GFS model forecasting a track westward into Tampico, Mexico on Monday.
As I mentioned yesterday, I think the westward track may be incorrect given that we have a high pressure ridge over the southwestern United States and a mean deep layer trough of low pressure over the eastern United States.
Based on that, I think we will see a tropical system develop in the Bay of Campeche over the next couple of days and then track northeastward on Friday and Saturday as it strengthens into a tropical storm. This system may then come ashore along the Florida Panhandle on Sunday as a tropical storm.
The NAM model, which actually did quite well with the forecast development of Irene, forecasts that this Bay of Campeche disturbance will develop into a tropical storm by late Wednesday or Thursday. After that, the NAM model forecasts this developing tropical storm to track northeastward by Friday and develop into a hurricane.
This potential development will be watched closely this week and I will keep you all updated.
Gulf of Mexico Satellite Image:

NAM Model Forecast For Friday Afternoon:

European Model Forecast For Saturday:



The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Wednesday Morning.

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