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HURRICANE SANDY
10-21-2012, 05:51 PM
Post: #11
HURRICANE SANDY
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10-22-2012, 09:42 AM
Post: #12
HURRICANE SANDY
Can anyone tell me what this will do for the water conditions at Panama City Beach, if it follows its current path, veering far away from PCB? I have an Ironman on November 3 and am praying for calm seas on that day for the swim, and calm winds for the bike! Now, I really hope it follows its current track but mostly, I hope it dies before it causes issues Wink

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10-22-2012, 10:54 AM
Post: #13
HURRICANE SANDY
Now TD 18

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10-22-2012, 10:55 AM
Post: #14
HURRICANE SANDY
Upgraded to a tropical depression...

Quote:BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 78.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

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10-22-2012, 12:10 PM
Post: #15
HURRICANE SANDY
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10-22-2012, 12:31 PM
Post: #16
HURRICANE SANDY
meowracer Wrote:Can anyone tell me what this will do for the water conditions at Panama City Beach, if it follows its current path, veering far away from PCB? I have an Ironman on November 3 and am praying for calm seas on that day for the swim, and calm winds for the bike! Now, I really hope it follows its current track but mostly, I hope it dies before it causes issues Wink

Not going to be a factor for anybody in the USA accept for the NC coast

Quote:RI THROUGH SUN WE WILL BE WATCHING A ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE REGION WHILE A TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. 00Z GFS AND MOST OF THE TROPICAL MODELS HAVE MORE OF A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK STARTING FRI NIGHT/SAT AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS HOWEVER A FEW OUTLIERS SUCH AS THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUE MORE OF A NORTHERLY TRACK CLOSER TO THE NC COAST ON SUN. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT STILL THINK THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...AS SUPPORTED BY A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS...WITHOUT A DIRECT IMPACT ACROSS EASTERN NC. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASED EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS AND INCREASED SURF AND RIP CURRENT THREAT ALONG THE BEACHES AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

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10-22-2012, 01:01 PM
Post: #17
HURRICANE SANDY
RECON IS INBOUND:

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 17:48Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 06

Quote:Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Monday, 17:45Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 17.2N 81.8W
Location: 148 miles (238 km) between the S and SSW (191°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,010 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 260° at 12 knots (From the W at ~ 13.8 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -14°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -21°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,570 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 16 knots (~ 18.4mph)

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10-22-2012, 02:06 PM
Post: #18
HURRICANE SANDY
Making a turn for an approach from the south:

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 18:56Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09


Quote:Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Monday, 18:49Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 13.4N 78.7W
Location: 298 miles (479 km) to the NW (314°) from Cartagena, Colombia.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 360 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 23°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 23°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1003 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind Direction: Bearing was unavailable.
Estimated Surface Wind Speed: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 1 knots (~ 1.2mph)

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10-22-2012, 03:32 PM
Post: #19
HURRICANE SANDY
I am heading to Florida on Sunday for vaca....this is not in the plans!

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10-22-2012, 10:29 PM
Post: #20
HURRICANE SANDY
jackkip Wrote:I am heading to Florida on Sunday for vaca....this is not in the plans!

It might give the east coast of Florida some wind, but it should not be a major player in our weather here.
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