HURRICANE SANDY

[Batt2fd]

[Xanadu]

My heavens I stopped in to see what was up because the mainstream media is acting like the NW is going to have another perfect storm like 1991 or something. Halloween perfect snow storm and severe hurricane doom for New York LOL. Will keep lurking and watching. It's cool to see action this late in the season!

[Chris48]

I am liking the ECMWF solution the more I look at it. The GFS underplays the neg. trough off the Florida west coast as it did last year (Tropical Tidbits provided that last little bit of information). It's all going to come down to does Sandy make the connection with the trough or does the trough take its time getting to sandy allowing sandy to shoot eastward? History tells us it makes the connection especially if the system remains unbalanced (IE not symmetrical). This may very well be a huge player for the New England states and I am on board with the ECMWF solution... this model is after all the best performing model by far this year.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]11684[/ATTACH]

[Batt2fd]

Levi's latedt video...

Quote:[video=youtube_share;Zrr8tO4VVkE]http://youtu.be/Zrr8tO4VVkE[/video]

[ROLLTIDE]

5pm

Quote:TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION OF THE STORM. THE CENTER OF SANDY IS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A BIT OF WESTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT
IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
LAND INTERACTION BEING THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT. BY 72 HOURS...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 30
KT AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND
LGEM GUIDANCE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS
SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE DERIVING SOME ENERGY FROM
BAROCLINIC SOURCES AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS POST-TROPICAL
STATUS AT DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
OR 020/5. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK FORECAST. AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE ON A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD HEADING WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHARP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO WEST OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE
STORM ON A NORTHWARD TRACK...NEAR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE FORECAST TRACK AND EXPANDING WIND RADII SUGGEST THAT A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
AND THE KEYS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 14.3N 77.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 15.7N 77.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 17.9N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 20.3N 76.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/1800Z 22.8N 76.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 26/1800Z 26.3N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 29.5N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 32.0N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[miamilisa]

woke up to a tropical storm watch.... all I want is minter (miami winter):plzdie:

[ROLLTIDE]

...

Quote:on Number 9
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 24, 2012
Share This Storm:


data from the hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Sandy has
reached hurricane strength. The aircraft just measured a peak
700-mb flight-level wind of 86 kt...and blending that with the peak
SFMR winds yields an initial intensity of 70 kt. The central
pressure has also fallen to 973 mb based on data from the plane.
Conditions appear favorable for additional intensification until
the cyclone moves near or over eastern Jamaica...and the official
forecast shows some strengthening at 12 hours. After that time...
additional land interaction with eastern Cuba and structural
changes due to interaction with an upper-level trough make the
intensity forecast highly uncertain. Increasing shear should result
in less favorable conditions for intensification via latent heat
release...but this could be compensated for by baroclinic
processes. Given the uncertainty...the NHC intensity forecast
remains unchanged at 36 hours and beyond...showing Sandy becoming a
powerful Post-tropical cyclone by the end of the period.


The initial motion is 015/11. The short-term track forecast
reasoning remains unchanged for the first couple of days...as Sandy
should move generally northward into a break in the subtropical
ridge over the Bahamas as it interacts with an upper-level low to
its west. Late in the period...there remains considerable spread in
the guidance due to differences in how much Sandy interacts with
another trough moving into the northeastern United States. The
ECMWF has been consistent in showing more interaction and a track
farther west...while the GFS shows Sandy turning east and missing
the trough. Overall more of the guidance has been trending toward
showing more interaction with the eastern U.S. Trough late in the
period. Given this trend...the NHC forecast has been adjusted to the
left at days 4 and 5...and lies roughly between the ECMWF and the
tvca multi-model consensus. Needless to say...the track forecast
uncertainty remains high at the end of the period.


Given the latest NHC forecast...a Hurricane Watch has been issued
for the central and northwest Bahamas...and the tropical storm
watch has been extended northward along the east-central Florida
coast.


Forecast positions and Max winds


init 24/1500z 17.1n 76.7w 70 kt 80 mph
12h 25/0000z 19.1n 76.5w 75 kt 85 mph
24h 25/1200z 21.9n 76.4w 65 kt 75 mph
36h 26/0000z 24.4n 76.4w 60 kt 70 mph
48h 26/1200z 26.3n 76.7w 60 kt 70 mph
72h 27/1200z 28.7n 76.0w 60 kt 70 mph
96h 28/1200z 32.0n 73.0w 60 kt 70 mph
120h 29/1200z 35.5n 70.0w 60 kt 70 mph...Post-tropical


$$

[Chris48]

Sandy... high wind and significant tornado threat Friday... Sandy continues to get stronger south of Jamaica. Currently as of 11 the winds are up to 80 mph and the pressure down to 973 MBs. Important note is that the pressure dropped just after the latest reading now down to 970 MBs. Two major things are going to influence this storm. Cuba for one... if the core gets disrupted enough it will allow the negative tilt trough sitting west of Florida to pull the system closer to us. Also, if the storm is disrupted enough it will allow the storms outflow to strengthen the ridge to the east pushing it closer to us that currently forecasted. It’s important to note that the European model indicates just this and some of the other reliable models are also starting to shift in our direction. The other influence is going to be the increasing sheer as the system approaches. Typically, this would rip the storm apart however is not the case with Sandy. Baraclonic influence will ensure the system stays alive and possibly even gets stronger under the intense shear conditions. Because of this we will have a higher than normal tornado threat Friday and the strong weather will be on the left side of the storm compared to the right side as it usually is.

[Batt2fd]

[ROLLTIDE]

Landfall

Quote:HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 320 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 ...SANDY MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 76.7W ABOUT 5 MI...8 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES THE EYE OF HURRICANE SANDY MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA NEAR KINGSTON AT APPROXIMATELY 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 MPH... 130 KM/H. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN