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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
07-30-2012, 08:44 AM
Post: #21
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
Let the Cape Verde season begin...maybe.

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07-30-2012, 09:16 AM
Post: #22
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
an INVEST and a slight risk for me. Look for possible live streaming today Smile

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07-30-2012, 09:24 AM
Post: #23
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
[Image: storm_99.gif]

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07-30-2012, 10:06 AM
Post: #24
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
[Image: at201299_sat_2_anim.gif]


[Image: at201299_model.gif]


[Image: at201299_ensmodel.gif]


[Image: wind_850_f108.png?_=1343659651200]

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07-30-2012, 10:07 AM
Post: #25
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
Thanks Rollie!
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07-30-2012, 10:22 AM
Post: #26
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
Nice to have something to follow. But is this likely to be a fish?
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07-30-2012, 10:35 AM
Post: #27
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
Jeff Masters

Quote:[h=1]African tropical wave 99L has potential to develop[/h] By Dr. Jeff Masters

Published: 3:10 PM GMT on July 30, 2012
The first African tropical wave of 2012 with a potential to develop is Invest 99L, located in the Eastern Atlantic near 9°N 36°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa. Visible satellite loops show a large area of the surrounding atmosphere has a pronounced counter-clockwise spin, though there is no surface circulation. The disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity is pretty sparse, but appears to be slowly increasing. Water vapor satellite loops show that 99L has a reasonably moist environment, and the latest Saharan air layer analysis shows that the dry air from the Sahara lies well to the north of 99L. WInd shear over the disturbance is a light 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is well above the 26.5°C (80°F) threshold typically needed to allow formation of a tropical depression.

[Image: jul30b_sat.jpg]
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Forecast for 99L
Wind shear is expected to remain light for the next five days, and ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. The disturbance is at 9°N, which is close enough to the Equator that the storm will have some difficultly getting spinning. Most of the models are showing some slow development of 99L, with the storm reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, August 3. NHC gave 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. I expect the storm will have trouble with dry air at times this week as it crosses the Atlantic, but I give 99L a 50% chance of eventually developing into Tropical Storm Ernesto sometime in the next ten days. Residents and visitors to the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate heavy rains and strong winds from 99L beginning to affect the islands as early as Friday night. The long-range fate of 99L is uncertain, but a trough of low pressure is expected to be present over the Eastern U.S. early next week, which would be capable of turning 99L more to the northwest

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07-30-2012, 10:57 AM (This post was last modified: 07-30-2012 11:00 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #28
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
WAVETRAK-NORTH ATLANTIC:

IR W/LOW LEVEL WINDS:

[Image: windnatl.gif]

850MB VORTICITY:

[Image: vortnatl.gif]

SAHARAN AIR LAYER:

[Image: splitE.jpg]

WATER VAPOR UPPER:

[Image: wvhi.jpg]

WATER VAPOR MID:

[Image: wvmid.jpg]

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07-30-2012, 11:03 AM
Post: #29
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
SSMI/SSMIS-derived Total Precipitable Water - North Atlantic:


[Image: latest72hrs.gif]

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07-30-2012, 12:11 PM
Post: #30
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
Joe-Nathan Wrote:Let the Cape Verde season begin...maybe.

I hear that train-a-comin', it's comin' round the bend!
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