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Tropical Storm Debby Gulf Of Mexico
06-14-2012, 07:45 PM (This post was last modified: 06-14-2012 07:47 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #41
Tropical Storm Debby Gulf Of Mexico
Worth at least watching...

JM

Quote:Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.

[Image: ep201203_sat.gif]
Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.
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06-14-2012, 08:35 PM
Post: #42
Tropical Storm Debby Gulf Of Mexico
Houston Weather Examiner
Larry Cosgrove

Quote:Discussion

The forecast through the next week or so is essentially a normal one for Houston, with partly cloudy, hot and humid conditions punctuated with afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The computer models say that the best chance of heavier rain will be in storms this weekend, but the odds on thunder are actually fairly impressive on any given day in a diurnal cycle. Temperatures will be uncomfortable more due to the high relative humidity than basic heat, with the Sonoran heat ridge staying near its favored position over the "Four Corners" vicinity.

Most of the "buzz" in the weather community concerns the threat for a tropical cyclone strike, which has been advertised by the numerical models for the period June 22 - 24. The consensus of these schemes is that a tropical depression or weaker tropical storm would develop in the Caribbean Sea, then track north and west with landfall possibilities in the western or central Gulf of Mexico. The main threats in such a scenario would be excessive rainfall, since the huge but poorly defined circulation would incorporate a diffuse frontal structure as well as several mesoscale disturbances from the tropics. I think the risk of a name storm is increasing, and would say that Texas carries the greater danger for landfall than other states or even northeastern Mexico. Since this feature is more than a week away from visiting, there is still time to get a better handle on the "where" and "how" so critical to hurricane season forecasting.

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06-15-2012, 07:48 AM
Post: #43
Tropical Storm Debby Gulf Of Mexico
Texas bound? LIX DISCO

Quote:MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A TROPICAL WAVE AT
THE VERY LEAST WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THEY ARE ACTUALLY PICKING UP ON A FEATURE IN THE PACIFIC
THAT MEANDERS ACROSS NORTHWARD ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF. FROM
THAT POINT IS WHERE INCONSISTENCY LIES. ECMWF ADVERTISES A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM US ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST US AND ONLY A
WEAK TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS WOULD KEEP WHATEVER DEVELOPS OR NOT MOVING WEST STRAIGHT INTO
MEXICO. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SUGGESTS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL BE STRONGER...WHICH WEAKENS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE MORE
AND THUS ALLOWS THE TROPICAL FEATURE TO TRACK MORE NORTH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST.

SO IN SHORT...NOT A BIG CONCERN WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT BUT STILL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED AS THINGS COULD CHANGE.

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06-15-2012, 08:37 AM
Post: #44
Tropical Storm Debby Gulf Of Mexico
ROLLTIDE Wrote:Texas bound? LIX DISCO


Roger.

Fla panhandle is calling for Atlantic High with easterlies all next week:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
722 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012


Quote:.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL SEND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREATE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AND MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF COAST. /13

&&

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06-15-2012, 01:19 PM
Post: #45
Tropical Storm Debby Gulf Of Mexico
0%

Quote:This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information Archived Outlooks

GIS data: .shp

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 115 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD LATER
TODAY...AND THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
NNNN

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06-15-2012, 01:25 PM
Post: #46
Tropical Storm Debby Gulf Of Mexico
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06-15-2012, 03:05 PM
Post: #47
Tropical Storm Debby Gulf Of Mexico
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06-15-2012, 03:05 PM
Post: #48
Tropical Storm Debby Gulf Of Mexico
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06-15-2012, 03:08 PM
Post: #49
Tropical Storm Debby Gulf Of Mexico
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06-15-2012, 04:11 PM
Post: #50
Tropical Storm Debby Gulf Of Mexico
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