TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO

[Windwatcher]

Joe-Nathan Wrote:Let the Cape Verde season begin...maybe.

Woo-hoo! Something to talk about!

[ROLLTIDE]

Windwatcher Wrote:Woo-hoo! Something to talk about!

Really people think that this is going to do something ? I don't understand the hype for 99L that has a better chance to die than becoming a Hurricane

[Windwatcher]

But you're talking about it, aren't you? Who cares if it's a dud.

[ROLLTIDE]

[INDENT] [/INDENT]

[Katfive]

Windwatcher Wrote:But you're talking about it, aren't you? Who cares if it's a dud.

Same line of thinking after a night of drinking, and you and Roll are the last ones in the bar?

[Joe-Nathan]

[Joe-Nathan]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

Quote:FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EMBEDDED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
NEARLY MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.

2. A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM HISPANIOLA
EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
SPREAD OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN

[pcbjr]

OK Guys,

Leaving North Florida Thursday for a 10 day hike in western North Carolina.

Need to worry here, or up there?

/uhoh2

[ROLLTIDE]

Really 50% ?

[Joe-Nathan]

NHC:

Quote:1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.