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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
07-30-2012, 12:53 PM
Post: #31
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
[video=youtube;l0Ky_D2GC7E]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0Ky_D2GC7E[/video]

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07-30-2012, 01:14 PM
Post: #32
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
...

Quote:[h=2]Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup[/h]
[/HR] [Image: atl1.gif] Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
1. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

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07-30-2012, 03:41 PM
Post: #33
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
IMPACT WX IS BEING BULLISH:

Disturbance 31 Advisory 1
Quote:Issued: Monday, July 30th 2012 1:44pm CDT

Current Location: 9.5N 36.0W
Geographic Reference: 1600 miles East-southeast of Barbados
Movement: West at 15 mph
Organizational Trend: Slowly Increasing
Chance of Development Within 48 Hours: 30 percent
Chance of Development Beyond 48 Hours: 60 percent

Changes From the Previous Forecast
This is our first forecast on Disturbance 31

Our Forecast
Disturbance 31 is likely to move slightly north of due west under the influence of a large area of high pressure to its north. This track is expected to take the system toward the islands of the eastern Caribbean by Saturday afternoon. The disturbance is currently broad and the showers and storms are not concentrated near the center. Therefore, the chance of development within the next 48 hours is estimated at 30 percent. However, conditions are expected to be favorable for development as it nears the Caribbean. The computer models also indicate development of the system. Therefore, the chance of the system becoming a tropical cyclone before reaching the Caribbean is estimated at 60 percent.

Expected Impacts on Land
Windward and Southern Leeward Islands: Tropical storm force winds and heavy rainfall are possible on Saturday.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Trinidad: Heaviest squalls and any tropical storm conditions should pass well to the north on Saturday.
Northeast Caribbean: Squalls with tropical storm force winds and high waves are possible on Saturday afternoon and Sunday.

The next statement will be issued to the web by 10 PM CDT.

Meteorologists: Derek Ortt / Chris Hebert

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07-30-2012, 07:43 PM
Post: #34
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
Looks like trouble... Good rotation and a decent environment. It's about that time.
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07-30-2012, 09:10 PM
Post: #35
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
[INDENT] [Image: storm_99.gif] [/INDENT]

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07-31-2012, 06:32 AM
Post: #36
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
[Image: two_atl.gif]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012


Quote:FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN

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07-31-2012, 06:34 AM
Post: #37
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
[Image: AL992012mlts.gif?1008581597]

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07-31-2012, 06:38 AM
Post: #38
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
LAST 3 HOURS OF RAIN ACCUM:

[Image: americas_3hrly_zoom.gif]

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07-31-2012, 06:45 AM (This post was last modified: 07-31-2012 06:48 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #39
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
NDBC STATION NEAR 99L

Conditions at 41041 as of
1050 GMT on 07/31/2012:

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 21.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.3 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.98 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.02 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.7 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.0 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.2 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 87.1 °F


Continuous Winds TIME

1050 ENE ( 68 deg ) 16.5 kts
1040 ENE ( 64 deg ) 16.9 kts
1030 ENE ( 66 deg ) 16.7 kts
1020 ENE ( 70 deg ) 18.6 kts
1010 ENE ( 75 deg ) 19.0 kts
1000 ENE ( 74 deg ) 18.6 kts

Supplemental Measurements Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) 1-Minute Wind Speed WSPD 1-Minute Wind Direction WDIR
1003 19.4 kts E ( 80 deg true )
Peak gust during the measurement hour
TIME
(GMT) Gust Direction GDR Gust Speed GST
1004 E ( 80 deg ) 21.4 kts

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07-31-2012, 06:52 AM
Post: #40
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
IMPACT WX UPDATE:

Disturbance 31 Advisory 3
Issued: Tuesday, July 31st 2012 6:16am CDT

Quote:Current Location: 9.5N 40.5W
Geographic Reference: 1350 miles East-southeast of Barbados
Movement: West at 12 mph
Organizational Trend: Slowly Increasing
Chance of Development Within 48 Hours: 40 percent
Chance of Development Beyond 48 Hours: 60 percent

Changes From the Previous Forecast
The chance of development within the next 48 hours has been increased from 30 percent to 40 percent. This is primarily due to the 48 hour time period being more in the likely window of development..

Our Forecast
Showers and storms have increased in association with Disturbance 31 this morning. Environmental conditions remain favorable for gradual development. The computer models are also still developing the system. The chance of development has been increased to 40 percent within the next 48 hours. The chance of development remains at 60 percent before the system reaches the islands of the eastern Caribbean. There has been little change to the track forecast. A track slightly north of due west is forecast due to a strong ridge of high pressure to the north. This is likely to bring the system through the Lesser Antilles on Saturday.

Expected Impacts on Land
Lesser Antilles: Tropical storm force winds and heavy rainfall are possible on Saturday.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Trinidad & Tobago: Heaviest squalls and any tropical storm conditions should pass well to the north on Saturday.
Northeast Caribbean: Squalls with tropical storm force winds and high waves are possible on Saturday afternoon and Sunday.

The next statement will be issued to the web by 3PM CDT.

Meteorologists: Derek Ortt

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