HURRICANE KIRK

[ROLLTIDE]

[RegularGuy]

A little too early to say anything about that one. But it may come knocking!

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

...

Quote:BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
500 PM AST TUE AUG 28 2012

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...NO
THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 43.9W
ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ABOUT 1400 MI...2250 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/H...AND A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Alex]

...

Quote:BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIRK ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 28 2012

...DEPRESSION UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION -----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 45.0W
ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1440 MI...2315 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.0 WEST. KIRK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

[Smitter]

Geez NHC wasted no time naming Kirk LOL..... Looks like 98L will be Leslie if it blows up like the models are suggesting...

[ROLLTIDE]

n Rainbow



and visable

[Alex]

Upgraded to a Hurricane.

Quote:BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIRK ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 30 2012

...KIRK BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2012 SEASON...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 49.5W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

[hesposito]

Looks good in radar. Can't say I'm upset it should be a fish.

[Alex]

Saw this on my FB feed and had to see if it was legit or not. Sure enough it is. :icon_happ

Quote:TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

KIRK IS NOT EXPECTED TO LIVE LONG AND PROSPER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND A 1214 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT IT IS BECOMING ELONGATED. MAXIMUM RELIABLE WINDS IN THE ASCAT PASS WERE AROUND 45 KT SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. KIRK WILL LIKELY BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY OR DISSIPATE JUST BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 200 N MI TO ITS WEST.

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT KIRK HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING A VERY FAST 035/32. AN EVEN FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE FRONT TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 46.2N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 51.1N 30.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI