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TROPICAL STORM NATE
09-05-2011, 07:55 AM
Post: #1
TROPICAL STORM NATE
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09-05-2011, 07:56 AM
Post: #2
TROPICAL STORM NATE
...

Quote:NWS MLB

EXTENDED...FORECAST MORE UNCERTAIN WITH REGARD TO POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR
YUCATAN LATER IN THE WEEK AS ADVERTISED BY GFS AND TO SOME DEGREE
ECMWF. GFS NOT AS PRONOUNCED WITH SPINUP AND MOVEMENT TOWARD EASTERN
GULF AREA AS PREVIOUS RUNS. AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY LEE REMNANTS
MOVE AWAY FROM THE GENERAL REGION. CONSENSUS IN MEDIUM RANGE
HOWEVER CONTINUES TO INDICATE AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH A LIGHT WIND REGIME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DIURNAL
BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

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09-05-2011, 08:10 AM
Post: #3
TROPICAL STORM NATE
Rob Lightbown:

Quote:[h=2]Hurricane Katia Tracking Northwestward & Will Bring Very Rough Surf To The Beaches Along The US East Coast This Week; More Development Possible In The Gulf Of Mexico This Week; Invest 95L In The Eastern Atlantic Will Be Monitored For Development As It Tracks Westward[/h]Rob Lightbown on September 5, 2011, 8:08 am

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The Gulf Of Mexico Will Be Watched For Possible Development This Week:
A trough of low pressure extending south from the remnants of Lee is forecast to push southward over the next couple of days with a circulation spinning up in the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf of Mexico by late this week. This developing system is then forecast to slowly track northward this weekend with the European model forecasting this system to turn to the west and come ashore along the coast of Mexico next Monday as weak ridging builds to this system’s north. The GFS model, on the other hand, forecasts that this system will be pulled up to the northeast as it gets caught up in a trough of low pressure and makes landfall along the Florida Panhandle on Sunday.
I think the European model may be erroneous in the track to the west due to a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern United States and a track more towards the northeast from the southern Gulf of Mexico to the Florida Panhandle along the trough axis may be a more realistic scenario.
This potential development will be watched closely this week and I will keep you all updated.
[b]Gulf of Mexico Satellite Image:

[Image: avn-l.jpg]

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Tuesday Morning.



[/HR][/b]

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09-05-2011, 08:40 AM
Post: #4
TROPICAL STORM NATE
..

Quote: Miami NWS Discussion:

EXTENDED PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE SURFACE REMNANTS OF
LEE AND APPROACHING HURRICANE KATIA BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DUE TO
WIND CIRCULATION ABOUT THE 2 SYSTEMS AND WILL POSSIBLY MOVE INTO
N/CENTRAL FLA. THIS SHOVES THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTHWARD OVER S FLA
AS WELL. BUT THE POTENTIAL LOW DEVELOPING IN THE SW GULF OF MEX
MAY PULL DRIER AIR NORTHWARD AGAIN OVER S FLA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A
LOT NEEDS TO HAPPEN TO PULL OFF A WETTER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND A
DRIER WEEKEND SCENARIO. SO...WILL GO WITH CLIMO AT THIS TIME BUT
EXPECT AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

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09-05-2011, 08:44 AM
Post: #5
TROPICAL STORM NATE
BOC - YES, BUT:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
626 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
Quote:GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER THIS WEEK ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THOUGH THEY DIVERGE ON WHEN AND WHERE THE LOW
EVENTUALLY GOES. GIVEN THE PROGGED SYNOPTIC PATTERN...IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT THIS FEATURE WILL POSE A PROBLEM FOR OUR REGION.

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09-05-2011, 09:32 AM
Post: #6
TROPICAL STORM NATE
....

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09-05-2011, 10:28 AM
Post: #7
TROPICAL STORM NATE
Day 6
[Image: gfsx_500p_6d.gif]

Day 7
[Image: gfsx_500p_7d.gif]

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09-05-2011, 11:01 AM
Post: #8
TROPICAL STORM NATE
Texas is literally burning up. We need some sort of tropical influence to help ease the pain. Reported that over 300 homes lost in the Bastrop Fire, and many other fires ongoing in central Texas. Come on tropics!
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09-05-2011, 11:44 AM
Post: #9
TROPICAL STORM NATE
6Z GFS
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09-05-2011, 11:54 AM
Post: #10
TROPICAL STORM NATE
Please note that these tidbits do NOT reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be taken as such. While tropical cyclones exist in the Atlantic, the official NHC forecasts will be posted in the lower part of this blog. Please refer to those when making decisions, and heed the advisories and evacuation statements of your local National Weather Service Office.

If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems with the video, and please feel free to ask me any questions regarding what I talk about in these tidbits, or about the weather in general. You can post in either of my blogs or on Youtube. I will do my best to answer. Thanks for stopping by!

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[video=youtube;TqxmFCXgTwQ]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqxmFCXgTwQ[/video]

Hurricane Katia is turning into an absolutely gorgeous storm, with a large, clear, contracting eye that is making Katia look somewhat annular, though she still has spiral bands and thus fails to meet that definition. Her outflow is excellent, and although we expected her to be a major hurricane, she may even exceed the maximum intensity of Cat 3 that I set for her. She already looks like a Cat 3 if not a Cat 4, despite the current NHC intensity of Cat 2. Katia should track right between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda as I expected, and although the fragility of the pattern has made the eastern U.S. nervous because of a few model runs, it looks like the escape out to sea that we have been talking about will occur, sparing basically everyone, which is nice. High surf and rip currents will be a concern along the eastern seaboard as Katia passes by to the east.

Lee is starting to leave the north gulf coast behind, but he has a tail sticking down into the Gulf of Mexico that the models say will try to develop near the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula in 3-5 days. Such a feature would be under weak steering currents, but would likely drift NNE towards the north gulf coast. Conditions don't look to favor anything strong, but we will keep an eye on the area for more mischief from the son of Lee.

Next in line we have a couple of tropical waves behind Katia, the 2nd one being invest 95L, a nice-looking wave with very recognizable rotation on satellite imagery. The models aren't too hyped up about this wave, but keep it as a defined entity as it moves WNW towards the Caribbean islands, and thus it should be watched. A bigger concern may be the next feature that comes up right behind 95L and probably makes it into the northern Caribbean or the Greater Antilles in 10-15 days. The ECMWF is now joining the GFS in hinting at trouble in the western Caribbean after the 15th of September, as we have been discussing for the last couple of days. I explain again in the video today how the U.S. cooling off for the next week charges the country with air that starts piling up in the Caribbean, clashing with monsoon southwesterlies out of the Pacific, to create an environment that favors development of any tropical wave that gets in there. I think we will have a storm moving into the area of the NW Caribbean, southern Gulf of Mexico, or the Bahamas during the 3rd week of this month. Yes that is two weeks from now, but I think this pattern favors such an event. We'll see how it verifies. Such a storm would take one of two general tracks, either west into central America and Mexico, or north into the central-eastern gulf, Florida, or the Bahamas and SE U.S. area. I think a move to the north into the mean weakness over eastern North America is likely here, but it is still a long way off.

We shall see what happens!
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